State of Market: Open 11/17/25
Stocks open softer as tech lags; long bonds and oil edge higher while gold eases
At the bell, SPY and QQQ slip versus Friday’s close as investors look to Nvidia earnings and December event risk. The 10-year sits at 4.11% (latest available), TLT and USO tick up, and bitcoin extends a multi‑day pullback.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Opening overview
U.S. equities started the week on a cautious note. At the open, broad index ETFs were modestly lower versus Friday’s close, with leadership skewed away from large-cap growth. SPY last traded near 669.54, down about 0.36% from its prior close, while QQQ was around 606.13, off roughly 0.45%. The Dow proxy DIA dipped 0.23% to 470.73, and small caps via IWM fell about 0.49% to 236.31. Sector breadth leaned mixed-to-soft, with technology underperforming and energy modestly firmer.
This cautious tone comes as investors focus on a week rich with catalysts. MarketWatch flagged that investors are anxiously awaiting Nvidia’s earnings later this week after a choppy stretch for megacaps, a theme echoed across investor commentary. At the same time, options positioning and a dense macro calendar into December have traders focused on event risk and liquidity dynamics.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, expectations
The most recent Treasury benchmark readings (as of 2025-11-13) show a 2-year at 3.58%, 5-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.11%, and 30-year at 4.70%. The curve remains positively sloped from 2s to 10s, with a relatively elevated long end. That term structure helps contextualize this morning’s modest bid in duration: TLT was up about 0.25% versus Friday’s close, while IEF added approximately 0.11% and SHY was flat. The cautious equity tone alongside a slightly bid Treasury complex suggests incremental risk management into the week’s catalysts rather than a wholesale regime shift.
On inflation, the latest available CPI index level stands at 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542 (September reading). While these are index levels rather than rate changes, the inflation-expectations mix is more informative near term. Market-implied expectations were last around 2.36% for 5-year breakevens, 2.31% for 10-year, and 2.25% for the 5y5y forward; model-based expectations put 1-year at about 2.74%, 5-year at 2.32%, and 10-year at 2.29%. Taken together, the expectations complex remains clustered a touch above 2% over short-to-intermediate horizons, with longer tenors anchored near the low-2s. That anchoring is consistent with a “slow glide” disinflation narrative and offers a macro runway for multiples so long as realized inflation behaves.
Liquidity watch and policy context also matter. CNBC reported that the New York Fed recently met with dealers to discuss the standing repo facility—an important market backstop. Separately, Treasury yields recently firmed as markets welcomed the end of the government shutdown, according to CNBC reporting. While our live quotes reflect Friday’s benchmark levels rather than intraday moves today, the policy tone reinforces the focus on year-end funding conditions and event risks flagged by options traders into December 10.
Equities and sectors
- Broad indices: The opening tone is modestly risk-off. SPY (-0.36% vs prior close), QQQ (-0.45%), DIA (-0.23%), and IWM (-0.49%) all started in the red. The dispersion—tech-heavy QQQ lagging versus the more balanced DIA—points to a continued rotation away from megacap growth at the margins.
- Sectors: Early sector moves align with that rotation narrative. XLK, the technology sector ETF, opened softer at 285.27, about 1.00% below Friday’s 288.15. XLV, healthcare, was down roughly 0.45% to 151.15. XLF, financials, was essentially flat at 52.44. Energy was the standout early: XLE printed around 89.04, up approximately 0.32% versus Friday’s 88.76. The modest bid in energy dovetails with company-level commentary and commodity price action (see below).
The macro-news thread remains influential. MarketWatch highlighted that Morgan Stanley raised its S&P 500 target for next year, citing earnings growth and a more accommodative Fed as drivers of multiple support, while Bank of America’s strategist remains constructive on the so‑called “Santa Flaws” rally. At the same time, Fundstrat cautioned that breadth remains fragile and pointed to key support levels. Layer on top the focus on Nvidia’s upcoming report (as noted by MarketWatch) after a volatile stretch for AI-linked names and you get the push-pull evident in this morning’s mixed breadth.
Company and theme highlights from the newsflow
- Alphabet/AI: Alphabet featured prominently after reporting around Warren Buffett’s Berkshire taking a roughly $4.9 billion stake, and MarketWatch pointed to anticipation around Google’s Gemini 3.0 as the next AI catalyst. While we don’t have a direct GOOGL quote here, this is relevant for XLK sentiment: tech was weaker at the open despite supportive AI narratives, consistent with positioning/sentiment digestion rather than a fundamental shift in the secular story.
- Semiconductors/AI expectations: MarketWatch and CNBC emphasized the market’s preoccupation with Nvidia earnings and commented on concerns about an AI “mania” potentially unwinding. This helps explain QQQ/XLK underperformance and the cautious tone into key prints even as some strategists argue valuations remain justified.
- Aerospace and industrials: MarketWatch reported Boeing’s 777X booked 65 aircraft with Emirates; GE Aerospace received engine orders for those jets. While we don’t have industrial sector quotes in today’s feed, the thematic backdrop remains supportive for long-cycle demand when financing conditions are stable.
- Energy majors and supply: MarketWatch noted Chevron and Exxon plan to keep boosting oil production even as crude prices have softened recently. That strategic posture pairs with today’s small uptick in XLE and a firm USO print at the open.
- Healthcare/GLP-1 pricing: CNBC reported that Novo Nordisk reduced direct-to-consumer pricing for Wegovy and Ozempic to $349/month. XLV was softer at the open; pricing headlines can pressure managed care and weight‑loss ecosystems while also influencing volume dynamics.
- Media and distribution: CNBC confirmed that Google and Disney reached a deal to restore ESPN, ABC and other channels to YouTube TV after a two-week blackout. This eases a discrete overhang for subscribers and advertisers and reinforces streaming’s bargaining power, as MarketWatch also noted.
- Policy/trade: CNBC highlighted tariff cuts on staples like coffee and bananas aimed at lowering consumer prices. While our sector tape lacks consumer-staples quotes, such measures are directionally disinflationary at the margin for specific categories.
Bonds
Treasuries caught a small bid to start the week. TLT was up around 0.25% versus Friday’s 88.87, and IEF added about 0.11%, while SHY was flat. With the most recent 10-year yield at 4.11% and 30-year at 4.70%, duration remains sensitive to incremental inflation and growth surprises. The mix of anchored longer-term inflation expectations with residual event risk argues for range-bound yields near term, absent a shock in the backlog of delayed data or a material growth surprise.
Commodities
- Crude oil: USO ticked up to 71.60 from 71.38 (+0.31%) at the open, with energy equities slightly bid. MarketWatch’s piece on major producers maintaining output growth underscores confidence in longer-cycle returns and cost discipline. Another MarketWatch article highlighted potential geopolitical risk if U.S. military action were to target Venezuela—home to the world’s largest oil reserves—creating upside risk to spreads and domestic fuel supply in a tail scenario.
- Precious metals: Despite safe-haven narratives and MarketWatch noting persistent drivers for gold, GLD eased 0.51% to 374.03 this morning. SLV slipped 0.33% to 45.81. Cross-asset correlation chatter also re-emerged after MarketWatch observed that gold’s recent moves at times tracked equities and bitcoin, a pattern that, if it persists, can reduce portfolio diversification benefits.
- Natural gas and broad commodities: UNG dipped 0.41% to 14.50. The diversified commodities ETF DBC’s most recent consolidated print remained at 22.97, matching Friday’s close, with no fresh open tick visible at the time of writing.
FX and crypto
- FX: EURUSD marked around 1.1594, modestly softer versus its reported open of 1.1626. A slightly firmer dollar tone into event risk is consistent with the cautious equity open.
- Crypto: The crypto complex stayed on the back foot. Bitcoin’s mark price was about 94,052, roughly 1% below its reported open, with an intraday low near 93,447 and high near 95,968. Ether marked around 3,116, about 2.1% below its open, with a low near 3,091. This aligns with weekend and Friday coverage: CNBC noted bitcoin fell below $95,000 as a four-day rout accelerated, and MarketWatch highlighted that long-term holders and “whales” have been distributing—largely framed as profit‑taking—while liquidity absorption has weakened. MarketWatch also chronicled how bitcoin has historically behaved in bear phases, underscoring the path dependence and the tendency for sharp countertrend rallies even within broader drawdowns.
Putting it together
The opening tape shows a defensive bias within equities—tech lagging, energy and long duration a touch firmer—set against relatively anchored inflation expectations and a policy backdrop focused on liquidity tools and year-end event risk. The narrative is less about a single shock and more about digestion: positioning after a long rally, elevated sensitivity to megacap earnings, and the mechanical impact of options and year-end funding.
What to watch next
- Megacap earnings: MarketWatch emphasized that investors are anxiously awaiting Nvidia’s report. Given XLK’s early underperformance, the setup implies asymmetry around AI leadership and market breadth.
- December 10 event risk: MarketWatch flagged options traders’ focus on December 10 as a pivotal date with a “double helping” of risk. Expect gamma and vanna dynamics to influence intraday volatility as we approach that window.
- Bond market tone and the repo backstop: CNBC reporting on the New York Fed’s outreach about the standing repo facility highlights the focus on year-end funding conditions. Watch TLT/IEF behavior alongside front-end funding prints for signals of stress—or the lack thereof.
- Policy and commodities: MarketWatch warned that any U.S. strike on Venezuela could have oil-market ramifications. USO/XLE sensitivity would likely rise if that tail risk were to escalate.
Risks
- Breadth and support levels: Fundstrat warned about fragile breadth and key technical levels. Weakening breadth alongside elevated event risk can amplify drawdowns.
- AI positioning and insider selling: CNBC and MarketWatch commentary raised concerns that enthusiasm could be “unwinding.” If megacap leadership falters post-earnings, QQQ/XLK could extend underperformance.
- Data uncertainty: MarketWatch noted disruptions and delays in key economic reports stemming from the historic shutdown. A thinner data backdrop can increase uncertainty around the policy path and earnings expectations.
- Liquidity and options flows: MarketWatch’s December 10 focus underscores how concentrated event risk can interact with structured flows, potentially producing outsized volatility.
- Crypto spillovers: Persistent crypto selling pressure, as covered by CNBC and MarketWatch, could tighten overall risk appetite at the margin if cross-asset correlations rise.
Bottom line
The market opened in a “wait-and-see” posture: modest equity weakness led by tech, a small bid in duration, energy and oil a shade higher, and gold easing. With inflation expectations anchored near the low-2s and policy tools in focus, the immediate cross-asset message is consolidation rather than trend change. The near-term path is likely to hinge on megacap earnings and December’s event calendar. Watch how breadth behaves on rallies, whether TLT can sustain a bid with the 10-year around 4.11% (latest available), and whether crypto weakness continues to map onto broader risk sentiment. For now, the default setting is selective risk-taking and an emphasis on balance sheet quality and cash flow resilience as the market navigates a dense catalyst tape into year-end.
Opening overview
U.S. equities started the week on a cautious note. At the open, broad index ETFs were modestly lower versus Friday’s close, with leadership skewed away from large-cap growth. SPY last traded near 669.54, down about 0.36% from its prior close, while QQQ was around 606.13, off roughly 0.45%. The Dow proxy DIA dipped 0.23% to 470.73, and small caps via IWM fell about 0.49% to 236.31. Sector breadth leaned mixed-to-soft, with technology underperforming and energy modestly firmer.
This cautious tone comes as investors focus on a week rich with catalysts. MarketWatch flagged that investors are anxiously awaiting Nvidia’s earnings later this week after a choppy stretch for megacaps, a theme echoed across investor commentary. At the same time, options positioning and a dense macro calendar into December have traders focused on event risk and liquidity dynamics.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, expectations
The most recent Treasury benchmark readings (as of 2025-11-13) show a 2-year at 3.58%, 5-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.11%, and 30-year at 4.70%. The curve remains positively sloped from 2s to 10s, with a relatively elevated long end. That term structure helps contextualize this morning’s modest bid in duration: TLT was up about 0.25% versus Friday’s close, while IEF added approximately 0.11% and SHY was flat. The cautious equity tone alongside a slightly bid Treasury complex suggests incremental risk management into the week’s catalysts rather than a wholesale regime shift.
On inflation, the latest available CPI index level stands at 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542 (September reading). While these are index levels rather than rate changes, the inflation-expectations mix is more informative near term. Market-implied expectations were last around 2.36% for 5-year breakevens, 2.31% for 10-year, and 2.25% for the 5y5y forward; model-based expectations put 1-year at about 2.74%, 5-year at 2.32%, and 10-year at 2.29%. Taken together, the expectations complex remains clustered a touch above 2% over short-to-intermediate horizons, with longer tenors anchored near the low-2s. That anchoring is consistent with a “slow glide” disinflation narrative and offers a macro runway for multiples so long as realized inflation behaves.
Liquidity watch and policy context also matter. CNBC reported that the New York Fed recently met with dealers to discuss the standing repo facility—an important market backstop. Separately, Treasury yields recently firmed as markets welcomed the end of the government shutdown, according to CNBC reporting. While our live quotes reflect Friday’s benchmark levels rather than intraday moves today, the policy tone reinforces the focus on year-end funding conditions and event risks flagged by options traders into December 10.
Equities and sectors
- Broad indices: The opening tone is modestly risk-off. SPY (-0.36% vs prior close), QQQ (-0.45%), DIA (-0.23%), and IWM (-0.49%) all started in the red. The dispersion—tech-heavy QQQ lagging versus the more balanced DIA—points to a continued rotation away from megacap growth at the margins.
- Sectors: Early sector moves align with that rotation narrative. XLK, the technology sector ETF, opened softer at 285.27, about 1.00% below Friday’s 288.15. XLV, healthcare, was down roughly 0.45% to 151.15. XLF, financials, was essentially flat at 52.44. Energy was the standout early: XLE printed around 89.04, up approximately 0.32% versus Friday’s 88.76. The modest bid in energy dovetails with company-level commentary and commodity price action (see below).
The macro-news thread remains influential. MarketWatch highlighted that Morgan Stanley raised its S&P 500 target for next year, citing earnings growth and a more accommodative Fed as drivers of multiple support, while Bank of America’s strategist remains constructive on the so‑called “Santa Flaws” rally. At the same time, Fundstrat cautioned that breadth remains fragile and pointed to key support levels. Layer on top the focus on Nvidia’s upcoming report (as noted by MarketWatch) after a volatile stretch for AI-linked names and you get the push-pull evident in this morning’s mixed breadth.
Company and theme highlights from the newsflow
- Alphabet/AI: Alphabet featured prominently after reporting around Warren Buffett’s Berkshire taking a roughly $4.9 billion stake, and MarketWatch pointed to anticipation around Google’s Gemini 3.0 as the next AI catalyst. While we don’t have a direct GOOGL quote here, this is relevant for XLK sentiment: tech was weaker at the open despite supportive AI narratives, consistent with positioning/sentiment digestion rather than a fundamental shift in the secular story.
- Semiconductors/AI expectations: MarketWatch and CNBC emphasized the market’s preoccupation with Nvidia earnings and commented on concerns about an AI “mania” potentially unwinding. This helps explain QQQ/XLK underperformance and the cautious tone into key prints even as some strategists argue valuations remain justified.
- Aerospace and industrials: MarketWatch reported Boeing’s 777X booked 65 aircraft with Emirates; GE Aerospace received engine orders for those jets. While we don’t have industrial sector quotes in today’s feed, the thematic backdrop remains supportive for long-cycle demand when financing conditions are stable.
- Energy majors and supply: MarketWatch noted Chevron and Exxon plan to keep boosting oil production even as crude prices have softened recently. That strategic posture pairs with today’s small uptick in XLE and a firm USO print at the open.
- Healthcare/GLP-1 pricing: CNBC reported that Novo Nordisk reduced direct-to-consumer pricing for Wegovy and Ozempic to $349/month. XLV was softer at the open; pricing headlines can pressure managed care and weight‑loss ecosystems while also influencing volume dynamics.
- Media and distribution: CNBC confirmed that Google and Disney reached a deal to restore ESPN, ABC and other channels to YouTube TV after a two-week blackout. This eases a discrete overhang for subscribers and advertisers and reinforces streaming’s bargaining power, as MarketWatch also noted.
- Policy/trade: CNBC highlighted tariff cuts on staples like coffee and bananas aimed at lowering consumer prices. While our sector tape lacks consumer-staples quotes, such measures are directionally disinflationary at the margin for specific categories.
Bonds
Treasuries caught a small bid to start the week. TLT was up around 0.25% versus Friday’s 88.87, and IEF added about 0.11%, while SHY was flat. With the most recent 10-year yield at 4.11% and 30-year at 4.70%, duration remains sensitive to incremental inflation and growth surprises. The mix of anchored longer-term inflation expectations with residual event risk argues for range-bound yields near term, absent a shock in the backlog of delayed data or a material growth surprise.
Commodities
- Crude oil: USO ticked up to 71.60 from 71.38 (+0.31%) at the open, with energy equities slightly bid. MarketWatch’s piece on major producers maintaining output growth underscores confidence in longer-cycle returns and cost discipline. Another MarketWatch article highlighted potential geopolitical risk if U.S. military action were to target Venezuela—home to the world’s largest oil reserves—creating upside risk to spreads and domestic fuel supply in a tail scenario.
- Precious metals: Despite safe-haven narratives and MarketWatch noting persistent drivers for gold, GLD eased 0.51% to 374.03 this morning. SLV slipped 0.33% to 45.81. Cross-asset correlation chatter also re-emerged after MarketWatch observed that gold’s recent moves at times tracked equities and bitcoin, a pattern that, if it persists, can reduce portfolio diversification benefits.
- Natural gas and broad commodities: UNG dipped 0.41% to 14.50. The diversified commodities ETF DBC’s most recent consolidated print remained at 22.97, matching Friday’s close, with no fresh open tick visible at the time of writing.
FX and crypto
- FX: EURUSD marked around 1.1594, modestly softer versus its reported open of 1.1626. A slightly firmer dollar tone into event risk is consistent with the cautious equity open.
- Crypto: The crypto complex stayed on the back foot. Bitcoin’s mark price was about 94,052, roughly 1% below its reported open, with an intraday low near 93,447 and high near 95,968. Ether marked around 3,116, about 2.1% below its open, with a low near 3,091. This aligns with weekend and Friday coverage: CNBC noted bitcoin fell below $95,000 as a four-day rout accelerated, and MarketWatch highlighted that long-term holders and “whales” have been distributing—largely framed as profit‑taking—while liquidity absorption has weakened. MarketWatch also chronicled how bitcoin has historically behaved in bear phases, underscoring the path dependence and the tendency for sharp countertrend rallies even within broader drawdowns.
Putting it together
The opening tape shows a defensive bias within equities—tech lagging, energy and long duration a touch firmer—set against relatively anchored inflation expectations and a policy backdrop focused on liquidity tools and year-end event risk. The narrative is less about a single shock and more about digestion: positioning after a long rally, elevated sensitivity to megacap earnings, and the mechanical impact of options and year-end funding.
What to watch next
- Megacap earnings: MarketWatch emphasized that investors are anxiously awaiting Nvidia’s report. Given XLK’s early underperformance, the setup implies asymmetry around AI leadership and market breadth.
- December 10 event risk: MarketWatch flagged options traders’ focus on December 10 as a pivotal date with a “double helping” of risk. Expect gamma and vanna dynamics to influence intraday volatility as we approach that window.
- Bond market tone and the repo backstop: CNBC reporting on the New York Fed’s outreach about the standing repo facility highlights the focus on year-end funding conditions. Watch TLT/IEF behavior alongside front-end funding prints for signals of stress—or the lack thereof.
- Policy and commodities: MarketWatch warned that any U.S. strike on Venezuela could have oil-market ramifications. USO/XLE sensitivity would likely rise if that tail risk were to escalate.
Risks
- Breadth and support levels: Fundstrat warned about fragile breadth and key technical levels. Weakening breadth alongside elevated event risk can amplify drawdowns.
- AI positioning and insider selling: CNBC and MarketWatch commentary raised concerns that enthusiasm could be “unwinding.” If megacap leadership falters post-earnings, QQQ/XLK could extend underperformance.
- Data uncertainty: MarketWatch noted disruptions and delays in key economic reports stemming from the historic shutdown. A thinner data backdrop can increase uncertainty around the policy path and earnings expectations.
- Liquidity and options flows: MarketWatch’s December 10 focus underscores how concentrated event risk can interact with structured flows, potentially producing outsized volatility.
- Crypto spillovers: Persistent crypto selling pressure, as covered by CNBC and MarketWatch, could tighten overall risk appetite at the margin if cross-asset correlations rise.
Bottom line
The market opened in a “wait-and-see” posture: modest equity weakness led by tech, a small bid in duration, energy and oil a shade higher, and gold easing. With inflation expectations anchored near the low-2s and policy tools in focus, the immediate cross-asset message is consolidation rather than trend change. The near-term path is likely to hinge on megacap earnings and December’s event calendar. Watch how breadth behaves on rallies, whether TLT can sustain a bid with the 10-year around 4.11% (latest available), and whether crypto weakness continues to map onto broader risk sentiment. For now, the default setting is selective risk-taking and an emphasis on balance sheet quality and cash flow resilience as the market navigates a dense catalyst tape into year-end.