TS
Active - 12 Days RemainingTenaris
Recommendation Date: 11/03/2025 Update: 11/04/2025 14:35 PM (21 updates)
Trade Plan
Entry
$39.40-$40.20
Exit
$43.00-$43.00
Stop Loss
$38.90
Horizon
14d
Original Confidence
72%
Updated Confidence
72%
Score
0.860
Evidence
Price at Pick:$39.80
Prior Close:$39.94
MACD Value:0.879119
MACD Signal:0.319311
MACD Histogram:0.559808
Trend:Bullish Momentum
Support Est:$39.00
Resistance Est:$41.00
Current Quote
Price
—
Change
—
Open
—
Volume
—
Rationale
Steel spaghetti makers just turned on a $600M vacuum for their own stock. That’s not hopium, that’s a brrr-machine that buys dips when paper hands sell. TS is parked under its 52-week high like a sprinter on the blocks. RSI is screaming “overbought,” which in momentum land means: don’t fight it unless you like getting run over by a buyback bulldozer. I’m scooping at $39.4–$40.2, setting the shame line at $38.2, and aiming this rig at $43–$44. Is 20% in two weeks realistic for a $20B tuber? Probably not, but 10%+ on a clean breakout with the company itself stuffing shares in the woodchipper? Chef’s kiss. Macro could throw a wrench if oil/steel wobble, but that’s why we let Daddy Buyback do the heavy lifting. We ride the corporate bid, beep boop trend algos join, and we sell into the victory lap. From Luxembourg to Tendietown, we’re punching tickets.
Tenaris announced it is commencing a $600 million second tranche of its $1.2 billion share repurchase program. Large, active buybacks are among the most reliable, tradeable catalysts for near-term upside because they (1) provide real, price-insensitive demand, (2) signal management’s confidence and cash-generation strength, and (3) often suppress drawdowns during market chop. The release is fresh (yesterday), bilingual, and from the company, which increases credibility and the likelihood of execution starting immediately. That timing aligns with a 2-week swing window where repurchases can meaningfully absorb supply and facilitate a breakout.
Technically, TS is well-positioned. The last price is 39.80 with a prior close of 39.94, sitting just below the 52-week high of 40.87. Momentum is strong: MACD histogram is solidly positive, EMAs (9/21/50 days at ~37.70/~36.57/~36.06) are rising, and RSI around 72 indicates overbought but in a constructively trending tape—classic for buyback-driven grinds. A nearby resistance band is obvious at ~41 (the prior high area), and once reclaimed, mechanical buying from trend followers plus corporate repurchases can extend the move. We set an entry zone at 39.40–40.20 to capture slight dips and early breakout attempts. The stop at 38.20 sits below recent support and provides room for typical volatility while respecting capital.
Our exit targets of 43.00–44.00 imply roughly +7% to +11% from the midpoint of the entry range, achievable in 10–14 days when a large-cap industrial with a live buyback pokes through highs. While 20% in two weeks is ambitious for a company of this size, double-digit is reasonable given the catalyst’s durability and reinforcement from the company’s recent earnings engagement (transcript in circulation). Dividends (not the focus here) and low valuation stats in the supplied fundamentals help underpin downside. Importantly, buybacks often operate as a floor on red days, aiding risk control.
Risks: macro sensitivity to energy and steel cycles can dull momentum; an abrupt commodity downdraft could stall the breakout. Also, an overbought RSI introduces the possibility of shakeouts; that’s why our entry includes a pullback allowance to ~39.40 and a firm stop at 38.20. Still, with EMA stacks rising and the corporate bid likely present, failed breakdowns should be shallow. If the tape cooperates, a measured move above 41 can carry to 43–44 over two weeks as supply thins. In sum, this is a straightforward corporate-action trade: clear, funded buyback, strong trend, defined resistance, and disciplined exits that target at least a 10% gain at the top end of our range, with solid probability of a base hit even if the market stays choppy.
Updates
11/04/2025 14:35 PM
Hold
near_52w_high_resistance_~41
gap_down_vs_prior_close
momentum_positive_MACD
RSI_high_but_cooling
buyback_catalyst_active
ACTIVE. Price at 39.60 sits inside the 39.40–40.20 entry zone and well above rising EMAs; MACD momentum remains positive and RSI ~66 is cooling from overbought. Buyback catalyst is intact with no adverse news. Overhead resistance near 40.8–41 may cap the first push; avoid chasing above the entry ceiling. Keep stop at 38.90 (per plan) and targets 43–44 unchanged. Monitor for a firm loss of 39.40 or momentum rollover; a decisive break of 38.90 exits.
Confidence 72%
11/04/2025 13:34 PM
Hold
gap_down_today_vs_prior_close
near_52w_high_resistance
RSI_high_but_cooling
tight_stop_distance_relative_to_volatility
TS remains within the planned entry zone with bullish MACD and a cooling but still constructive RSI. No stop or target triggers, and the 14-day window is early. The buyback catalyst remains supportive; watch the ~41 resistance/52-week high area for confirmation. Maintain the current plan and stop at 38.90 per the structured parameters. If price reclaims and holds above 41 on strong volume, consider tightening the stop on follow-through, but for now allow normal volatility.
Confidence 75%
11/04/2025 12:35 PM
Hold
near_52w_high_resistance
RSI_elevated_but_cooling
pullback_vs_prior_close
energy_steel_macro_sensitivity
Trade remains intact. Price (39.83) is within the 39.40–40.20 entry zone, above the 38.90 stop, and below the 43–44 target. Momentum setup is still constructive (RSI ~67, positive MACD histogram, rising EMAs) despite cooling from yesterday’s close. No new catalysts contrary to the buyback thesis. Maintain plan and let corporate bid support dips.
Confidence 78%
11/04/2025 11:35 AM
Hold
near_prior_high_resistance_~41
rsi_still_elevated
stop_within_2_5_percent_of_price
Catalyst and trend remain intact. Price is trading within the planned entry zone (39.40–40.20) with bullish MACD and elevated but cooling RSI, and no adverse news. Neither stop (38.90) nor targets (43–44) have been touched; horizon still early (day 2 of 14). Expect resistance/supply near the prior high ~40.8–41; buyback should help on dips. Maintain plan and monitor for a clean reclaim of 40.20–41 to boost confidence; guard against a flush toward 39 where intraday wicks could test patience.
Confidence 80%
11/04/2025 10:34 AM
Hold
overbought_rsi_near_trend
near_term_resistance_around_41
tight_buffer_to_stop
macro_commodity_sensitivity
buyback_execution_timing_uncertain
Setup remains intact. Price is trading within the defined entry band and well above the 38.90 stop. Momentum is still constructive (bullish MACD, RSI ~67) and no adverse news flow is noted. Overhead supply near ~41 remains the first test; a clean reclaim and hold above that level would likely accelerate toward 43–44. Maintain the existing stop at 38.90 and swing targets at 43–44. If a breakout over ~41 is sustained, consider tightening the stop on a subsequent update; for now, keep parameters unchanged.
Confidence 82%
11/04/2025 09:36 AM
Hold
RSI_overbought
price_buffer_to_stop_is_thin
pullback_from_prior_close
overhead_resistance_near_41
TS remains within the planned entry zone and well above the explicit stop (38.90). Momentum signals (RSI ~75, bullish MACD, rising EMAs) stay supportive, and the buyback catalyst is intact. Early-session weakness vs prior close is a normal pullback near resistance ~41. No stop/target/horizon triggers. Keep risk tight and let the corporate bid work; reassess stops on a clean breakout over 41. Note: structured plan’s stop (38.90) is used despite narrative mention of 38.20.
Confidence 84%
11/04/2025 08:33 AM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 38.9
overbought_RSI
near_52w_high_resistance
breakout_failure_risk
early_hours_liquidity
No stop/target/horizon triggers. Price is pushing toward 52-week highs with bullish MACD and RSI >70; buyback thesis intact. Overbought and near resistance (~41) raises pullback risk. If already filled in the 39.4–40.2 zone, protect by tightening the stop; if not filled, stay patient for pullbacks into the entry zone rather than chasing strength. Targets unchanged at 43–44 within the 2-week window.
Confidence 88%
11/04/2025 07:33 AM
Hold
RSI_Overbought
Near_52wk_High_Resistance
EarlyHours_Gap_Volatility
False_Breakout_Risk
Commodity_Sensitivity
No rule triggers. Price (~40.73) is above the entry zone and below targets (43–44) with stop intact at 38.30. Momentum remains strong (bullish MACD, RSI ~74.6) and the buyback catalyst supports dips, but we are pressing into the prior high/41 area where a fade is possible in early hours. Maintain the plan; monitor for a clean breakout and hold above ~41 to consider later trailing adjustments. For now, keep levels unchanged and let the catalyst work within the 2-week window.
Confidence 89%
11/04/2025 06:33 AM
Hold
RSI_overbought
Near_52W_High_Resistance
Early_Hours_Gap_Fade
Short_Volume_Ratio_Elevated
No stop/target/horizon triggers. Price 40.73 is above the 39.40–40.20 entry and below the 43.00–44.00 targets; stop at 38.30 remains intact. Momentum is strong (bullish MACD, RSI ~74.6), and price is approaching prior 52W high/resistance ~40.9–41. Risk of early-hours gap fade and overbought shakeout exists, but the fresh buyback thesis remains supportive. Maintain plan and avoid chasing adds; prefer pullbacks toward the entry zone or a confirmed breakout and retest before adding. Keep targets 43–44 within the 14-day window; consider trailing the stop higher only after a clean hold above 41 forms a higher low.
Confidence 89%
11/03/2025 20:32 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 38.3
overbought_RSI
near_52w_resistance
breakout_failure_risk
commodity_macro_sensitivity
Price closed at ~40.73, above the 39.4–40.2 entry band and just below prior highs. Momentum remains strong (bullish MACD, rising EMAs) and the fresh buyback catalyst supports dips. RSI is overbought near resistance, so tighten risk while keeping the 43–44 target range and 14-day window. Watching for a clean breakout; protect against an overnight gap or failed push through highs.
Confidence 88%
11/03/2025 19:32 PM
Hold
overbought_RSI
near_52w_high_resistance
after_hours_liquidity/gap_risk
commodity_macro_sensitivity
AH price ~40.73 is above the 39.40–40.20 entry zone and well above the 38.10 stop. No target (43–44) reached and horizon (14 days from 2025-11-03) remains intact. Momentum is strong (bullish MACD, RSI ~75) and the fresh buyback supports dips, but price is approaching the ~41 resistance/52-week high area where a pullback is possible. Maintain plan: hold the position, keep the stop at 38.10 per the recorded levels, and keep targets unchanged. If we get a confirmed breakout and strong close above 41 on volume during regular hours, consider tightening the stop on a subsequent update; for now allow day-one volatility to play out.
Confidence 90%
11/03/2025 18:33 PM
Hold
overbought_RSI
near_52w_high_resistance
after_hours_liquidity
macro_energy_steel_sensitivity
No stop/target/horizon triggers. After-hours last 40.73 sits above the 39.40–40.20 entry zone and below 43–44 targets. Momentum remains strong (RSI ~74.6, bullish MACD) and price is just under the prior high (~41), so breakout watch is on. Risk: overbought conditions near resistance can cause shakeouts; avoid chasing illiquid AH moves. Note discrepancy: thesis text cites a 38.20 stop while the structured plan lists 39.90; keeping 39.90 as the operative stop unless you confirm widening to 38.20.
Confidence 90%
11/03/2025 17:32 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 39.9
RSI_overbought_>70
Near_52w_resistance_~41
AfterHours_illiquidity
Plan_stop_inconsistency
ACTIVE. Price is trading above the entry band (39.40–40.20) with bullish momentum (MACD positive, RSI ~75) and a live buyback catalyst. No stop or target breach and horizon is intact. Given proximity to prior highs (~40.9–41) and overbought RSI, tighten risk to protect gains while letting a potential breakout develop. Using the structured plan’s levels as the baseline, we are tightening the stop to 39.90 (just below the 40 handle/prior close support). Targets unchanged at 43–44; reassess to raise only on a decisive breakout and hold above 41 on volume. Note: there was an inconsistency between the narrative stop (38.20) and the structured stop (39.60); we are standardizing to the structured plan and tightening from there. After-hours prints can be illiquid; act on regular-hours confirmation.
Confidence 91%
11/03/2025 16:33 PM
Hold
RSI_overbought_>70
near_52w_high_resistance
afterhours_liquidity_gap_risk
Price is advancing on Day 1 and sits just below the 52-week high (~40.9). Momentum remains strong (bullish MACD, RSI ~75) and no adverse news is present. Targets (43–44) are not reached and stop (39.6) was not breached based on provided data. Horizon (14 days) is intact. Maintain the plan; monitor for a breakout through 41—if confirmed on strong tape, consider trailing the stop higher intraday to lock in risk, but for now keep levels per plan to avoid whipsaw under resistance.
Confidence 90%
11/03/2025 15:33 PM
Hold
Overbought_RSI
Near_prior_high_resistance
Possible_breakout_failure_intraday
Tight_stop_vs_volatility
No stop/target/horizon triggers hit. Price has advanced above the entry zone and is approaching prior highs (~40.9–41.0) with strong bullish momentum (RSI mid-70s, positive MACD). The buyback catalyst plus trend support the long, but overbought conditions and nearby resistance argue for patience on adds and vigilance for a fade. Hold core; avoid chasing above the entry zone. If we get a clean breakout and hold above ~41, consider tightening the stop to reduce drawdown risk; until then, keep current levels and let the catalyst work.
Confidence 92%
11/03/2025 14:33 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 39.6
RSI_overbought_>70
near_52w_high_resistance
breakout_failure_risk
outside_entry_range
TS is trading 40.72, above the 39.40–40.20 entry zone and below targets (43–44). No stop breach (explicit stop field was 39.20; thesis text mentioning 38.20 is disregarded). Momentum remains strong (RSI ~74.5, bullish MACD) and price is pressing the 52-week high area (~40.9), but overbought conditions and proximity to resistance increase failed-breakout risk. Keep the setup active and tighten risk: raise the stop to 39.60 (below prior close and just under the breakout/pivot area) to protect gains if the breakout fails. Targets and horizon unchanged; avoid chasing adds above plan—prefer pullbacks toward 39.8–40.2 if not fully filled.
Confidence 91%
11/03/2025 13:33 PM
Hold
overbought_RSI
near_52w_high_resistance
possible_intraday_reversal
macro_commodity_sensitivity
TS is trading 40.75, above the 39.40–40.20 entry zone and pressing the prior 52-week high area (~40.9). Momentum remains strong (bullish MACD, RSI ~75) and the buyback-driven thesis is intact. No stop or target has been triggered and the 14-day horizon just began. Expect potential shakeouts near resistance; avoid chasing strength and let dips do the work. Managing risk off the formal stop_loss of 39.20 from the plan parameters.
Confidence 90%
11/03/2025 12:33 PM
Hold
RSI_overbought
Near_prior_high_resistance
Above_entry_range_chasing_risk
Breakout_volatility_possible
TS is trading 40.72, above the 39.40–40.20 entry zone but below the 43.00 first target. No stop-loss (39.20) or target has triggered, and the 14-day horizon just started today. Momentum remains strong (bullish MACD, RSI >70) and the tape is pressing prior-high resistance near 41, consistent with a buyback-supported grind. If filled within the entry zone, continue to hold toward 43–44 with the existing stop at 39.20. If not filled, avoid chasing strength; wait for pullbacks into the entry zone or a clean consolidation; no change to risk levels today. Maintain discipline given overbought readings and nearby resistance that could cause intraday shakeouts.
Confidence 89%
11/03/2025 11:33 AM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 39.2
RSI_overbought
near_52w_high_resistance
gap_up_risk
Price (40.72) is above the 39.40–40.20 entry zone and well below the 43–44 targets; stop 38.20 not touched; horizon just started. Momentum remains strong (bullish MACD, RSI ~74.7) and shares are approaching the prior 52‑wk high area (~40.9). Keep ACTIVE. Tighten risk in case the gap-up fades by raising the stop just below the entry floor. Targets unchanged. If not filled yet, avoid chasing strength; prefer pullbacks toward ~40.0–40.3 for risk-balanced entry.
Confidence 88%
11/03/2025 10:32 AM
Hold
RSI_overbought
near_52w_resistance
potential_breakout_fail_risk
Plan remains on track. Price at 40.45 is above the entry band and below the prior high (~40.9–41). Momentum is constructive (bullish MACD, rising EMAs) though RSI ~73.5 is overbought, so expect possible shakeouts near resistance. No stop/target/horizon triggers hit. Maintain the original stop (38.20) and 43–44 targets for now; consider tightening stops only after a confirmed breakout and hold above 41 on volume.
Confidence 87%
11/03/2025 09:32 AM
Hold
RSI overbought (>70) near resistance
Proximity to 52-week high (~41) could trigger fade attempts
Energy/steel macro sensitivity may add volatility
Price at 40.10 sits squarely in the 39.40–40.20 entry zone; trade is live with no stop/target/horizon triggers. Momentum remains constructive (bullish MACD, RSI ~72) and the buyback catalyst supports dips, but price is just below the ~40.9–41 prior-high resistance where churn is likely. Maintain the initial stop at 38.20 and targets at 43–44 for now; consider tightening the stop only after a decisive breakout/close above ~41. Horizon unchanged (14 days).
Confidence 86%
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