State of Market: Close 11/20/25
Tech-led selloff drags stocks into the close; Treasuries firm, commodities and crypto retreat
Early AI-fueled bounce fades as investors reassess growth leadership; retail headlines and policy uncertainty keep risk appetite in check
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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Overview
U.S. equities finished lower on Thursday in a broad, tech-led decline that faded an early rebound. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) closed down roughly 1.5% versus Wednesday’s finish, the Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) fell about 2.4%, and the Dow (DIA) slipped nearly 0.8%. Small caps (IWM) underperformed large-cap value but still declined about 1.8%. An early rally tied to artificial-intelligence optimism lost momentum into the afternoon, consistent with reporting that a “Nvidia-inspired rebound” faltered as doubts over the durability of the AI trade re-emerged.
Against that risk-off equity tone, Treasuries firmed modestly across the curve, with long- and intermediate-duration bond ETFs ending higher on the day. Commodities were broadly weaker, with crude oil, natural gas, and silver down, while gold was essentially flat. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ether extended their recent drawdown, with Bitcoin trading below $90,000 in line with negative fund-flow headlines.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields last reported on November 18 showed a 10-year at 4.12% and 30-year at 4.74%, with the 2-year at 3.58% and 5-year at 3.70%. Today’s price action in duration—TLT, IEF, and SHY all ended modestly higher—signals a mild intraday bid for safety and a drift lower in yields from those recent marks. While we do not have today’s official yield prints, the price gains in duration are directionally consistent with some easing in growth and inflation concerns into the close.
On inflation, the most recent Consumer Price Index readings available (September) show headline CPI at 324.368 (index level) and core CPI at 330.542. Inflation expectations remain anchored in the low-2s on medium- and long-term horizons by model estimates, with a 1-year model at about 2.75%, 5-year near 2.32%, and 10-year around 2.29%. Separate market-based gauges referenced in recent data place 5-year and 10-year expectations at approximately 2.36% and 2.31%, respectively, suggesting the market views longer-run inflation as contained even as near-term dynamics remain fluid.
Policy uncertainty was a background theme. Federal Reserve minutes recently noted “strongly differing views” over whether to cut rates again in December, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will not release a full October jobs report, with November’s report coming out late—leaving policymakers and markets with less high-frequency labor data heading into the early-December meeting. That data gap raises the odds that near-term positioning reacts more to market-derived signals (yields, curves, breakevens) and corporate earnings guidance than to definitive macro datapoints.
Equities: AI leadership wobble and mixed retail signals
The day’s leadership was clearly defensive, with high-beta growth lagging. Technology (XLK) fell about 3.1%, leading sector declines and reflecting a sharp giveback in mega-cap and semiconductor-linked sentiment. The early-session relief tied to positive takeaways from Nvidia’s results couldn’t hold; by late day, the idea of an “AI pause” in leadership reasserted itself, in line with reporting that the rebound “faltered” as investors questioned how broad and durable AI-driven earnings power will be across the supply chain.
Macro narratives around the AI complex remain two-sided. On the positive side, some analysis argued that Nvidia’s strong networking growth and visibility “soothed” markets and could support select peers, while other commentary highlighted AMD as a beneficiary. Offsetting that, a separate thread warned of a potential 2026 headwind if heavy AI capex causes companies to reduce share repurchases, removing a key source of equity demand. The net effect today was negative for the sector tape, with XLK down meaningfully even as the longer-term AI thesis remains widely debated.
Beyond tech, the consumer picture stayed mixed. Walmart’s stock was reported lower after Sam’s Club same-store sales came in light relative to expectations in an otherwise solid report, while Target’s shares were described as falling after a profit beat was overshadowed by a third straight quarter of comp declines and a trimmed full-year outlook. In contrast, off-price retail remains a bright spot: TJX’s parent delivered beats “on all the key metrics,” with shares climbing to record territory. Home-improvement was another pocket of relative resilience; Lowe’s beat and bested a key sales metric versus a major peer, and the stock “bounced,” even as management lowered the full-year profit outlook to reflect macro uncertainty.
Healthcare headlines centered on strategic moves and portfolio reshaping. Abbott’s $21 billion deal to acquire Exact Sciences and its Cologuard test underscores the ongoing push by large-cap medtech into diagnostics as growth platforms. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth is making sweeping changes to Medicare Advantage plans, including dropping a million seniors to restore margins—another signal that payors are actively rebalancing product economics after a period of cost pressures.
Industrial and aerospace news skewed negative at the margin. An initial report on a UPS cargo jet crash, accompanied by dramatic imagery, coincided with investors dumping shares of Boeing and GE Aerospace. While today’s benchmarks don’t isolate single-name impacts, the tone around the aerospace complex was cautious.
Financials (XLF) closed lower by about 0.9%, reflecting the broader risk-off stance and curve dynamics. Verizon’s new CEO outlined job cuts of 13,000 to make the company “faster and more focused,” highlighting how legacy telecoms are pushing for cost efficiencies in a slower growth environment. In cybersecurity, Palo Alto Networks’ latest results “failed to wow,” reinforcing a pattern where good prints have been insufficient to overcome a more selective appetite for richly valued growth stories.
Small caps (IWM) fell about 1.8%. The persistent relative challenge for small caps—spotlighted in recent analysis that questioned their ability to catch up sustainably—remains in focus given higher financing costs and a less forgiving growth backdrop.
Sectors
- Technology (XLK): Down about 3.1%, the day’s laggard, as the AI trade’s relief bounce lost steam.
- Financials (XLF): Down around 0.9%, hurt by the equity risk-off tone and a mild bid for duration.
- Energy (XLE): Off roughly 0.5%, consistent with weaker crude and broad commodity softness.
- Health Care (XLV): Down about 0.6% despite deal activity; defensive characteristics weren’t enough to offset the broader selloff.
Bonds: Duration bids as stocks slide
Treasuries caught a modest bid as equities sold off. Long duration (TLT) rose about 0.4% on the day, intermediate (IEF) gained roughly 0.25%, and front-end exposure (SHY) edged up about 0.1%. These moves are directionally consistent with a small decline in yields versus the November 18 levels of 4.12% on the 10-year and 4.74% on the 30-year. With Fed minutes showing divided views on the December decision and a thinner macro calendar due to delayed jobs data, rates markets may remain sensitive to incoming corporate guidance and any shifts in inflation expectations.
Commodities: Broad softness, gold steady
Gold (GLD) was essentially unchanged, finishing marginally below the prior close. Silver (SLV) declined by roughly 1.4%, extending recent volatility after a strong year-to-date run. Energy was weaker: U.S. Oil Fund (USO) fell about 1.0%, and natural gas (UNG) slid close to 1.9%. The broad commodities basket (DBC) was down nearly 0.9%, reflecting generalized softness across the complex.
External oil-market headlines pointed to shifting trade flows—Russia-to-India cargoes racing ahead of sanctions deadlines and India boosting Saudi purchases—adding a layer of uncertainty around near-term physical balances. While not directly reflected in today’s ETF moves, these flows can influence term structure and volatility.
FX and crypto: Euro steady quote; crypto under pressure
EURUSD was quoted around 1.1524 late in the session. Without a prior-day reference in today’s payload, we do not infer a directional change. The bigger story remained crypto, where weakness persisted. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked near 86,306 into the close, down about 7% from the day’s open, with an intraday range roughly 93,100 to 85,974. Ether (ETHUSD) traded near 2,831, also down about 7% on the session, within a band of roughly 3,062 to 2,786. Headlines highlighted a crypto bear market dragging Bitcoin below $90,000 and record outflows from a major Bitcoin ETF—both consistent with the price action and indicating deteriorating sentiment and liquidity.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- AI complex: Coverage emphasized that while Nvidia’s quarter included positive elements—such as strong networking and visibility—the broader AI trade remains vulnerable to positioning swings. One risk flagged by strategists is that elevated AI capex could constrain buybacks in 2026, reducing a critical marginal buyer of equities.
- Retail: Walmart’s and Target’s updates reinforced a cautious consumer narrative, while off-price (TJX) and select home improvement (Lowe’s) offered counterpoints with better execution and, in Lowe’s case, conservative guidance.
- Healthcare M&A and portfolio moves: Abbott’s planned $21 billion purchase of Exact Sciences places a larger bet on diagnostics growth; UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage changes aim to restore profitability.
- Industrials/aerospace: The UPS cargo jet crash update coincided with selling in Boeing and GE Aerospace.
- Labor and services: Starbucks’ union escalated strike actions during the holiday season, though the company said operations were not yet disrupted.
- Security and telco: Palo Alto Networks underwhelmed relative to hopes; Verizon announced significant job cuts to streamline operations.
Outlook
Near-term trading likely hinges on three factors: the path of yields, the durability of AI leadership, and consumer spending through the holiday period. With the October jobs report canceled and November’s data delayed, the market lacks a clean macro catalyst before the Fed’s early-December meeting. That elevates the importance of market-based indicators (breakevens, curves) and sector-specific news. Watch for:
- Further confirmation from rates: If duration continues to bid, that may cushion equity downside but also signal growth worries.
- Holiday retail reads: Company updates and channel checks around Black Friday/Cyber Week could recalibrate consumer expectations after mixed big-box results.
- AI supply chain signals: Commentary from chipmakers, cloud providers, and enterprise buyers on orders, networking, and power availability can sway sentiment in tech.
- Energy flows and prices: Russian-to-India cargo dynamics and any sanctions-related supply shifts could affect volatility in crude and refined products.
- Crypto liquidity: ETF flows and price stability around key round numbers for Bitcoin and Ether.
Risks
- Positioning and buyback risk in the AI complex: Any slowdown in corporate repurchases could reduce a key source of equity demand in 2026.
- Policy/data uncertainty: Divergent Fed views on December and the delayed labor reports raise the risk of policy surprises.
- Consumer softness: Big-box traffic/spend declines and affordability headwinds could weigh on Q4 sales and 2026 guidance.
- Geopolitical and commodity shocks: Sanctions timelines and shifting oil trade flows may introduce energy-price volatility.
- FX and global policy: Renewed yen weakness and debate over Bank of Japan policy, along with dollar dynamics, could tighten global financial conditions.
- Liquidity stress in speculative assets: Ongoing crypto outflows may spill over into broader risk sentiment if volatility spikes.
Bottom line
Today’s close reflected a classic de-risking day: growth-led equity weakness, a modest bid for Treasuries, broad commodity softness, and heavy crypto pressure. While long-run AI fundamentals and selective consumer strength remain in play, the tape is demanding evidence—on earnings durability, capital return, and holiday demand—before re-extending risk. Until clearer macro signals arrive, expect choppy leadership and a higher premium on balance-sheet strength, pricing power, and cash generation.
Overview
U.S. equities finished lower on Thursday in a broad, tech-led decline that faded an early rebound. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) closed down roughly 1.5% versus Wednesday’s finish, the Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) fell about 2.4%, and the Dow (DIA) slipped nearly 0.8%. Small caps (IWM) underperformed large-cap value but still declined about 1.8%. An early rally tied to artificial-intelligence optimism lost momentum into the afternoon, consistent with reporting that a “Nvidia-inspired rebound” faltered as doubts over the durability of the AI trade re-emerged.
Against that risk-off equity tone, Treasuries firmed modestly across the curve, with long- and intermediate-duration bond ETFs ending higher on the day. Commodities were broadly weaker, with crude oil, natural gas, and silver down, while gold was essentially flat. In crypto, Bitcoin and Ether extended their recent drawdown, with Bitcoin trading below $90,000 in line with negative fund-flow headlines.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields last reported on November 18 showed a 10-year at 4.12% and 30-year at 4.74%, with the 2-year at 3.58% and 5-year at 3.70%. Today’s price action in duration—TLT, IEF, and SHY all ended modestly higher—signals a mild intraday bid for safety and a drift lower in yields from those recent marks. While we do not have today’s official yield prints, the price gains in duration are directionally consistent with some easing in growth and inflation concerns into the close.
On inflation, the most recent Consumer Price Index readings available (September) show headline CPI at 324.368 (index level) and core CPI at 330.542. Inflation expectations remain anchored in the low-2s on medium- and long-term horizons by model estimates, with a 1-year model at about 2.75%, 5-year near 2.32%, and 10-year around 2.29%. Separate market-based gauges referenced in recent data place 5-year and 10-year expectations at approximately 2.36% and 2.31%, respectively, suggesting the market views longer-run inflation as contained even as near-term dynamics remain fluid.
Policy uncertainty was a background theme. Federal Reserve minutes recently noted “strongly differing views” over whether to cut rates again in December, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will not release a full October jobs report, with November’s report coming out late—leaving policymakers and markets with less high-frequency labor data heading into the early-December meeting. That data gap raises the odds that near-term positioning reacts more to market-derived signals (yields, curves, breakevens) and corporate earnings guidance than to definitive macro datapoints.
Equities: AI leadership wobble and mixed retail signals
The day’s leadership was clearly defensive, with high-beta growth lagging. Technology (XLK) fell about 3.1%, leading sector declines and reflecting a sharp giveback in mega-cap and semiconductor-linked sentiment. The early-session relief tied to positive takeaways from Nvidia’s results couldn’t hold; by late day, the idea of an “AI pause” in leadership reasserted itself, in line with reporting that the rebound “faltered” as investors questioned how broad and durable AI-driven earnings power will be across the supply chain.
Macro narratives around the AI complex remain two-sided. On the positive side, some analysis argued that Nvidia’s strong networking growth and visibility “soothed” markets and could support select peers, while other commentary highlighted AMD as a beneficiary. Offsetting that, a separate thread warned of a potential 2026 headwind if heavy AI capex causes companies to reduce share repurchases, removing a key source of equity demand. The net effect today was negative for the sector tape, with XLK down meaningfully even as the longer-term AI thesis remains widely debated.
Beyond tech, the consumer picture stayed mixed. Walmart’s stock was reported lower after Sam’s Club same-store sales came in light relative to expectations in an otherwise solid report, while Target’s shares were described as falling after a profit beat was overshadowed by a third straight quarter of comp declines and a trimmed full-year outlook. In contrast, off-price retail remains a bright spot: TJX’s parent delivered beats “on all the key metrics,” with shares climbing to record territory. Home-improvement was another pocket of relative resilience; Lowe’s beat and bested a key sales metric versus a major peer, and the stock “bounced,” even as management lowered the full-year profit outlook to reflect macro uncertainty.
Healthcare headlines centered on strategic moves and portfolio reshaping. Abbott’s $21 billion deal to acquire Exact Sciences and its Cologuard test underscores the ongoing push by large-cap medtech into diagnostics as growth platforms. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth is making sweeping changes to Medicare Advantage plans, including dropping a million seniors to restore margins—another signal that payors are actively rebalancing product economics after a period of cost pressures.
Industrial and aerospace news skewed negative at the margin. An initial report on a UPS cargo jet crash, accompanied by dramatic imagery, coincided with investors dumping shares of Boeing and GE Aerospace. While today’s benchmarks don’t isolate single-name impacts, the tone around the aerospace complex was cautious.
Financials (XLF) closed lower by about 0.9%, reflecting the broader risk-off stance and curve dynamics. Verizon’s new CEO outlined job cuts of 13,000 to make the company “faster and more focused,” highlighting how legacy telecoms are pushing for cost efficiencies in a slower growth environment. In cybersecurity, Palo Alto Networks’ latest results “failed to wow,” reinforcing a pattern where good prints have been insufficient to overcome a more selective appetite for richly valued growth stories.
Small caps (IWM) fell about 1.8%. The persistent relative challenge for small caps—spotlighted in recent analysis that questioned their ability to catch up sustainably—remains in focus given higher financing costs and a less forgiving growth backdrop.
Sectors
- Technology (XLK): Down about 3.1%, the day’s laggard, as the AI trade’s relief bounce lost steam.
- Financials (XLF): Down around 0.9%, hurt by the equity risk-off tone and a mild bid for duration.
- Energy (XLE): Off roughly 0.5%, consistent with weaker crude and broad commodity softness.
- Health Care (XLV): Down about 0.6% despite deal activity; defensive characteristics weren’t enough to offset the broader selloff.
Bonds: Duration bids as stocks slide
Treasuries caught a modest bid as equities sold off. Long duration (TLT) rose about 0.4% on the day, intermediate (IEF) gained roughly 0.25%, and front-end exposure (SHY) edged up about 0.1%. These moves are directionally consistent with a small decline in yields versus the November 18 levels of 4.12% on the 10-year and 4.74% on the 30-year. With Fed minutes showing divided views on the December decision and a thinner macro calendar due to delayed jobs data, rates markets may remain sensitive to incoming corporate guidance and any shifts in inflation expectations.
Commodities: Broad softness, gold steady
Gold (GLD) was essentially unchanged, finishing marginally below the prior close. Silver (SLV) declined by roughly 1.4%, extending recent volatility after a strong year-to-date run. Energy was weaker: U.S. Oil Fund (USO) fell about 1.0%, and natural gas (UNG) slid close to 1.9%. The broad commodities basket (DBC) was down nearly 0.9%, reflecting generalized softness across the complex.
External oil-market headlines pointed to shifting trade flows—Russia-to-India cargoes racing ahead of sanctions deadlines and India boosting Saudi purchases—adding a layer of uncertainty around near-term physical balances. While not directly reflected in today’s ETF moves, these flows can influence term structure and volatility.
FX and crypto: Euro steady quote; crypto under pressure
EURUSD was quoted around 1.1524 late in the session. Without a prior-day reference in today’s payload, we do not infer a directional change. The bigger story remained crypto, where weakness persisted. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked near 86,306 into the close, down about 7% from the day’s open, with an intraday range roughly 93,100 to 85,974. Ether (ETHUSD) traded near 2,831, also down about 7% on the session, within a band of roughly 3,062 to 2,786. Headlines highlighted a crypto bear market dragging Bitcoin below $90,000 and record outflows from a major Bitcoin ETF—both consistent with the price action and indicating deteriorating sentiment and liquidity.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- AI complex: Coverage emphasized that while Nvidia’s quarter included positive elements—such as strong networking and visibility—the broader AI trade remains vulnerable to positioning swings. One risk flagged by strategists is that elevated AI capex could constrain buybacks in 2026, reducing a critical marginal buyer of equities.
- Retail: Walmart’s and Target’s updates reinforced a cautious consumer narrative, while off-price (TJX) and select home improvement (Lowe’s) offered counterpoints with better execution and, in Lowe’s case, conservative guidance.
- Healthcare M&A and portfolio moves: Abbott’s planned $21 billion purchase of Exact Sciences places a larger bet on diagnostics growth; UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage changes aim to restore profitability.
- Industrials/aerospace: The UPS cargo jet crash update coincided with selling in Boeing and GE Aerospace.
- Labor and services: Starbucks’ union escalated strike actions during the holiday season, though the company said operations were not yet disrupted.
- Security and telco: Palo Alto Networks underwhelmed relative to hopes; Verizon announced significant job cuts to streamline operations.
Outlook
Near-term trading likely hinges on three factors: the path of yields, the durability of AI leadership, and consumer spending through the holiday period. With the October jobs report canceled and November’s data delayed, the market lacks a clean macro catalyst before the Fed’s early-December meeting. That elevates the importance of market-based indicators (breakevens, curves) and sector-specific news. Watch for:
- Further confirmation from rates: If duration continues to bid, that may cushion equity downside but also signal growth worries.
- Holiday retail reads: Company updates and channel checks around Black Friday/Cyber Week could recalibrate consumer expectations after mixed big-box results.
- AI supply chain signals: Commentary from chipmakers, cloud providers, and enterprise buyers on orders, networking, and power availability can sway sentiment in tech.
- Energy flows and prices: Russian-to-India cargo dynamics and any sanctions-related supply shifts could affect volatility in crude and refined products.
- Crypto liquidity: ETF flows and price stability around key round numbers for Bitcoin and Ether.
Risks
- Positioning and buyback risk in the AI complex: Any slowdown in corporate repurchases could reduce a key source of equity demand in 2026.
- Policy/data uncertainty: Divergent Fed views on December and the delayed labor reports raise the risk of policy surprises.
- Consumer softness: Big-box traffic/spend declines and affordability headwinds could weigh on Q4 sales and 2026 guidance.
- Geopolitical and commodity shocks: Sanctions timelines and shifting oil trade flows may introduce energy-price volatility.
- FX and global policy: Renewed yen weakness and debate over Bank of Japan policy, along with dollar dynamics, could tighten global financial conditions.
- Liquidity stress in speculative assets: Ongoing crypto outflows may spill over into broader risk sentiment if volatility spikes.
Bottom line
Today’s close reflected a classic de-risking day: growth-led equity weakness, a modest bid for Treasuries, broad commodity softness, and heavy crypto pressure. While long-run AI fundamentals and selective consumer strength remain in play, the tape is demanding evidence—on earnings durability, capital return, and holiday demand—before re-extending risk. Until clearer macro signals arrive, expect choppy leadership and a higher premium on balance-sheet strength, pricing power, and cash generation.