State of Market: Open 11/24/25
Stocks open firmer to start Thanksgiving week as tech leads and long-end Treasurys bid
QQQ outperforms at the bell, TLT edges higher alongside a 4.10% 10-year; gold steady, energy soft; crypto remains fragile
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Markets opened with a constructive tone Monday, extending Friday’s rebound into the first session of a shortened Thanksgiving week. Large-cap benchmarks and growth leadership are firm out of the gate, while long-duration Treasurys catch a bid and commodities are mixed. The opening backdrop is shaped by a still-elevated but stable inflation outlook, policy uncertainty stemming from delayed government data releases, and an earnings calendar that tilts toward U.S. retailers ahead of the crucial holiday shopping period.
Equities: a firm start with growth in front
- SPY last traded at 662.66 versus a previous close of 659.03, up roughly 0.55% at the bell. The broad market is positive, with early buying concentrated in mega-cap growth and tech.
- QQQ is the early leader at 595.45 versus 590.07, up about 0.91%. This aligns with multiple weekend narratives that near-term market direction remains sensitive to a handful of heavyweight platforms in AI and cloud.
- DIA prints 463.66 vs. 462.57, up about 0.24%, while IWM is modestly higher at 235.90 vs. 235.60, up roughly 0.13%. The small-cap lag versus mega-cap growth remains intact at the open, a dynamic to watch if bond yields keep easing.
Sector tone: tech outperforms; defensives and financials up modestly; energy lags
- XLK trades at 275.13 vs. 273.20, up about 0.71%, pacing the tape. That dovetails with headlines highlighting the market’s renewed focus on key AI bellwethers and platform efficiency as the broader “Magnificent Seven” narrative becomes more idiosyncratic. Separate commentary over the weekend also spotlighted Google’s continuing momentum in AI tooling.
- XLV at 155.14 vs. 154.61 is up about 0.34%, while XLF at 51.73 vs. 51.67 is slightly higher by about 0.11%.
- Energy is a touch firmer at the sector ETF level early (XLE 88.30 vs. 88.15, up about 0.17%), but underlying oil exposure is softer in futures-linked products (see commodities). The policy backdrop includes reports of planned U.S. offshore leasing expansion and sanction-related dislocations in Russian flows—crosscurrents that could inject headline volatility even as demand seasonality cools.
Macro: yields, inflation, and expectations
The Treasury curve remains well off its cycle highs with the 10-year at 4.10% (as of 11/20), the 2-year at 3.55%, the 5-year at 3.68%, and the 30-year at 4.73%. That profile—front end below 4% and the long end anchored below 5%—is directionally supportive for duration-sensitive equities and risk assets, provided growth data avoids a downside surprise. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials has fed market conversations about a potential additional rate cut into year-end, and several weekend pieces framed Friday’s rally as aided by that shift in tone. Gold’s resilience and Friday’s slide in yields captured in reporting are consistent with that interpretation, though the opening print today reflects a quieter start.
Inflation remains the fulcrum. The latest available CPI level (September) sits at 324.368 (headline) and 330.542 (core). High-frequency updates are temporarily disrupted: October CPI has been canceled and November’s report is pushed until after the December FOMC decision, raising uncertainty around the Fed’s near-term reaction function. Market-based inflation expectations are comparatively stable, with 5-year breakevens near 2.36% and 10-year near 2.31%; model-based measures put 1-year expectations around 2.74% and 5–10 years clustered near 2.25–2.32%. That mix points to a market that sees disinflation progressing, yet remains sensitive to growth surprises and policy communications in the absence of fresh official data.
Economic activity indicators are pointing to some reacceleration post-shutdown. Survey evidence noted over the weekend indicated the U.S. economy grew in November at the fastest pace in four months, with business optimism improving. For equities, that combination—firmer growth and easing yields—can be constructive if margins hold and if the consumer demonstrates resilience into the holidays.
Bonds: long duration bid into the open
Treasurys are steadier, and ETF proxies are reflecting incremental strength at the open:
- TLT last trades at 89.95 vs. 89.50, up about 0.50%.
- IEF is at 97.29 vs. 97.19, up around 0.10%.
- SHY is flat at 83.03, which is consistent with minimal front-end movement.
This price action lines up with a 10-year near 4.10% and ongoing debate about the likelihood and timing of additional policy easing. With CPI and jobs data delayed, term premium and auction dynamics may matter disproportionately in coming sessions; for now, equity-friendly duration is helping stabilize risk.
Commodities: gold steady, oil and gas softer
- GLD is marginally higher at 374.54 vs. 374.27, up about 0.07%, extending gold’s year-to-date outperformance referenced in recent coverage. Higher real-rate sensitivity remains a key lever; headlines about a potential December cut have helped frame support, though gold’s pace has cooled from prior peaks.
- SLV is up about 0.16% at 45.37 vs. 45.30.
- USO is down roughly 0.43% at 69.00 vs. 69.30. Reports of U.S. sanctions tightening around Russian barrels (with the risk of some volumes being stranded at sea) present upside tail risks for crude spreads, while policy proposals to expand U.S. offshore leasing point in the other direction. Near-term, mixed signals on demand and risk sentiment are keeping oil capped.
- UNG is notably weaker, down about 2.33% at 14.31 vs. 14.65, consistent with shoulder-season dynamics and ample domestic supply.
- DBC last traded 22.53 on Friday and is unchanged from that close as of the opening prints, reflecting the net of slightly softer energy and steadier precious metals.
FX and crypto: dollar-euro steady; crypto still on shaky footing
EURUSD is marked around 1.1530 early, with no comparable prior level in the dataset to quantify the change. The pair’s tone will likely track relative rate expectations and growth differentials as the week unfolds.
Crypto remains fragile after a sequence of steep declines in November.
- BTCUSD marks near 85,993, versus an open of 86,698—down about 0.81% intraday—with a session range so far between roughly 85,601 and 87,826. Recent commentary has emphasized both fading risk appetite and market-structure strains facing liquidity providers during volatility spikes.
- ETHUSD is near 2,802, versus an open of 2,824—down about 0.76%—with a range between roughly 2,786 and 2,885.
Multiple pieces over the weekend highlighted the psychological dimension of crypto sentiment as well as the timing mismatch for leveraged ETF product launches into a weak tape. For broader markets, crypto drawdowns often echo tighter financial conditions and risk-parity unwinds; today’s mixed commodity and pro-duration bond tone may be helping insulate equities from spillovers at the open.
Company and thematic developments from the last 24 hours
- Retail leadership and the holiday test: Reporting highlights a pivotal week for retail earnings—Burlington, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Dell are in focus—amid continued scrutiny of lower-income consumer health and traffic. Market-watchers noted U.S. stock futures were bid heading into the week, but the sustainability of any bounce will hinge on holiday sales quality and discounting.
- Executive change at Kohl’s: Kohl’s named Michael Bender as permanent CEO following a turbulent period and sales declines. The market will look for updates on inventory discipline, off-mall productivity, and loyalty engagement as the chain navigates heavy promotional intensity.
- Pharma divergences: Eli Lilly recently crossed—and then hovered around—the $1 trillion market cap milestone, underscoring market enthusiasm for GLP-1 franchises. Conversely, Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 failed to deliver hoped-for Alzheimer’s results, and its stock tumbled. Bayer reported success in a late-stage trial for a secondary stroke treatment, with shares jumping. The sector’s dispersion reinforces why many investors are opting for baskets (XLV) while selectively underwriting single-name trial risk.
- AI and big tech narratives: Several pieces questioned whether the “Magnificent Seven” era is fragmenting, with Citi and others urging focus on Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple as the critical trio for earnings leadership. Other reporting highlighted Google’s momentum in AI tools and even regulatory/logistics frictions around restricted chip flows. Tesla’s development pipeline for next-generation AI chips remains a watchpoint, but execution timelines and capital intensity remain under scrutiny.
- Energy policy and geopolitics: Coverage over the past 48 hours detailed U.S. plans to expand offshore drilling alongside risks of sanction-induced disruptions to Russian crude logistics. The immediate price impact is muted at the open, but these levers could amplify volatility as liquidity thins into the holiday.
- Macro-policy visibility: Commentary emphasized that, due to data delays, the Fed will lack fresh CPI and jobs prints before its next meeting. Markets are therefore leaning more on surveys, inflation expectations, and Fed speak. Gold’s steadiness and Friday’s Treasury rally were tied by some observers to guidance from New York Fed President John Williams.
What it means for positioning at the open
Today’s setup features a familiar mix: risk assets buoyed by easier duration and stable inflation expectations, but with leadership still narrow and sensitive to AI and mega-cap earnings narratives. If yields continue to drift lower, breadth could improve—yet crypto’s weakness and oil’s indecision serve as reminders that liquidity and cross-asset sentiment are fragile. Retail earnings and any early reads on Black Friday promotions become pivotal catalysts for factor rotation (value/size) over the next two weeks. For now, tech strength (XLK) and a small gain in health care (XLV) are offsetting softer energy-linked instruments.
Near-term watch list
- Retail earnings cadence (Burlington, Best Buy, Kohl’s, Dell) and management commentary on inventory, promotions, and consumer credit.
- Fed communication ahead of December, with markets inferring the policy path absent fresh CPI and jobs.
- Treasury auctions and term premium: with the 10-year around 4.10%, demand dynamics may steer both bond proxies (TLT/IEF) and equity multiples.
- Oil flow headlines (sanctions, policy shifts) versus softening demand signals—key for USO and XLE tone.
- AI spending discipline and financing: reports flagged record debt issuance by mega-cap platforms to fund capex, keeping bubble-risk conversations alive.
- Crypto sentiment inflections, particularly around product launches and liquidity provider capacity; maintaining separation from broader risk assets would be a constructive sign for equities.
Bottom line
A constructive equity open, mild sector breadth, firmer duration, and stable inflation expectations set a cautiously risk-on tone. The absence of fresh macro data before the December Fed meeting elevates the importance of company-level guidance this week—especially from retailers—and keeps the market sensitive to policy headlines and cross-asset signals. Until breadth improves and small caps confirm, leadership remains concentrated in quality growth and AI-linked cash generators, even as investors keep one eye on funding markets and the other on holiday sales quality.
Markets opened with a constructive tone Monday, extending Friday’s rebound into the first session of a shortened Thanksgiving week. Large-cap benchmarks and growth leadership are firm out of the gate, while long-duration Treasurys catch a bid and commodities are mixed. The opening backdrop is shaped by a still-elevated but stable inflation outlook, policy uncertainty stemming from delayed government data releases, and an earnings calendar that tilts toward U.S. retailers ahead of the crucial holiday shopping period.
Equities: a firm start with growth in front
- SPY last traded at 662.66 versus a previous close of 659.03, up roughly 0.55% at the bell. The broad market is positive, with early buying concentrated in mega-cap growth and tech.
- QQQ is the early leader at 595.45 versus 590.07, up about 0.91%. This aligns with multiple weekend narratives that near-term market direction remains sensitive to a handful of heavyweight platforms in AI and cloud.
- DIA prints 463.66 vs. 462.57, up about 0.24%, while IWM is modestly higher at 235.90 vs. 235.60, up roughly 0.13%. The small-cap lag versus mega-cap growth remains intact at the open, a dynamic to watch if bond yields keep easing.
Sector tone: tech outperforms; defensives and financials up modestly; energy lags
- XLK trades at 275.13 vs. 273.20, up about 0.71%, pacing the tape. That dovetails with headlines highlighting the market’s renewed focus on key AI bellwethers and platform efficiency as the broader “Magnificent Seven” narrative becomes more idiosyncratic. Separate commentary over the weekend also spotlighted Google’s continuing momentum in AI tooling.
- XLV at 155.14 vs. 154.61 is up about 0.34%, while XLF at 51.73 vs. 51.67 is slightly higher by about 0.11%.
- Energy is a touch firmer at the sector ETF level early (XLE 88.30 vs. 88.15, up about 0.17%), but underlying oil exposure is softer in futures-linked products (see commodities). The policy backdrop includes reports of planned U.S. offshore leasing expansion and sanction-related dislocations in Russian flows—crosscurrents that could inject headline volatility even as demand seasonality cools.
Macro: yields, inflation, and expectations
The Treasury curve remains well off its cycle highs with the 10-year at 4.10% (as of 11/20), the 2-year at 3.55%, the 5-year at 3.68%, and the 30-year at 4.73%. That profile—front end below 4% and the long end anchored below 5%—is directionally supportive for duration-sensitive equities and risk assets, provided growth data avoids a downside surprise. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials has fed market conversations about a potential additional rate cut into year-end, and several weekend pieces framed Friday’s rally as aided by that shift in tone. Gold’s resilience and Friday’s slide in yields captured in reporting are consistent with that interpretation, though the opening print today reflects a quieter start.
Inflation remains the fulcrum. The latest available CPI level (September) sits at 324.368 (headline) and 330.542 (core). High-frequency updates are temporarily disrupted: October CPI has been canceled and November’s report is pushed until after the December FOMC decision, raising uncertainty around the Fed’s near-term reaction function. Market-based inflation expectations are comparatively stable, with 5-year breakevens near 2.36% and 10-year near 2.31%; model-based measures put 1-year expectations around 2.74% and 5–10 years clustered near 2.25–2.32%. That mix points to a market that sees disinflation progressing, yet remains sensitive to growth surprises and policy communications in the absence of fresh official data.
Economic activity indicators are pointing to some reacceleration post-shutdown. Survey evidence noted over the weekend indicated the U.S. economy grew in November at the fastest pace in four months, with business optimism improving. For equities, that combination—firmer growth and easing yields—can be constructive if margins hold and if the consumer demonstrates resilience into the holidays.
Bonds: long duration bid into the open
Treasurys are steadier, and ETF proxies are reflecting incremental strength at the open:
- TLT last trades at 89.95 vs. 89.50, up about 0.50%.
- IEF is at 97.29 vs. 97.19, up around 0.10%.
- SHY is flat at 83.03, which is consistent with minimal front-end movement.
This price action lines up with a 10-year near 4.10% and ongoing debate about the likelihood and timing of additional policy easing. With CPI and jobs data delayed, term premium and auction dynamics may matter disproportionately in coming sessions; for now, equity-friendly duration is helping stabilize risk.
Commodities: gold steady, oil and gas softer
- GLD is marginally higher at 374.54 vs. 374.27, up about 0.07%, extending gold’s year-to-date outperformance referenced in recent coverage. Higher real-rate sensitivity remains a key lever; headlines about a potential December cut have helped frame support, though gold’s pace has cooled from prior peaks.
- SLV is up about 0.16% at 45.37 vs. 45.30.
- USO is down roughly 0.43% at 69.00 vs. 69.30. Reports of U.S. sanctions tightening around Russian barrels (with the risk of some volumes being stranded at sea) present upside tail risks for crude spreads, while policy proposals to expand U.S. offshore leasing point in the other direction. Near-term, mixed signals on demand and risk sentiment are keeping oil capped.
- UNG is notably weaker, down about 2.33% at 14.31 vs. 14.65, consistent with shoulder-season dynamics and ample domestic supply.
- DBC last traded 22.53 on Friday and is unchanged from that close as of the opening prints, reflecting the net of slightly softer energy and steadier precious metals.
FX and crypto: dollar-euro steady; crypto still on shaky footing
EURUSD is marked around 1.1530 early, with no comparable prior level in the dataset to quantify the change. The pair’s tone will likely track relative rate expectations and growth differentials as the week unfolds.
Crypto remains fragile after a sequence of steep declines in November.
- BTCUSD marks near 85,993, versus an open of 86,698—down about 0.81% intraday—with a session range so far between roughly 85,601 and 87,826. Recent commentary has emphasized both fading risk appetite and market-structure strains facing liquidity providers during volatility spikes.
- ETHUSD is near 2,802, versus an open of 2,824—down about 0.76%—with a range between roughly 2,786 and 2,885.
Multiple pieces over the weekend highlighted the psychological dimension of crypto sentiment as well as the timing mismatch for leveraged ETF product launches into a weak tape. For broader markets, crypto drawdowns often echo tighter financial conditions and risk-parity unwinds; today’s mixed commodity and pro-duration bond tone may be helping insulate equities from spillovers at the open.
Company and thematic developments from the last 24 hours
- Retail leadership and the holiday test: Reporting highlights a pivotal week for retail earnings—Burlington, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Dell are in focus—amid continued scrutiny of lower-income consumer health and traffic. Market-watchers noted U.S. stock futures were bid heading into the week, but the sustainability of any bounce will hinge on holiday sales quality and discounting.
- Executive change at Kohl’s: Kohl’s named Michael Bender as permanent CEO following a turbulent period and sales declines. The market will look for updates on inventory discipline, off-mall productivity, and loyalty engagement as the chain navigates heavy promotional intensity.
- Pharma divergences: Eli Lilly recently crossed—and then hovered around—the $1 trillion market cap milestone, underscoring market enthusiasm for GLP-1 franchises. Conversely, Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 failed to deliver hoped-for Alzheimer’s results, and its stock tumbled. Bayer reported success in a late-stage trial for a secondary stroke treatment, with shares jumping. The sector’s dispersion reinforces why many investors are opting for baskets (XLV) while selectively underwriting single-name trial risk.
- AI and big tech narratives: Several pieces questioned whether the “Magnificent Seven” era is fragmenting, with Citi and others urging focus on Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple as the critical trio for earnings leadership. Other reporting highlighted Google’s momentum in AI tools and even regulatory/logistics frictions around restricted chip flows. Tesla’s development pipeline for next-generation AI chips remains a watchpoint, but execution timelines and capital intensity remain under scrutiny.
- Energy policy and geopolitics: Coverage over the past 48 hours detailed U.S. plans to expand offshore drilling alongside risks of sanction-induced disruptions to Russian crude logistics. The immediate price impact is muted at the open, but these levers could amplify volatility as liquidity thins into the holiday.
- Macro-policy visibility: Commentary emphasized that, due to data delays, the Fed will lack fresh CPI and jobs prints before its next meeting. Markets are therefore leaning more on surveys, inflation expectations, and Fed speak. Gold’s steadiness and Friday’s Treasury rally were tied by some observers to guidance from New York Fed President John Williams.
What it means for positioning at the open
Today’s setup features a familiar mix: risk assets buoyed by easier duration and stable inflation expectations, but with leadership still narrow and sensitive to AI and mega-cap earnings narratives. If yields continue to drift lower, breadth could improve—yet crypto’s weakness and oil’s indecision serve as reminders that liquidity and cross-asset sentiment are fragile. Retail earnings and any early reads on Black Friday promotions become pivotal catalysts for factor rotation (value/size) over the next two weeks. For now, tech strength (XLK) and a small gain in health care (XLV) are offsetting softer energy-linked instruments.
Near-term watch list
- Retail earnings cadence (Burlington, Best Buy, Kohl’s, Dell) and management commentary on inventory, promotions, and consumer credit.
- Fed communication ahead of December, with markets inferring the policy path absent fresh CPI and jobs.
- Treasury auctions and term premium: with the 10-year around 4.10%, demand dynamics may steer both bond proxies (TLT/IEF) and equity multiples.
- Oil flow headlines (sanctions, policy shifts) versus softening demand signals—key for USO and XLE tone.
- AI spending discipline and financing: reports flagged record debt issuance by mega-cap platforms to fund capex, keeping bubble-risk conversations alive.
- Crypto sentiment inflections, particularly around product launches and liquidity provider capacity; maintaining separation from broader risk assets would be a constructive sign for equities.
Bottom line
A constructive equity open, mild sector breadth, firmer duration, and stable inflation expectations set a cautiously risk-on tone. The absence of fresh macro data before the December Fed meeting elevates the importance of company-level guidance this week—especially from retailers—and keeps the market sensitive to policy headlines and cross-asset signals. Until breadth improves and small caps confirm, leadership remains concentrated in quality growth and AI-linked cash generators, even as investors keep one eye on funding markets and the other on holiday sales quality.