NVDA
Lost - 7 Days RemainingNVIDIA Corporation
Recommendation Date: 10/31/2025 Update: 11/04/2025 14:42 PM (49 updates)
Trade Plan
Entry
$198.00-$202.00
Exit
$223.00-$223.00
Stop Loss
$199.00
Horizon
12d
Original Confidence
61%
Updated Confidence
61%
Score
0.960
Evidence
Price at Pick:$202.41
Prior Close:$202.89
MACD Value:5.284417
MACD Signal:3.179353
MACD Histogram:2.105064
Trend:Bullish Momentum
Support Est:$200.00
Resistance Est:$212.00
Current Quote
Price
—
Change
—
Open
—
Volume
—
Rationale
JENSEN JUST FLIPPED THE AI NITRO SWITCH, BOIS. Goldman blesses NVDA with a shiny $240 PT, Korea’s rolling out the red carpet to build AI factories with Team Green, and Papa Huang’s hinting Blackwell chips might be back in the China cart soon. Translation: demand go brrr. We’re parking the tendies wagon around 198–202, letting the suits sell us their weak hands, and then riding this GPU freight train through the 212 speed trap straight to the 223–229 victory lap. MACD is thicc and green, RSI’s spicy but not cooked, and every hyperscaler is hoarding silicon like it’s Black Friday at Micro Center.
Risk? Sure, if regulators slam the door on China again or the macro gods decide to rug-pull growth stocks. That’s why we hard-stop at 190—no bagholding allowed. But with sectors humming and AI headlines feeding the dopamine loop, this has “higher high” written all over it. We’re not chasing; we’re sniping the pullback and then moonwalking through resistance. 10%+ in under two weeks? That’s not hopium—that’s Jensenium. Load the cart, kiss your keyboard, and let the tensor cores print.
Catalyst and why it’s tradable now: Nvidia sits at the epicenter of the AI infrastructure build-out, and today’s flow of positive, multi-source news strengthens a near-term continuation setup. First, Goldman Sachs published a bullish analysis and lifted its price target to $240, providing incremental buy-side cover for fresh money to come in. Second, Nvidia announced a wide-reaching collaboration with the Government of South Korea and industrial leaders to build AI infrastructure and ecosystem capacity, a real, scalable demand vector that should translate into additional datacenter pipeline visibility. Third, CEO Jensen Huang publicly expressed optimism about resuming Blackwell chip sales to China—headline risk that has weighed at times—signaling potential upside to international demand if regulatory paths allow. These are concrete, tradable headlines with cross-border breadth rather than a single transient PR.
Technicals and timing: Price is 202.41, fractionally below the 52-week high (212.19) and well above the rising EMA9 (195.7) and EMA21 (189.8). Momentum is firm: MACD line (5.28) > signal (3.18) with a positive histogram (2.11) and the system reports bullish momentum. RSI at ~66 is elevated but not extreme, suggesting room for a measured continuation, especially given strong sector tape. I’m anchoring support near 200 (today’s low 202.07 and round-number magnet) and resistance around 210–212 (recent high). A small pullback toward 200 is a constructive spot to add.
Position construction and targets: I recommend an entry window at 198–202 to let the tape breathe around psychological support and the rising short-term averages. Targets are 223–229 over a 12-day horizon, which implies a 10–13% move from the top of the entry range and would mark a shallow price discovery above prior highs. Given recent volume velocity (179.8M shares) and strong sector tailwinds, a modest breakout extension is plausible if macro cooperates and the AI narrative remains dominant into next week.
Risk management: The stop is set at 190, below the EMA9/21 cluster and a logical invalidation if momentum fades and the breakout thesis fails. Primary risks include (1) renewed U.S.-China export restrictions headlines that chill the “China resumption” optimism; (2) competitor earnings or supply commentary that reshapes capex expectations; and (3) a broader growth selloff that compresses high-multiple AI leaders. If price closes below ~195 with expanding volume and MACD rolls over, I’d reduce and wait for a reset at the EMA50 (~183.0) rather than force the trade.
Why 10% is realistic: We have three high-quality, recent catalysts in under 12 hours: a major sell-side PT raise, a government-level partnership, and CEO commentary on a key market. With momentum already bullish and social interest inching up, pushing toward the low-220s is a reasonable near-term extension above 212 resistance. The setup benefits from broad AI enthusiasm (Amazon, Apple prints boosted risk appetite today) and sustained datacenter demand narrative. The plan aims to capture a disciplined leg higher with defined downside if momentum stalls.
Updates
11/04/2025 14:42 PM
Hold
near_stop
intraday_weakness_vs_prior_close
social_buzz_softening
Price is within the 198-202 entry band and holding just above the 199 stop and EMA9 (~198.4). Momentum remains constructive (bullish MACD, RSI ~61), and sector news flow is supportive, but the tape is soft vs prior close and social momentum has cooled. Maintain plan discipline: keep stop at 199; if breached, mark STOP_HIT. No adds here; let price prove strength back above 202 before considering increases.
Confidence 61%
11/04/2025 13:38 PM
Hold
proximity_to_stop
testing_200_support
stop_inconsistency_199_vs_190
NVDA pulled back to the 200 area (last ~199.8) but remains above the EMA9/21 and with bullish MACD and RSI ~61. Sector/news tone stays supportive. Targets are not reached and horizon is intact. Stop is very close; note the inconsistency between the header stop (199) and the narrative stop (190). For rule-based management here, we adhere to the 199 stop: if breached, close per plan. Otherwise, hold for a potential bounce off 200 support toward the 206–212 zone and on to 223–229.
Confidence 66%
11/04/2025 12:39 PM
Hold
Thin_cushion_to_stop
Stop_within_entry_range
Intraday_weakness_vs_prior_close
Potential_whipsaw_near_EMA9
No rule-based trigger. Last 201.11 is above the 199 stop and below the 223 first target; horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) remains open. Trend still constructive: price > EMA9 (≈198.5) and EMA21 (≈192.2), MACD positive with bullish momentum, RSI ~61. Pullback from prior close (206.88) leaves price inside the 198–202 entry band, but the 199 stop sits tight and could be whipsawed around the 200 level. Keeping plan intact; monitor 200/EMA9 area—if momentum deteriorates (close < EMA9 with weakening MACD), reassess. Note: using the explicit stop_loss=199 from the trade record (narrative mentioned 190, but plan fields govern).
Confidence 73%
11/04/2025 11:40 AM
Hold
price_below_prior_close
near_stop_distance_lt_1.5%
needs_breakout_above_212
intraday_volatility_elevated
social_buzz_softening
No stop/target/horizon triggers. Last ~202.08 is above EMA9 and well above EMA21 with bullish MACD and RSI ~62. Pullback versus prior close but sector/news tone remains supportive. Maintain the structured stop at 199 (noting narrative mentioned 190) to avoid premature exit while the momentum structure remains intact. Watching 210–212 resistance; a clean push/hold above increases probability of reaching 223–229. If 199/EMA9 breaks with momentum, risk control takes priority.
Confidence 80%
11/04/2025 10:39 AM
Hold
tight_stop_proximity
round_number_support_200
pullback_vs_prior_close
social_mentions_down_but_high_rank
momentum_positive_but_cooling
Price 201.73 sits inside the 198–202 entry window and above the explicit stop at 199. Momentum remains constructive (MACD > signal, RSI ~63.5) and AI/semis newsflow skews positive. No target (223–229) or horizon rule triggered. Risk: proximity to round-number 200 could produce whipsaws; a decisive break of 199 would STOP_HIT per plan. Maintain discipline at 199 and monitor tape around the EMA9 (~198.9).
Confidence 82%
11/04/2025 09:42 AM
Hold
RSI_near_overbought
price_below_prior_close
stop_close_to_price
social_mentions_softening
No rule triggers. Last ~202.03 is at the top of the 198–202 entry band, still above EMA9 (~198) with bullish MACD and RSI ~69.5. Despite a pullback vs prior close, the momentum thesis and AI news flow remain supportive. Target 223–229 intact; horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) not yet reached. There is a discrepancy in the original write-up regarding stop (190 in text vs 199 in the structured plan); we are honoring the structured 199 stop. Hold and let the setup work; watch 206 then 210–212 as near resistance. A decisive break of 199 would invalidate this leg per plan.
Confidence 86%
11/04/2025 08:37 AM
Hold
RSI_near_overbought
Overhead_resistance_210-212
Early_hours_gap_risk
Social_mentions_trend_down
Plan_stop_conflict_199_vs_190
Setup remains intact. Price (207.02) is above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and strong sector/news tone. RSI ~69.5 is elevated but not extreme. No target hit (>=223) or stop breach (199), and horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) is still open. Respecting 210–212 as near resistance; a rejection there could retrace toward 200. Note: narrative mentioned a 190 stop, but the plan-of-record stop on the ticket is 199; using 199 unless formally revised.
Confidence 88%
11/04/2025 07:38 AM
Hold
rsi_near_overbought
overhead_resistance_210_212
opening_volatility_gap_risk
social_interest_softening
Price 207.02 in early hours is above the 198–202 entry zone, momentum remains bullish (MACD > signal, positive histogram). RSI ~69.5 is elevated and immediate resistance sits near 210–212; targets 223–229 not yet reached, stop 199 not breached, and horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) not expired. News flow is broadly supportive for AI/semis. Expect potential retests toward 202–204 on opening volatility; maintain risk discipline around the structured stop at 199 and monitor behavior around 210–212 for confirmation.
Confidence 86%
11/04/2025 06:37 AM
Hold
near_term_resistance_210_212
rsi_near_overbought
early_hours_gap_risk
social_mentions_softening
ACTIVE. Last ~207 sits well above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and supportive AI news flow. Targets (223–229) not reached, stop not breached, and horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) intact. Key risk is immediate overhead resistance near 210–212 with RSI ~69 (near overbought) and EarlyHours gap risk that could invite a fade toward 203–205 or a retest of the 200 area. Original text mentions a 190 stop, but the structured plan lists 199; we are honoring the plan field (199) just below the 200 support pivot. Consider opportunistic trims into 210–212 strength while keeping core for 223–229.
Confidence 84%
11/03/2025 20:36 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 199
overbought_rsi_near_70
overhead_resistance_210_212
social_sentiment_cooling
headline_sensitivity_AI_macro
gap_fill_risk_to_202
Position remains active: last 207.02 is above the 198–202 entry zone, below 223–229 targets, and well above the 198.5 stop. Momentum remains bullish (MACD positive, RSI ~69.5), but price is approaching the 210–212 resistance band and RSI is near overbought. News flow skew is supportive; social interest has cooled slightly. No stop/target/horizon triggers. Maintain the plan, but marginally tighten risk given the run and nearby resistance.
Confidence 84%
11/03/2025 19:35 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 198.5
rsi_near_overbought
overhead_resistance_210_212
after_hours_liquidity
social_mentions_cooling
Position remains active. No target or stop was hit and the trade is within its 12-day window. Price ~207 is above the 9/21 EMAs with bullish MACD and RSI ~69.5, supported by positive AI-sector news flow. Overhead supply likely near 210–212; a decisive break there would improve odds of reaching 223–229. To protect gains while allowing normal volatility around the 200 handle, tighten the stop modestly to just below 200 and near the EMA9. Targets unchanged. Monitor for momentum stall under 210 or any negative regulatory headlines; after-hours liquidity is thin.
Confidence 85%
11/03/2025 18:37 PM
Hold
RSI_near_overbought
Approaching_210-212_resistance
After_hours_liquidity_gap_risk
Social_mentions_trend_down
Price at 207.02 (AH) remains well above the 198–202 entry band and above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and elevated RSI (~69). No stop or target triggers: stop 199 not breached on current snapshot; targets 223–229 not yet hit; horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) still open. Expect chop near 210–212 resistance; maintain discipline and avoid chasing if not filled—prefer adds on controlled pullbacks toward ~200 with momentum intact. Keep targets unchanged given sector tailwinds, but be ready to take partials into 210–212 if tape stalls.
Confidence 83%
11/03/2025 17:37 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 199
rsi_near_overbought
extended_above_short_emAs
afterhours_liquidity_gap
social_interest_cooling
competitor_headline_risk
Momentum remains intact: last 207.02 > EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and RSI ~69. No stop/target/horizon triggers. Keep the upside thesis toward 223–229; however, given the quick run and 200 as near-term support, tighten risk to protect gains while allowing normal pullbacks.
Confidence 84%
11/03/2025 16:38 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 197
RSI_near_overbought
overhead_resistance_210_212
after_hours_liquidity_thin
headline_risk_US_China
sector_rotation_risk
momentum_cooldown_possible
Price at 207.02 (AH) remains well above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD; no stop or target hit and horizon intact. RSI ~69.5 is elevated and NVDA is approaching 210–212 resistance, so expect chop. There is a stop discrepancy in the original plan (JSON shows 200, text specifies 190). Interpreting the textual 190 as the intended hard stop, I’m tightening risk to 197, just below the EMA9, which allows a 200 retest but exits on a momentum breakdown. Targets 223–229 and the 12-day horizon remain appropriate given sector strength and news tone.
Confidence 83%
11/03/2025 15:37 PM
Hold
rsi_near_overbought
approaching_resistance_210_212
social_mentions_downtrend
momentum_follow_through
not_at_target
Remain ACTIVE. Price ~206.4 is above EMA9 (~198) and EMA21 (~191) with bullish MACD; RSI ~70 is near overbought but not extreme. Stop (200) not breached; targets (223–229) not reached; 3/12 days into horizon. Near-term resistance 210–212 is the first test. If already long from 198–202, consider harvesting a small trim into 210–212 and only tighten stops on a clean breakout; if not filled, avoid chasing strength and wait for pullbacks toward 200–202/EMA9. No numeric changes to levels for now.
Confidence 84%
11/03/2025 14:38 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 200
overbought_rsi
momentum_pullback_risk
headline_geopolitical_risk
sector_rotation_risk
gap_risk
social_interest_cooling
NVDA is trading ~207.7, comfortably above the 198–202 entry zone and well above EMA9 (~198). Stop (199) not breached, targets (223–229) not reached, and horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) remains intact. Momentum stays bullish (MACD rising), but RSI ~70 signals near-term pullback risk toward 202–205 or even the EMA9. News/sector tone is supportive, though social interest has cooled a bit. Keep the position ACTIVE and tighten risk to protect gains while allowing normal volatility. Consider opportunistic trims near 210–212 if momentum stalls; re-engage on a strong breakout toward the 223+ target.
Confidence 85%
11/03/2025 13:36 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 199
RSI_overbought_70_plus
approaching_prior_high_resistance_212
social_mentions_trending_down
Active. Price 210.44 remains below the 223–229 target and above stop; horizon not expired (day 3 of 12). Momentum is strong (RSI ~72, bullish MACD) and price is approaching 210–212 resistance. Given the extension and overbought RSI, tighten risk to protect gains while keeping targets unchanged.
Confidence 87%
11/03/2025 12:38 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 198
RSI_overbought_70_plus
Approaching_resistance_212
Gap_fade_risk
Macro_reversal_risk
Social_buzz_cooling
Price is advancing toward the 210–212 resistance band with strong bullish momentum (MACD positive, RSI >70). Targets (223–229) not yet reached and stop not breached; horizon intact. Given the stretch above short-term EMAs and proximity to resistance, tighten risk but continue to ride momentum. Avoid adding near resistance; look for a clean breakout/close above ~212 with constructive volume to consider adds. Noting a discrepancy in the narrative stop (190) vs plan stop (197); managing to the plan and tightening as below.
Confidence 85%
11/03/2025 11:37 AM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 197
RSI_overbought_near_70
extended_above_EMAs
supply_near_210_212
social_interest_cooling_vs_24h
macro_headline_sensitivity
Price is 208.24, above the 198–202 entry and well above EMA9/21 with strong bullish MACD. RSI ~70 is elevated, so expect some churn near 210–212 resistance before any attempt at 223–229 targets. No stop/target/horizon triggers. Macro/sector tone is supportive; one valuation-negative article is noted but not thesis-breaking. Keep the trade on but protect gains by tightening the stop under the rising EMA9/round-number support. If 212 breaks on strong tape, consider trailing the stop up on subsequent checks; otherwise, respect the tightened risk and avoid adding above plan until a controlled pullback.
Confidence 84%
11/03/2025 10:37 AM
Hold
rsi_overbought
extended_above_ema9
social_interest_cooling
valuation_headline_negative
Trade remains active: price 207.65 is well above entry window and far from stop (195.2) and targets (223–229). Momentum is strong (bullish MACD), but RSI ~70 and price ~4–5% above the 9-EMA suggest near-term pullback risk toward 202–204. No rules triggered (not at target, not at stop, not at horizon). Keep stops and targets unchanged; avoid chasing adds—prefer dips toward prior support/9–EMA zone. A high-volume breakout and hold above ~212 would strengthen the setup; conversely, a heavy-volume close <~198 would warrant reassessing/tightening risk next update.
Confidence 82%
11/03/2025 09:36 AM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 195.2
overhead_resistance_210_212
social_interest_cooling
valuation_headline_negative
gap_fill_risk_to_202
macro_reversal_risk
Momentum and sector tone remain constructive. Price is above entry window and EMAs with bullish MACD; near-term resistance sits 210–212. No target/stop/horizon triggers. We tighten the stop modestly to sit just below the EMA9 area while allowing normal volatility. If price rejects hard at 210–212 with momentum fade, reassess; otherwise hold for 223–229 over the stated horizon.
Confidence 80%
11/03/2025 08:36 AM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 194.5
RSI_elevated
social_interest_softening
valuation_headline_negative
minor_gap_down_vs_prior_close
No stop or target triggered. Price (~202.41) is holding above EMA9 (~195.7) with bullish MACD and RSI ~66, consistent with the continuation thesis. News flow skews constructive despite one valuation-negative article; social mentions have softened. Maintain the trade, but tighten risk given we’re near the top of the entry band and into a potential 200 support retest. Keep targets 223–229 over the original horizon.
Confidence 76%
11/03/2025 07:35 AM
Hold
macro_growth_selloff
regulatory_china_export_headlines
valuation_headline_pressure
momentum_breakdown_below_195
social_attention_softening
Setup remains constructive: price holds above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and RSI ~66, and recent news flow is generally supportive despite a valuation caution piece. No stop/target/horizon rules hit (last 202.41 vs stop 193.5; targets 223–229 not reached; horizon runs to mid-Nov). Maintain focus on the 200–202 pivot as near-term support; a sustained break under 198 would raise risk of a test toward 195/193.5. Continue to respect the hard stop at 193.5 and the 223–229 target band.
Confidence 75%
11/03/2025 06:35 AM
Hold
Overhead resistance near 210–212
RSI elevated (~66) increases pullback risk
Social media mentions trending down
Headline risk around China/export policy
Early-hours gap risk
Stop sits just below short-term averages; possible whipsaw
Active: Price has not hit targets (≥223) or stop (≤193.5), and horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) remains open. Tape still supportive: MACD > signal with positive histogram, RSI ~66, and price above rising EMA9/21. News skew is mixed-to-positive with one negative valuation take; social mentions trend slipped, so modest caution. Key near-term level remains 210–212 resistance; support around 200 and EMA9 (~196). Maintain plan and monitor for any momentum rollover or macro risk.
Confidence 77%
11/02/2025 20:34 PM
Hold
proximity_to_resistance_210_212
social_mentions_cooling
RSI_elevated_not_extreme
AI_competition_headlines
macro_gap_risk
ACTIVE: Price at 202.41 sits just above the 198–202 entry band with bullish MACD and RSI ~66. No stop (193.5) or target (223–229) triggers and horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) has not expired. Maintain plan: respect 193.5 stop, watch 210–212 resistance. If daily close <195 with momentum deterioration, de-risk per original plan. Prefer adds only on constructive dips toward ~199–200; otherwise hold for breakout toward targets.
Confidence 78%
11/02/2025 19:35 PM
Tighten Stop
Stop Loss: 193.5
RSI elevated near mid-60s (overbought risk on short timeframe)
Overhead resistance at 210–212 could stall progress
Gap/headline risk into next session
Competitive narrative headlines (e.g., Qualcomm/AMD) may rotate flows
Setup intact. Last 202.41 is just above the 198–202 entry band, momentum remains bullish (MACD > signal, RSI ~66) and price holds above EMA9/21. No stop/target/horizon trigger. Keep looking for a break through 210–212 toward 223–229 within the 12-day window. Tightening the stop to reduce downside if momentum fades. Adds on a controlled pullback toward 199–201 remain acceptable per plan, but not chasing strength.
Confidence 79%
11/02/2025 18:34 PM
Hold
overhead_resistance_210_212
rsi_elevated_not_extreme
peer_event_risk_AMD_headlines
macro_growth_factor_sensitivity
social_interest_cooling_slight
No stop/target/horizon triggers. Price ~202.41 remains near the entry band and above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and RSI ~66, so the momentum thesis is intact. Overhead supply near 210–212 remains the next test; watch a daily close <195 as an early warning per plan. Peer event risk early week (AMD-related headlines) could add volatility, but current data doesn’t invalidate the setup. Maintain plan and look for constructive pullbacks toward 198–200 to add if not fully sized.
Confidence 80%
11/02/2025 17:34 PM
Hold
RSI_elevated
overhead_resistance_210_212
social_buzz_cooling
No rule-based exit triggered. Price (~202.41) is near the 198–202 entry zone, above the 190 stop, and below the 223–229 target. Horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) remains open. Technicals are supportive (RSI ~66, MACD positive, price above EMA9/21). Sector/news tone remains constructive. Maintain position and monitor 210–212 resistance; hold 190 hard stop per plan.
Confidence 82%
11/02/2025 16:34 PM
Hold
near_term_resistance_210_212
rsi_elevated
macro_growth_sensitivity
us_china_headline_risk
competitor_catalyst_risk_amd
gap_risk_next_open
Price at 202.41 is just above the 198–202 entry band, far from the 223–229 targets and well above the 190 stop; horizon (12 days) not reached. Momentum remains constructive (RSI ~66, bullish MACD; EMA9/21 rising), and sector/news tone is supportive with no adverse thesis-breaking items. Keep plan intact: prioritize adds on dips toward 199–201 rather than chase; respect 190 hard stop (just below EMA21). If we see a daily close <195 with expanding volume and momentum rollover, reduce risk per plan.
Confidence 83%
11/02/2025 15:34 PM
Hold
near_resistance_210_212
elevated_rsi
support_200_may_be_tested
macro_growth_sensitivity
china_regulatory_headline_risk
competitor_guidance_risk
gap_risk_on_open
No rule-based triggers. Last ~202.41 keeps the trade near the 198–202 entry zone; stop 190 not breached; 223–229 target not reached; horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) still open. Technicals remain constructive (RSI ~66, bullish MACD), and news/sector tone is supportive. Key levels: 200 remains the near-term pivot; 210–212 is resistance. Holding as planned with hard stop 190. If there’s a daily close <195 with momentum deterioration, consider de-risking per the original playbook rather than waiting for the hard stop. If price breaks and holds above 212 on strength, we can reassess and potentially raise targets, but no changes now. If not yet filled, avoid chasing materially above 202; look for pullbacks toward 199–201 to complete entries.
Confidence 85%
11/02/2025 09:42 AM
Hold
near_term_resistance_210_212
rsi_elevated_but_not_extreme
gap_risk_next_open
peer_earnings_headline_risk
macro_growth_sensitivity
china_export_headline_risk
No stop/target/horizon triggers. Last price ~202.41 is just above the 198–202 entry band, well above the 190 stop, and below the 223–229 target zone. Momentum remains constructive (RSI ~66, bullish MACD) and news/social flow skews positive, so the thesis stands. Maintain the plan into the next session; monitor 200 as near-term support and 210–212 as the breakout gate. No adjustments until a decisive break above 210–212 or a close back below ~195 with momentum deterioration.
Confidence 86%
11/02/2025 08:38 AM
Hold
gap_risk_post_weekend
competitor_news_risk
overbought_risk_rsi_mid_60s
overhead_resistance_210_212
No rule triggers. Price (~202.41) sits just above the entry band (198–202), well above the 9/21 EMAs, MACD remains bullish, RSI ~66. Stop (190) intact; no target hits (223–229) and horizon remains open (through Nov 12). Weekend gap risk and potential competitor headlines early week warrant slightly lower confidence versus initial, but the setup remains constructive. Plan: hold core; consider tactical trims into the 210–212 prior high if reached quickly; buy-the-dip candidates remain ~199–201 rather than chasing strength. Keep current stop/targets unless momentum meaningfully changes.
Confidence 86%
11/02/2025 06:37 AM
Hold
Entry Max: 203
entry_not_filled
near_resistance_210_212
gap_risk_on_open
elevated_rsi
macro_growth_sensitivity
policy_headline_risk_china_exports
No stop/target/horizon triggers. Price (~202.41) sits just above the top of the entry band; momentum remains bullish (MACD > signal, RSI ~66) and news/social skew positive, consistent with the thesis. To avoid missing by pennies while preserving R:R to 223–229 with a 190 stop, slightly lift the entry ceiling. Keep targets and stop unchanged; watch 210–212 resistance and Monday open gap risk.
Confidence 88%
11/01/2025 20:37 PM
Hold
overhead_resistance_210_212
near_overbought_rsi
gap_risk_next_open
headline_risk_US_China
broad_growth_factor_volatility
No rules triggered. Price ~202.41 sits just above the 198–202 entry band; stop (190) intact; targets (223–229) not reached; horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) still open. Technicals remain constructive (bullish MACD, RSI mid-60s, price above EMA9/21) and sentiment/news flow is positive with rising social momentum. Plan remains valid. Preferred adds on pullbacks toward 199–202 rather than chasing strength; 200 is a key intraday pivot. Watch 210–212 resistance: a decisive close above increases odds of a push toward 223+. Conversely, a heavy-volume close <195 would be a warning that momentum is fading and risk should be reduced per original plan.
Confidence 89%
11/01/2025 19:38 PM
Hold
weekend_gap_risk
overhead_resistance_210_212
elevated_rsi
Setup remains intact: price holds above EMA9 (~195.7) with bullish MACD and RSI ~66, and news/social flow is positive. No stop/target/horizon triggers. Overhead resistance near 210–212 is the next test; a clean breakout would accelerate progress toward 223–229. Maintain plan into next week; if momentum fades (close <195 with weakening MACD/volume expansion), consider de-risking per original playbook rather than forcing adds. No changes to targets or horizon today.
Confidence 88%
11/01/2025 18:39 PM
Hold
macro_rate_repricing
headline_risk_china
RSI_elevated_mid60s
gap_risk_weekend
sector_rotation_risk
No stop, target, or horizon trigger. Price (~202.41) is just above the 198–202 entry band, momentum remains bullish (MACD > signal, positive histogram), and RSI ~66 is elevated but not extreme. Support near 200 held; EMAs (9/21) are rising. News/sentiment skew positive and social mentions are trending up. Maintain plan; monitor 200 as near-term support and watch for any daily close <195 with momentum rollover per original risk notes. Approximately 11 days remain to horizon.
Confidence 87%
11/01/2025 17:38 PM
Hold
Overhead resistance near 210–212
RSI elevated (mid-60s) may cap near-term upside
Weekend headline/gap risk into next session
Momentum fade risk if price closes <195 with volume
No rule triggers. Price (202.41) remains above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and RSI ~66; momentum still constructive. Stop 190 and targets 223–229 unchanged; horizon intact (12 days from 2025-10-31). Expect resistance and potential churn into 210–212; avoid chasing strength—adds on pullbacks toward 199–200 remain preferable. Watch for a daily close <195 with momentum rollover as an early warning to de-risk, otherwise continue to hold for breakout extension next week. Weekend headline gap risk into Monday open.
Confidence 86%
11/01/2025 16:37 PM
Hold
rsi_elevated
near_term_resistance_210_212
weekend_gap_risk
macro_growth_sensitivity
entry_slightly_above_planned_band_do_not_chase
Trade remains intact. Last 202.41 is above stop (190) and below targets (223–229); horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) not expired. Momentum is bullish (MACD > signal; positive histogram) with RSI ~66—elevated but not extreme. Close is slightly above the 198–202 entry band; if not filled, do not chase into strength—prefer a 200–202 retest. Support sits near EMA9 (~195.7) and the 200 round level; stop at 190 remains the structural invalidation below the EMA21 cluster. Key risks: weekend/gap headlines, a fade near 210–212 resistance, and broader growth tape volatility. If price powers through 212 on strong volume, we can reassess targets; otherwise stay patient for pullbacks.
Confidence 87%
11/01/2025 15:37 PM
Hold
overbought_risk_near_RSI_70
resistance_overhead_210_212
headline_risk_china_export_policy
macro_growth_and_rate_sensitivity
weekend_gap_risk
Active long from the 198–202 entry zone remains intact. Last 202.41; neither stop (190) nor target (223–229) nor horizon breached. Momentum and trend signals remain constructive (RSI ~66, MACD positive; EMAs rising) with supportive sector/news flow and improving social interest. Key near-term level is 210–212 resistance; a clean break/hold above increases the odds of reaching 223–229. Maintain current stop and targets; reassess if a daily close <195 with momentum deterioration.
Confidence 88%
11/01/2025 14:41 PM
Hold
weekend_gap_risk
near_term_resistance_210_212
elevated_RSI_66
macro_rate_uncertainty
Thesis intact. Price has not hit target (>=223) or stop (190) and the 12-day horizon (through ~Nov 12) remains open. Momentum stays constructive (MACD positive, RSI ~66) and news/social flow is supportive. Expect some chop into 210–212 resistance; prefer adds on pullbacks toward ~200 rather than chasing. Maintain stop at 190; a close <195 on rising volume would be a caution to reduce risk per plan.
Confidence 88%
11/01/2025 13:39 PM
Hold
near_resistance_210_212
regulatory_risk_china_exports
momentum_cooldown_risk_rsi_mid_60s
weekend_headline_gap_risk
No stop or target levels have been triggered. Last 202.41 sits just above the 198–202 entry zone, momentum remains bullish (RSI ~66, MACD positive), and news/social tone is supportive. Keep the plan intact into next session: watch 210–212 resistance; a strong rejection there would argue for patience. Maintain the hard stop at 190 until a higher low is established above ~200; targets remain 223–229 within the 12-day horizon.
Confidence 88%
11/01/2025 12:39 PM
Hold
near_prior_high_resistance_210_212
weekend_gap_risk
elevated_rsi_mid_60s
headline_sensitivity_china_exports
macro_rate_volatility
No stop/target/horizon triggers. Price ~202.41 sits just above the 198–202 entry band, momentum remains bullish (RSI ~66, MACD positive), and news flow/social mentions are supportive. Primary pivot remains ~200; resistance 210–212. Keep stop at 190 and targets 223–229. Watch for a close <195 with momentum rollover to reassess risk; otherwise maintain the plan into next week.
Confidence 87%
11/01/2025 11:37 AM
Hold
Near prior resistance 210–212
RSI elevated (~66)
Weekend headline/gap risk
China export policy headline risk
Macro rate/real-yield spike risk
AI sector sentiment reversal risk
No rule triggers. Last price ~202.41: above entry zone top but below first target (223) and well above stop (190). Momentum remains constructive (RSI ~66, MACD positive, price > EMA9/21). Sector/news flow still supportive and social interest is rising. Respect nearby resistance 210–212; prefer adds on pullbacks toward ~200 rather than chasing. Maintain stop at 190 and 12-day horizon; watch for a close <195 with momentum rollover to reassess risk.
Confidence 88%
11/01/2025 10:40 AM
Hold
Approaching 210–212 resistance
RSI elevated (~66) increases pullback risk
Weekend/macro headline risk; potential US–China export headlines
Gap risk on next open
No stop/target/horizon rules triggered. Price ~202.4 sits just above the 198–202 entry band, trend remains constructive (RSI ~66, bullish MACD, above EMA9/21) and recent news flow is supportive. Maintain plan; prefer fills on dips near 199–201 rather than chasing. Monitor 210–212 resistance; if rejected with a close <195 and momentum rolls, risk reduces per original plan.
Confidence 88%
11/01/2025 09:36 AM
Hold
no_fill_risk
overhead_resistance_210_212
gap_risk
hawkish_fed_headline_risk
momentum_cooldown_risk
china_regulatory_headline_risk
Setup remains intact. Momentum is still bullish (MACD > signal, positive histogram) and RSI ~66 is elevated but not extreme. Price did not hit targets (223–229) or stop (190), and horizon (12 days from 2025-10-31) is intact. Likely no fill yet as Friday’s low hovered just above the 198–202 entry band; keep patience for a pullback toward that zone rather than chase into nearby 210–212 resistance. Be mindful of weekend gap risk; if Monday gaps through 210, prefer a retest rather than expanding risk. If a daily close <195 occurs with momentum rolling over, risk of a deeper mean reversion rises—stick to the 190 hard stop.
Confidence 90%
11/01/2025 08:35 AM
Hold
resistance_210_212_overhead
headline_risk_US_China_exports
macro_rate_sensitivity
RSI_elevated
gap_risk_next_open
sector_rotation_risk
Setup intact. No stop/target/horizon triggers. Last price 202.41 is at the top of the 198–202 entry band, momentum remains bullish (RSI ~66, MACD positive) and price is above EMA9/21. News and social trends are supportive. Maintain the plan: targets 223–229, stop 190, 12-day horizon. Monitor 210–212 as near-term resistance; a daily close <195 with momentum deterioration would be a caution to reduce risk, but not adjusting levels yet.
Confidence 92%
11/01/2025 07:35 AM
Hold
elevated_RSI
near_prior_highs_210_212
macro_rate_path_uncertainty
US_China_regulatory_headline_risk
Thesis intact. Price 202.41 is above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and rising momentum; RSI ~66 is elevated but not overbought. No stop/target/horizon triggers (stop 190 intact; targets 223–229 not reached; horizon still open). Maintain plan and look to add on constructive pullbacks toward 200–201. Monitor any close <195 for momentum fade per plan; overhead resistance remains 210–212.
Confidence 92%
11/01/2025 06:33 AM
Hold
weekend_gap_risk
headline_sensitivity_US_China
resistance_210_212_nearby
momentum_cooldown_risk_if_RSI_pushes_overbought
No rule-based exit triggered. Price ~202.41 remains above EMA9/21 with bullish MACD and RSI ~66; news and social flow are supportive. Maintain the plan: if not yet filled, keep bids on dips within 198–202; if filled near 198–202, continue to hold toward 223–229 with the 190 stop. Watch 210–212 as first resistance; a strong push/close above that level would validate momentum continuation.
Confidence 93%
10/31/2025 20:34 PM
Hold
near_resistance_210_212
elevated_rsi
weekend_headline_risk
macro_rate_path_uncertainty
china_export_policy_headlines
sector_rotation_risk
No stop/target/horizon triggers. Close at 202.41 keeps price above EMA9/21, RSI ~66 and MACD positive; news flow remains supportive (GS PT raise, Korea AI partnership, CEO optimism on China). Maintain the plan: targets 223–229, stop 190. If not filled today (close slightly above entry max 202), be patient for a pullback into 199–202 next session rather than chase into the 210–212 resistance band. A decisive break-and-hold over ~210 would strengthen momentum; conversely, a close <195 on expanding volume would weaken the thesis and prompt tightening/reassessment in a future update.
Confidence 93%
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