State of Market: Midday 11/24/25
Tech-led rebound lifts U.S. equities midday; 10-year holds near 4.10% as gold and oil firm, crypto stabilizes
QQQ leads gains into the holiday-shortened week while small caps and defensives participate. Policy uncertainty persists with October CPI canceled and November inflation delayed, keeping attention on the Fed’s December decision.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Markets are working higher into midday Monday as investors seek footing after recent volatility and head into a shortened Thanksgiving week. The advance is broad but led by technology, while small caps and defensives are participating alongside a steadier Treasury backdrop and firmer precious metals. Crypto, a notable pressure point in recent sessions, is stabilizing on the day even as headlines continue to debate the durability of risk appetite.
Equities overview
Broad U.S. equity proxies are meaningfully higher. The S&P 500 via SPY is trading at 669.14, up about 1.53% versus Friday’s close of 659.03. The Nasdaq-100, represented by QQQ, is outperforming at 605.06, up roughly 2.54% from 590.07, reflecting a bid for growth and AI-linked exposure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average proxy DIA is firmer at 465.47, up around 0.63% from 462.57, and small caps (IWM) are also bid at 239.64, gaining about 1.72% compared to 235.60. The tone is constructive across styles, with leadership concentrated in mega-cap tech but confirmation from cyclicals and small-cap breadth.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation and expectations
Treasury yields are steady to slightly lower across the curve, providing a supportive valuation backdrop for equities. As of the latest read, the 2-year is at 3.55%, the 5-year at 3.68%, the 10-year at 4.10%, and the 30-year at 4.73%. The curve is upward sloping into the long end, with the 10-year above the front end and the 30-year meaningfully higher, a configuration that removes some of the acute inversion pressure investors contended with earlier this year. Bond ETFs reflect the same tone: TLT is up about 0.55% versus Friday, IEF is higher by roughly 0.11%, and SHY is essentially unchanged-to-slightly higher.
Policy uncertainty remains a key theme into December. Articles note that October CPI was canceled and November inflation data have been pushed back until after the Fed’s next rate decision, limiting the central bank’s visibility into the latest price trends. Market-based inflation expectations remain anchored: 5-year near 2.36% and 10-year about 2.31%, while the 5y5y forward sits around 2.25%. Model-based expectations point to firmer near-term inflation (1-year near 2.74%) that gradually converges toward the Fed’s target zone over time (5- and 10-year models around 2.32% and 2.29%, respectively). Taken together, today’s yield levels and the anchored long-run expectations support the view that easier financial conditions could persist if growth remains resilient and the Fed proceeds with additional accommodation, a debate that has intensified after recent commentary from policymakers in prior sessions.
Sector and thematic drivers
Technology is pacing gains. XLK is up roughly 2.60% versus its prior close (280.29 vs. 273.20), consistent with an improving risk tone in AI and cloud-exposed names. News flow is active: Amazon announced plans to spend up to $50 billion on AI infrastructure serving the U.S. government, with 1.3 gigawatts of new data center capacity slated and ground-breaking expected in 2026. The headline underscores the durability of AI capital expenditure plans from hyperscalers and the potential for long-duration revenue streams tied to sovereign and public sector workloads. Separately, a MarketWatch piece flags a new bullish defense of Meta Platforms, emphasizing that elevated AI spending is competitively necessary and may pay off over time. At the same time, other analysis highlights Google’s progress in AI, including reliance on custom silicon, which can pressure investor sentiment in merchant GPU suppliers as competitive moats shift. The mix of headlines captures a nuanced backdrop: continued heavy AI capex by cloud leaders, intensifying competition, and potential value chains that extend beyond a single vendor.
Defensives and cyclicals are also participating. XLV (health care) is up about 0.69% (155.68 vs. 154.61), XLF (financials) is up around 0.35% (51.85 vs. 51.67), and utilities (XLU) are higher by roughly 0.73% (88.79 vs. 88.15). The participation of defensives alongside tech strength speaks to a broader stabilization in risk appetite rather than a narrow, factor-driven squeeze.
At the single-name level, select corporate headlines offer additional color. Tesla remains a focal point: one report details a three-year low in China sales in October, raising questions about 2025 delivery trajectories in that key market; another notes Tesla is nearing tape-out of its AI5 chip and beginning work on AI6, signaling ongoing investment in in-house compute for autonomy and AI. In retail, Kohl’s named Michael Bender as permanent CEO after a turbulent stretch and sales declines, a leadership move that will keep attention on holiday execution and strategic repositioning. In biopharma, Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 failed to meet hopes for Alzheimer’s, with the stock described as tumbling on the news in coverage; the result adds nuance to the broader enthusiasm around GLP-1 platforms. More broadly, commentary last week highlighted Eli Lilly briefly surpassing the $1 trillion market cap threshold, reflecting the scale of investor interest in the category, even as trial results across indications remain mixed.
Bonds: prices firm as duration stabilizes
- TLT last 89.995 vs. 89.50 prior (+0.55% approximate), IEF 97.295 vs. 97.19 (+0.11%), SHY 83.039 vs. 83.03 (flat-to-slightly higher). The combination of anchored long-run inflation expectations and a 10-year around 4.10% has allowed duration to find a footing intraday. With key inflation reports delayed, rate volatility may be most sensitive to growth surprises and incoming Fed communications as the December decision approaches.
Commodities: precious metals and crude firmer, nat gas softer
- Gold (GLD) is higher at 376.70 versus 374.27 (+~0.65%). A Bloomberg item noted that gold had trimmed losses after recent Fed commentary signaled the possibility of a near-term cut; today’s firming aligns with that narrative of easing policy tailwinds amid resilient demand. Silver (SLV) is up more sharply at 45.92 vs. 45.30 (+~1.37%), reflecting beta to the precious complex.
- Oil is buoyant: USO trades at 70.19 vs. 69.30 (+~1.28%), helping lift broad commodity proxies, with DBC at 22.58 vs. 22.53 (+~0.22%). Stronger crude aligns with a pro-cyclical equity tone and may keep an eye on the inflation narrative if sustained.
- Natural gas (UNG) is an exception, at 14.46 vs. 14.65 (-~1.30%). Headlines over the weekend also highlighted infrastructure and grid risks tied to data center expansion in Texas during extreme winter weather, a reminder that utility demand profiles and energy commodity balances can be volatile into the colder months.
FX and crypto: tight EURUSD range; crypto steadies on the day amid mixed sentiment
- EURUSD is trading near 1.1516, essentially flat versus its stated open (1.1514), with an intraday range between roughly 1.1506 and 1.1545. The muted move is consistent with the broader theme of consolidation ahead of U.S. data and the Fed meeting timeline.
- Crypto is stabilizing intraday: BTCUSD marks around 88,355 versus an open near 86,698 (+~1.9%), with a session range between ~85,176 and ~88,631; ETHUSD is firmer at ~2,936 versus ~2,824 open (+~4.0%), ranging ~2,783 to ~2,955. Still, the broader narrative is cautious. Multiple pieces over the past several days highlighted bitcoin’s pullback from its October record, with specific references to price prints near 86,000 and even 80,000 amid rising volatility and thinning liquidity for market makers. One analysis referenced a “Tinkerbell” effect—emphasizing the importance of investor belief to sustain prices—underscoring that crypto may remain a barometer of overall risk appetite. Today’s bounce helps calm nerves but does not settle the medium-term debate.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- Amazon (AMZN): Plans to spend up to $50 billion on AI infrastructure for U.S. government workloads, adding 1.3 gigawatts of data center capacity and breaking ground in 2026. The spend underlines the long runway for AI capex and potential multiyear public-sector demand for sovereign-grade cloud and AI services.
- Meta Platforms (META): A new defense from the sell-side argues AI spend is necessary and ultimately value-accretive, implying tolerance for elevated opex/capex in pursuit of durable AI scale.
- Alphabet/Google (GOOGL): Reports frame Google’s progress in AI—and custom chip deployment—as both a driver for the company and a competitive pressure point for merchant GPU suppliers, contributing to crosscurrents in AI-adjacent equities.
- Tesla (TSLA): Mixed signals, with soft October China sales juxtaposed against internal chip roadmap progress (AI5 nearing tape-out, AI6 development starting).
- Kohl’s (KSS): Names Michael Bender as permanent CEO after a difficult year and sales declines; attention turns to holiday execution and margin discipline.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): Oral GLP-1 failed to deliver hoped-for Alzheimer’s efficacy; shares were described as tumbling in coverage, a reminder of pipeline risk even for category leaders.
How it fits together
Today’s tape reflects a constructive reset: stable rates with a 10-year near 4.10% and anchored long-run inflation expectations are providing room for duration and growth equities to rally after a bumpy stretch. Technology leadership is supported by tangible AI-related capex commitments (AMZN) and continued debate about platform moats (GOOGL, META), while small caps and cyclicals are participating, suggesting the move is not solely a mega-cap phenomenon. Precious metals are firmer and oil is higher, consistent with a soft-landing configuration where policy eases, growth remains adequate, and geopolitical or supply dynamics keep commodities supported. Crypto is stabilizing intraday but remains a source of two-way risk.
Near-term, the policy calendar is the swing factor. With October CPI canceled and November inflation delayed until after the Fed’s December meeting, official data-dependent visibility is limited. Markets will lean more heavily on high-frequency growth signals, corporate guidance (particularly from holiday-sensitive retailers), and rate-path communications from the Fed. Commentary late last week that entertained another cut in December, together with improving S&P survey data on business activity after the shutdown, sets the stage for a market that is quick to price easing—benefiting duration and growth—while remaining vulnerable to upside surprises in inflation or downside surprises in demand.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Afternoon session breadth: whether small caps and financials keep pace with tech leadership into the close.
- Retail earnings and holiday reads: Burlington, Best Buy, Kohl’s and others are due this week in the run-up to Black Friday; watch traffic, promotions, and margin commentary for consumer-health signals.
- Rates and dollar: Stability around the 10-year near 4.10% and a range-bound EURUSD would reinforce today’s equity tone; any breakouts could ripple through factor leadership.
- AI capex follow-through: Additional details on public-sector AI workloads and custom silicon roadmaps can shift relative sentiment across hyperscalers, vendors, and semis.
- Crypto volatility: Whether today’s stabilization extends; bitcoin’s behavior has been a useful barometer of broader risk appetite in recent weeks according to several analyses.
Key risks
- Data blackout: With CPI timing disrupted, the Fed may need to make decisions with partial information, elevating policy-error risk.
- AI investment concentration: Heavy, debt-financed AI spending among megacaps raises questions about return on capital and potential crowd-out effects; competitive shifts (e.g., custom chips) can re-rate suppliers.
- Consumer resilience: Retail updates could expose sensitivity at lower-income cohorts, affecting discretionary and staples mix.
- Global growth and geopolitics: China auto demand softness (Tesla lens) and trade/tariff uncertainties can influence cyclicals.
- Market structure in crypto: Thin liquidity and elevated leverage can amplify swings, with spillovers to broader risk if volatility spikes.
Bottom line
Into midday, risk assets are rebuilding confidence: tech leads, rates are steady, and commodities are constructive. The advance is helped by tangible AI-related commitments, broad sector participation, and a calmer crypto tape. With critical inflation data delayed and the Fed decision approaching, the path of least resistance hinges on stable yields and supportive holiday updates. Positioning and liquidity around the truncated week could exaggerate moves, so vigilance into the close and through key earnings remains warranted.
Markets are working higher into midday Monday as investors seek footing after recent volatility and head into a shortened Thanksgiving week. The advance is broad but led by technology, while small caps and defensives are participating alongside a steadier Treasury backdrop and firmer precious metals. Crypto, a notable pressure point in recent sessions, is stabilizing on the day even as headlines continue to debate the durability of risk appetite.
Equities overview
Broad U.S. equity proxies are meaningfully higher. The S&P 500 via SPY is trading at 669.14, up about 1.53% versus Friday’s close of 659.03. The Nasdaq-100, represented by QQQ, is outperforming at 605.06, up roughly 2.54% from 590.07, reflecting a bid for growth and AI-linked exposure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average proxy DIA is firmer at 465.47, up around 0.63% from 462.57, and small caps (IWM) are also bid at 239.64, gaining about 1.72% compared to 235.60. The tone is constructive across styles, with leadership concentrated in mega-cap tech but confirmation from cyclicals and small-cap breadth.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation and expectations
Treasury yields are steady to slightly lower across the curve, providing a supportive valuation backdrop for equities. As of the latest read, the 2-year is at 3.55%, the 5-year at 3.68%, the 10-year at 4.10%, and the 30-year at 4.73%. The curve is upward sloping into the long end, with the 10-year above the front end and the 30-year meaningfully higher, a configuration that removes some of the acute inversion pressure investors contended with earlier this year. Bond ETFs reflect the same tone: TLT is up about 0.55% versus Friday, IEF is higher by roughly 0.11%, and SHY is essentially unchanged-to-slightly higher.
Policy uncertainty remains a key theme into December. Articles note that October CPI was canceled and November inflation data have been pushed back until after the Fed’s next rate decision, limiting the central bank’s visibility into the latest price trends. Market-based inflation expectations remain anchored: 5-year near 2.36% and 10-year about 2.31%, while the 5y5y forward sits around 2.25%. Model-based expectations point to firmer near-term inflation (1-year near 2.74%) that gradually converges toward the Fed’s target zone over time (5- and 10-year models around 2.32% and 2.29%, respectively). Taken together, today’s yield levels and the anchored long-run expectations support the view that easier financial conditions could persist if growth remains resilient and the Fed proceeds with additional accommodation, a debate that has intensified after recent commentary from policymakers in prior sessions.
Sector and thematic drivers
Technology is pacing gains. XLK is up roughly 2.60% versus its prior close (280.29 vs. 273.20), consistent with an improving risk tone in AI and cloud-exposed names. News flow is active: Amazon announced plans to spend up to $50 billion on AI infrastructure serving the U.S. government, with 1.3 gigawatts of new data center capacity slated and ground-breaking expected in 2026. The headline underscores the durability of AI capital expenditure plans from hyperscalers and the potential for long-duration revenue streams tied to sovereign and public sector workloads. Separately, a MarketWatch piece flags a new bullish defense of Meta Platforms, emphasizing that elevated AI spending is competitively necessary and may pay off over time. At the same time, other analysis highlights Google’s progress in AI, including reliance on custom silicon, which can pressure investor sentiment in merchant GPU suppliers as competitive moats shift. The mix of headlines captures a nuanced backdrop: continued heavy AI capex by cloud leaders, intensifying competition, and potential value chains that extend beyond a single vendor.
Defensives and cyclicals are also participating. XLV (health care) is up about 0.69% (155.68 vs. 154.61), XLF (financials) is up around 0.35% (51.85 vs. 51.67), and utilities (XLU) are higher by roughly 0.73% (88.79 vs. 88.15). The participation of defensives alongside tech strength speaks to a broader stabilization in risk appetite rather than a narrow, factor-driven squeeze.
At the single-name level, select corporate headlines offer additional color. Tesla remains a focal point: one report details a three-year low in China sales in October, raising questions about 2025 delivery trajectories in that key market; another notes Tesla is nearing tape-out of its AI5 chip and beginning work on AI6, signaling ongoing investment in in-house compute for autonomy and AI. In retail, Kohl’s named Michael Bender as permanent CEO after a turbulent stretch and sales declines, a leadership move that will keep attention on holiday execution and strategic repositioning. In biopharma, Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 failed to meet hopes for Alzheimer’s, with the stock described as tumbling on the news in coverage; the result adds nuance to the broader enthusiasm around GLP-1 platforms. More broadly, commentary last week highlighted Eli Lilly briefly surpassing the $1 trillion market cap threshold, reflecting the scale of investor interest in the category, even as trial results across indications remain mixed.
Bonds: prices firm as duration stabilizes
- TLT last 89.995 vs. 89.50 prior (+0.55% approximate), IEF 97.295 vs. 97.19 (+0.11%), SHY 83.039 vs. 83.03 (flat-to-slightly higher). The combination of anchored long-run inflation expectations and a 10-year around 4.10% has allowed duration to find a footing intraday. With key inflation reports delayed, rate volatility may be most sensitive to growth surprises and incoming Fed communications as the December decision approaches.
Commodities: precious metals and crude firmer, nat gas softer
- Gold (GLD) is higher at 376.70 versus 374.27 (+~0.65%). A Bloomberg item noted that gold had trimmed losses after recent Fed commentary signaled the possibility of a near-term cut; today’s firming aligns with that narrative of easing policy tailwinds amid resilient demand. Silver (SLV) is up more sharply at 45.92 vs. 45.30 (+~1.37%), reflecting beta to the precious complex.
- Oil is buoyant: USO trades at 70.19 vs. 69.30 (+~1.28%), helping lift broad commodity proxies, with DBC at 22.58 vs. 22.53 (+~0.22%). Stronger crude aligns with a pro-cyclical equity tone and may keep an eye on the inflation narrative if sustained.
- Natural gas (UNG) is an exception, at 14.46 vs. 14.65 (-~1.30%). Headlines over the weekend also highlighted infrastructure and grid risks tied to data center expansion in Texas during extreme winter weather, a reminder that utility demand profiles and energy commodity balances can be volatile into the colder months.
FX and crypto: tight EURUSD range; crypto steadies on the day amid mixed sentiment
- EURUSD is trading near 1.1516, essentially flat versus its stated open (1.1514), with an intraday range between roughly 1.1506 and 1.1545. The muted move is consistent with the broader theme of consolidation ahead of U.S. data and the Fed meeting timeline.
- Crypto is stabilizing intraday: BTCUSD marks around 88,355 versus an open near 86,698 (+~1.9%), with a session range between ~85,176 and ~88,631; ETHUSD is firmer at ~2,936 versus ~2,824 open (+~4.0%), ranging ~2,783 to ~2,955. Still, the broader narrative is cautious. Multiple pieces over the past several days highlighted bitcoin’s pullback from its October record, with specific references to price prints near 86,000 and even 80,000 amid rising volatility and thinning liquidity for market makers. One analysis referenced a “Tinkerbell” effect—emphasizing the importance of investor belief to sustain prices—underscoring that crypto may remain a barometer of overall risk appetite. Today’s bounce helps calm nerves but does not settle the medium-term debate.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- Amazon (AMZN): Plans to spend up to $50 billion on AI infrastructure for U.S. government workloads, adding 1.3 gigawatts of data center capacity and breaking ground in 2026. The spend underlines the long runway for AI capex and potential multiyear public-sector demand for sovereign-grade cloud and AI services.
- Meta Platforms (META): A new defense from the sell-side argues AI spend is necessary and ultimately value-accretive, implying tolerance for elevated opex/capex in pursuit of durable AI scale.
- Alphabet/Google (GOOGL): Reports frame Google’s progress in AI—and custom chip deployment—as both a driver for the company and a competitive pressure point for merchant GPU suppliers, contributing to crosscurrents in AI-adjacent equities.
- Tesla (TSLA): Mixed signals, with soft October China sales juxtaposed against internal chip roadmap progress (AI5 nearing tape-out, AI6 development starting).
- Kohl’s (KSS): Names Michael Bender as permanent CEO after a difficult year and sales declines; attention turns to holiday execution and margin discipline.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): Oral GLP-1 failed to deliver hoped-for Alzheimer’s efficacy; shares were described as tumbling in coverage, a reminder of pipeline risk even for category leaders.
How it fits together
Today’s tape reflects a constructive reset: stable rates with a 10-year near 4.10% and anchored long-run inflation expectations are providing room for duration and growth equities to rally after a bumpy stretch. Technology leadership is supported by tangible AI-related capex commitments (AMZN) and continued debate about platform moats (GOOGL, META), while small caps and cyclicals are participating, suggesting the move is not solely a mega-cap phenomenon. Precious metals are firmer and oil is higher, consistent with a soft-landing configuration where policy eases, growth remains adequate, and geopolitical or supply dynamics keep commodities supported. Crypto is stabilizing intraday but remains a source of two-way risk.
Near-term, the policy calendar is the swing factor. With October CPI canceled and November inflation delayed until after the Fed’s December meeting, official data-dependent visibility is limited. Markets will lean more heavily on high-frequency growth signals, corporate guidance (particularly from holiday-sensitive retailers), and rate-path communications from the Fed. Commentary late last week that entertained another cut in December, together with improving S&P survey data on business activity after the shutdown, sets the stage for a market that is quick to price easing—benefiting duration and growth—while remaining vulnerable to upside surprises in inflation or downside surprises in demand.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Afternoon session breadth: whether small caps and financials keep pace with tech leadership into the close.
- Retail earnings and holiday reads: Burlington, Best Buy, Kohl’s and others are due this week in the run-up to Black Friday; watch traffic, promotions, and margin commentary for consumer-health signals.
- Rates and dollar: Stability around the 10-year near 4.10% and a range-bound EURUSD would reinforce today’s equity tone; any breakouts could ripple through factor leadership.
- AI capex follow-through: Additional details on public-sector AI workloads and custom silicon roadmaps can shift relative sentiment across hyperscalers, vendors, and semis.
- Crypto volatility: Whether today’s stabilization extends; bitcoin’s behavior has been a useful barometer of broader risk appetite in recent weeks according to several analyses.
Key risks
- Data blackout: With CPI timing disrupted, the Fed may need to make decisions with partial information, elevating policy-error risk.
- AI investment concentration: Heavy, debt-financed AI spending among megacaps raises questions about return on capital and potential crowd-out effects; competitive shifts (e.g., custom chips) can re-rate suppliers.
- Consumer resilience: Retail updates could expose sensitivity at lower-income cohorts, affecting discretionary and staples mix.
- Global growth and geopolitics: China auto demand softness (Tesla lens) and trade/tariff uncertainties can influence cyclicals.
- Market structure in crypto: Thin liquidity and elevated leverage can amplify swings, with spillovers to broader risk if volatility spikes.
Bottom line
Into midday, risk assets are rebuilding confidence: tech leads, rates are steady, and commodities are constructive. The advance is helped by tangible AI-related commitments, broad sector participation, and a calmer crypto tape. With critical inflation data delayed and the Fed decision approaching, the path of least resistance hinges on stable yields and supportive holiday updates. Positioning and liquidity around the truncated week could exaggerate moves, so vigilance into the close and through key earnings remains warranted.