State of Market: Open 11/28/25
Stocks open firmer on Black Friday as long-end yields steady; gold and crypto extend gains
Early trade skews risk-on with SPY, QQQ, and IWM up while TLT softens; metals rally, oil bounces, and CME’s earlier futures halt puts a spotlight on holiday liquidity.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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U.S. equities opened modestly higher in a holiday-shortened Black Friday session, with major index ETFs advancing against Wednesday’s closes and cyclical leadership showing up in Financials and Energy. The early tone is risk-on, supported by a Treasury curve that remains anchored with the 10-year near 4% and the 30-year below 4.7% based on the latest available levels. Commodities are firmer: gold and silver extend recent strength, oil and natural gas are bouncing, and crypto remains well-bid following Bitcoin’s move back above $90,000 highlighted in recent coverage.
Liquidity and market plumbing are in focus after CME Group temporarily halted futures trading earlier this morning due to a data center cooling issue, according to reporting. While cash equities are trading normally, participants are mindful that Black Friday sessions tend to be thinner, which can amplify moves in either direction.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
- Treasury yields (as of Nov. 25) point to a curve that is relatively well-behaved at the front and firmer out the curve: 2-year at 3.43%, 5-year at 3.55%, 10-year at 4.01%, and 30-year at 4.67%. Compared with levels seen earlier in the fall, the configuration indicates a re-steepening of the long end relative to the front, which can relieve pressure on duration-sensitive equities while still rewarding quality carry.
- Headline CPI (September) stands at 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542 (index levels). Without a comparable prior print in this dataset we won’t extrapolate month-over-month or year-over-year changes, but the inflation expectations suite suggests a market- and model-anchored path: 5-year market expectations at 2.36%, 10-year at 2.31%, and 5y5y forward at 2.25%. Model-based 1-year expectations at 2.74% sit higher than longer tenors, consistent with a still-elevated near-term inflation perception that fades toward the Fed’s longer-run goal over time.
- The Fed policy debate remains data-dependent. Recent coverage described an economy that “muddled along” and markets that are attuned to job openings, wages, and labor perceptions into December. For now, the combination of tempered long-end yields and contained medium-term inflation expectations offers a constructive backdrop for risk assets, especially if growth stabilizes.
Equities: steady bid at the open
- SPY last traded at 681.09 versus a previous close of 679.68, up roughly 0.21% in the opening minutes.
- QQQ last at 616.00 versus 614.27, up about 0.28%.
- DIA last at 475.38 versus 474.35, up about 0.22%.
- IWM last at 248.07 versus 247.30, up about 0.31%.
Breadth at the sector level tilts constructive, with Financials and Technology opening in the green and Healthcare modestly softer. Seasonality is also front-of-mind: recent reporting noted that the period beginning around Black Friday often ushers in a stretch of gains into year-end. While seasonals are no guarantee, the setup can matter at the margin in lighter liquidity conditions.
Sectors: tech leadership, financials firm, energy bounces
- XLK (Technology) trades around 284.51 versus 283.78 prior close, higher at the open. Under the surface, investor attention is fixed on the competitive dynamics around AI infrastructure. Articles this week highlighted Alphabet’s momentum in custom AI microchips (TPUs) and noted that Alphabet shares have become technically extended. Related pieces discussed Nvidia’s selloff on Google fears and AMD’s weak November. The broad takeaway: enthusiasm is still present for AI demand, but positioning is more discerning across the supply chain.
- XLF (Financials) at 53.10 versus 52.95 prior, also higher. The combination of a 10-year near 4% and a still-firm long end supports net interest margins without overly stressing credit perceptions, a mix that often benefits diversified financials. That said, bank-specific drivers (capital, reserves, fee income) will matter more as we approach the next earnings window.
- XLE (Energy) at 90.18 versus 89.99 is modestly higher, aided by a bounce in oil proxies at the open. Coverage this morning emphasized that oil remains on track for its largest yearly decline since the pandemic, even as some see potential for a short-term bottom as lower prices lift demand and temper production. The early move in USO suggests traders are tactically leaning into that stabilization view.
- XLV (Healthcare) is fractionally lower at 158.17 versus 158.42 prior. Policy and pricing headlines continue to be a swing factor in the space, and recent reporting on Medicare-related drug price dynamics contributes to the mixed tone.
Bonds: long duration softens, front-end steady
- TLT at 90.46 versus 90.64 prior is slightly lower at the open, consistent with a modestly firmer long-end yield tone embedded in the latest Treasury curve snapshot.
- IEF at 97.63 versus 97.67 is marginally lower as well, echoing the 10-year’s anchoring near 4%.
- SHY at 83.10 versus 83.08 is essentially flat-to-up, signaling little change at the front end.
The balance here mirrors the expectations data: the market is not pricing a disorderly inflation resurgence, but it is also not racing to discount aggressive near-term policy easing. In that context, small equities gains alongside slight pressure on long-duration bonds is a coherent opening print.
Commodities: metals lead; oil and gas firmer
- GLD at 385.96 versus 383.12 prior is up about 0.7% at the open, extending the metal’s recent resilience. A sell-side forecast captured in recent reporting argued for a multi-year upside scenario for gold prices; without endorsing any target, the current mix of steady real yields and macro uncertainty continues to underpin investor demand for precious metals.
- SLV at 49.68 versus 48.40 prior is up roughly 2.6%, outpacing gold in early trade. Silver’s higher beta to metals cycles can produce outsized moves on days when gold has a firm bid.
- USO at 70.50 versus 70.04 prior is up about 0.7%, while UNG at 14.63 versus 14.25 is up around 2.7%. Oil’s bounce dovetails with commentary that, notwithstanding a challenging year-to-date path, depressed prices can seed a demand response. Natural gas continues to trade its own weather- and storage-influenced dynamics.
- DBC last traded at 22.76 on Wednesday’s close and shows little change indicated in the early minutes, with a wide set of commodities offsetting one another for now.
FX and crypto: euro steady; Bitcoin holds above $90k, Ethereum climbs
- EURUSD marks near 1.1565 around the open, modestly below its indicated open print; with no broader dollar index provided, we’ll refrain from extrapolating more than noting a generally stable euro into the U.S. cash session.
- BTCUSD marks around 92,921, with a reported day range of roughly 90,858 to 93,026 and an open near 91,439. Recent coverage emphasized Bitcoin’s move back above $90,000 and argued a path back toward $100,000 may not be far. Today’s tone is consistent with that bullish framing, though crypto remains a high-volatility asset class.
- ETHUSD marks near 3,092, with a session range of about 3,000 to 3,096 and an open near 3,017, also firmer to start the day.
Notable company and thematic developments from recent articles
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Pieces highlighted Alphabet nearing a $4 trillion market value on AI chip potential and flagged that the stock screened “most overbought ever” by one technical measure. Another article outlined beneficiaries if Google’s TPU ecosystem gains broader adoption. The net message is that AI platform competition is intensifying—and while enthusiasm is justified by growth, positioning risk can rise when technicals get stretched.
- Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD): Articles described NVDA weakness tied to Google fears and framed AMD’s worst month in three years on concerns spanning rates, memory prices, and AI share dynamics. The narrative has shifted from “buy all AI” to “pick your spots,” with investors differentiating across hardware, accelerators, and memory supply chains.
- Dell (DELL): Reporting noted a constructive AI server outlook with an upbeat forecast and a broadened customer mix (neocloud, sovereign, enterprise). That underscores the notion that AI infrastructure demand extends beyond the hyperscalers.
- Workday (WDAY): Coverage indicated shares fell on subscription revenue guidance concerns; software is facing a market that’s rewarding durable growth and clear operating leverage while punishing even modest guide-downs.
- CME Group (CME): MarketWatch reported an early futures trading halt due to a data center cooling issue, a reminder that operational risks can intersect with market liquidity, especially on lighter-volume days like today.
- Energy complex: MarketWatch highlighted that oil is tracking its largest yearly drop since the pandemic but may be near a short-term bottom as lower prices spur demand and curb supply. Early strength in USO aligns with that thesis.
- Bitcoin and gold: MarketWatch reported Bitcoin’s reclaiming of the $90,000 level and Deutsche Bank’s multi-year bullish gold scenario. Today’s gains in BTC and GLD/SLV line up with those narratives, though both asset classes can experience swift reversals.
Market structure and seasonality
Seasonality around Black Friday into year-end is historically constructive, as noted in recent coverage, but it is not monolithic and often interacts with prevailing macro trends. Today’s backdrop—contained medium-term inflation expectations, long-end yields near 4%–4.7%, and tech leadership tempered by rotation within AI beneficiaries—suggests a market that may grind higher while rewarding selectivity.
Outlook
With the Thanksgiving holiday reducing participation, we’ll be watching whether early gains can hold into the shortened close. More broadly, incoming labor and inflation data ahead of the December Fed meeting will set the tone for rates and risk assets. Within equities, the AI narrative is likely to remain center stage, but investors are increasingly differentiating among chip designers, custom silicon adopters, server OEMs, and software platforms. In commodities, attention turns to whether crude can base into year-end and whether the metals bid persists alongside stable real yields. In crypto, the key question is whether momentum above $90,000 can broaden without triggering sharp mean-reversion.
Risks
Key near-term risks include: thinner liquidity exacerbating price swings; operational issues (like the CME incident) affecting price discovery; a hawkish surprise from the Fed if labor data tightens; or conversely, a growth scare that pressures cyclicals and earnings expectations. For AI-linked equities, competitive dynamics and buyer concentration pose idiosyncratic risks. In commodities and crypto, volatility is an ever-present factor; position sizing and risk controls are essential.
U.S. equities opened modestly higher in a holiday-shortened Black Friday session, with major index ETFs advancing against Wednesday’s closes and cyclical leadership showing up in Financials and Energy. The early tone is risk-on, supported by a Treasury curve that remains anchored with the 10-year near 4% and the 30-year below 4.7% based on the latest available levels. Commodities are firmer: gold and silver extend recent strength, oil and natural gas are bouncing, and crypto remains well-bid following Bitcoin’s move back above $90,000 highlighted in recent coverage.
Liquidity and market plumbing are in focus after CME Group temporarily halted futures trading earlier this morning due to a data center cooling issue, according to reporting. While cash equities are trading normally, participants are mindful that Black Friday sessions tend to be thinner, which can amplify moves in either direction.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
- Treasury yields (as of Nov. 25) point to a curve that is relatively well-behaved at the front and firmer out the curve: 2-year at 3.43%, 5-year at 3.55%, 10-year at 4.01%, and 30-year at 4.67%. Compared with levels seen earlier in the fall, the configuration indicates a re-steepening of the long end relative to the front, which can relieve pressure on duration-sensitive equities while still rewarding quality carry.
- Headline CPI (September) stands at 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542 (index levels). Without a comparable prior print in this dataset we won’t extrapolate month-over-month or year-over-year changes, but the inflation expectations suite suggests a market- and model-anchored path: 5-year market expectations at 2.36%, 10-year at 2.31%, and 5y5y forward at 2.25%. Model-based 1-year expectations at 2.74% sit higher than longer tenors, consistent with a still-elevated near-term inflation perception that fades toward the Fed’s longer-run goal over time.
- The Fed policy debate remains data-dependent. Recent coverage described an economy that “muddled along” and markets that are attuned to job openings, wages, and labor perceptions into December. For now, the combination of tempered long-end yields and contained medium-term inflation expectations offers a constructive backdrop for risk assets, especially if growth stabilizes.
Equities: steady bid at the open
- SPY last traded at 681.09 versus a previous close of 679.68, up roughly 0.21% in the opening minutes.
- QQQ last at 616.00 versus 614.27, up about 0.28%.
- DIA last at 475.38 versus 474.35, up about 0.22%.
- IWM last at 248.07 versus 247.30, up about 0.31%.
Breadth at the sector level tilts constructive, with Financials and Technology opening in the green and Healthcare modestly softer. Seasonality is also front-of-mind: recent reporting noted that the period beginning around Black Friday often ushers in a stretch of gains into year-end. While seasonals are no guarantee, the setup can matter at the margin in lighter liquidity conditions.
Sectors: tech leadership, financials firm, energy bounces
- XLK (Technology) trades around 284.51 versus 283.78 prior close, higher at the open. Under the surface, investor attention is fixed on the competitive dynamics around AI infrastructure. Articles this week highlighted Alphabet’s momentum in custom AI microchips (TPUs) and noted that Alphabet shares have become technically extended. Related pieces discussed Nvidia’s selloff on Google fears and AMD’s weak November. The broad takeaway: enthusiasm is still present for AI demand, but positioning is more discerning across the supply chain.
- XLF (Financials) at 53.10 versus 52.95 prior, also higher. The combination of a 10-year near 4% and a still-firm long end supports net interest margins without overly stressing credit perceptions, a mix that often benefits diversified financials. That said, bank-specific drivers (capital, reserves, fee income) will matter more as we approach the next earnings window.
- XLE (Energy) at 90.18 versus 89.99 is modestly higher, aided by a bounce in oil proxies at the open. Coverage this morning emphasized that oil remains on track for its largest yearly decline since the pandemic, even as some see potential for a short-term bottom as lower prices lift demand and temper production. The early move in USO suggests traders are tactically leaning into that stabilization view.
- XLV (Healthcare) is fractionally lower at 158.17 versus 158.42 prior. Policy and pricing headlines continue to be a swing factor in the space, and recent reporting on Medicare-related drug price dynamics contributes to the mixed tone.
Bonds: long duration softens, front-end steady
- TLT at 90.46 versus 90.64 prior is slightly lower at the open, consistent with a modestly firmer long-end yield tone embedded in the latest Treasury curve snapshot.
- IEF at 97.63 versus 97.67 is marginally lower as well, echoing the 10-year’s anchoring near 4%.
- SHY at 83.10 versus 83.08 is essentially flat-to-up, signaling little change at the front end.
The balance here mirrors the expectations data: the market is not pricing a disorderly inflation resurgence, but it is also not racing to discount aggressive near-term policy easing. In that context, small equities gains alongside slight pressure on long-duration bonds is a coherent opening print.
Commodities: metals lead; oil and gas firmer
- GLD at 385.96 versus 383.12 prior is up about 0.7% at the open, extending the metal’s recent resilience. A sell-side forecast captured in recent reporting argued for a multi-year upside scenario for gold prices; without endorsing any target, the current mix of steady real yields and macro uncertainty continues to underpin investor demand for precious metals.
- SLV at 49.68 versus 48.40 prior is up roughly 2.6%, outpacing gold in early trade. Silver’s higher beta to metals cycles can produce outsized moves on days when gold has a firm bid.
- USO at 70.50 versus 70.04 prior is up about 0.7%, while UNG at 14.63 versus 14.25 is up around 2.7%. Oil’s bounce dovetails with commentary that, notwithstanding a challenging year-to-date path, depressed prices can seed a demand response. Natural gas continues to trade its own weather- and storage-influenced dynamics.
- DBC last traded at 22.76 on Wednesday’s close and shows little change indicated in the early minutes, with a wide set of commodities offsetting one another for now.
FX and crypto: euro steady; Bitcoin holds above $90k, Ethereum climbs
- EURUSD marks near 1.1565 around the open, modestly below its indicated open print; with no broader dollar index provided, we’ll refrain from extrapolating more than noting a generally stable euro into the U.S. cash session.
- BTCUSD marks around 92,921, with a reported day range of roughly 90,858 to 93,026 and an open near 91,439. Recent coverage emphasized Bitcoin’s move back above $90,000 and argued a path back toward $100,000 may not be far. Today’s tone is consistent with that bullish framing, though crypto remains a high-volatility asset class.
- ETHUSD marks near 3,092, with a session range of about 3,000 to 3,096 and an open near 3,017, also firmer to start the day.
Notable company and thematic developments from recent articles
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Pieces highlighted Alphabet nearing a $4 trillion market value on AI chip potential and flagged that the stock screened “most overbought ever” by one technical measure. Another article outlined beneficiaries if Google’s TPU ecosystem gains broader adoption. The net message is that AI platform competition is intensifying—and while enthusiasm is justified by growth, positioning risk can rise when technicals get stretched.
- Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD): Articles described NVDA weakness tied to Google fears and framed AMD’s worst month in three years on concerns spanning rates, memory prices, and AI share dynamics. The narrative has shifted from “buy all AI” to “pick your spots,” with investors differentiating across hardware, accelerators, and memory supply chains.
- Dell (DELL): Reporting noted a constructive AI server outlook with an upbeat forecast and a broadened customer mix (neocloud, sovereign, enterprise). That underscores the notion that AI infrastructure demand extends beyond the hyperscalers.
- Workday (WDAY): Coverage indicated shares fell on subscription revenue guidance concerns; software is facing a market that’s rewarding durable growth and clear operating leverage while punishing even modest guide-downs.
- CME Group (CME): MarketWatch reported an early futures trading halt due to a data center cooling issue, a reminder that operational risks can intersect with market liquidity, especially on lighter-volume days like today.
- Energy complex: MarketWatch highlighted that oil is tracking its largest yearly drop since the pandemic but may be near a short-term bottom as lower prices spur demand and curb supply. Early strength in USO aligns with that thesis.
- Bitcoin and gold: MarketWatch reported Bitcoin’s reclaiming of the $90,000 level and Deutsche Bank’s multi-year bullish gold scenario. Today’s gains in BTC and GLD/SLV line up with those narratives, though both asset classes can experience swift reversals.
Market structure and seasonality
Seasonality around Black Friday into year-end is historically constructive, as noted in recent coverage, but it is not monolithic and often interacts with prevailing macro trends. Today’s backdrop—contained medium-term inflation expectations, long-end yields near 4%–4.7%, and tech leadership tempered by rotation within AI beneficiaries—suggests a market that may grind higher while rewarding selectivity.
Outlook
With the Thanksgiving holiday reducing participation, we’ll be watching whether early gains can hold into the shortened close. More broadly, incoming labor and inflation data ahead of the December Fed meeting will set the tone for rates and risk assets. Within equities, the AI narrative is likely to remain center stage, but investors are increasingly differentiating among chip designers, custom silicon adopters, server OEMs, and software platforms. In commodities, attention turns to whether crude can base into year-end and whether the metals bid persists alongside stable real yields. In crypto, the key question is whether momentum above $90,000 can broaden without triggering sharp mean-reversion.
Risks
Key near-term risks include: thinner liquidity exacerbating price swings; operational issues (like the CME incident) affecting price discovery; a hawkish surprise from the Fed if labor data tightens; or conversely, a growth scare that pressures cyclicals and earnings expectations. For AI-linked equities, competitive dynamics and buyer concentration pose idiosyncratic risks. In commodities and crypto, volatility is an ever-present factor; position sizing and risk controls are essential.