State of Market: Close 11/28/25
Stocks grind higher into the close as tech and financials lead; gold and silver extend gains while long bonds slip
Broader indexes advance with QQQ outpacing SPY; 10-year Treasury yield near 4.0% and curve remains positively sloped vs. the 2-year. Precious metals rally, oil and broad commodities firm, euro inches higher, and crypto trades mixed.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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Overview
U.S. equities finished the session higher, capping a holiday-shortened week with broad gains across large caps and small caps. The major index ETFs all advanced, led by the Nasdaq-100 proxy QQQ, while the S&P 500 tracker SPY, the Dow proxy DIA, and the small-cap gauge IWM also closed in the green. Sector-wise, technology (XLK) and financials (XLF) showed leadership, while health care (XLV) lagged. In rates, long-duration Treasurys eased (TLT, IEF down), consistent with yields near the high end of the post-shutdown range, while the short end was essentially flat (SHY). Commodities were broadly firmer, with notable strength in gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). In FX, the euro ticked modestly higher versus the dollar, and crypto saw mixed price action with Bitcoin slightly softer and Ether gaining.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain anchored around recent levels. As of the latest available readings, the 2-year stands at 3.43%, the 5-year at 3.55%, the 10-year at 4.01%, and the 30-year at 4.67%. The curve is positively sloped between 2s and 10s by roughly 0.6 percentage point, a configuration that helps ease some growth-scare concerns that can surface when the curve is inverted. Against that level backdrop, long-duration bond proxies underperformed on the day (TLT and IEF), while short-duration SHY was essentially unchanged.
Headline inflation data continue to show a contained trend. The latest CPI index level is 324.368 and core CPI is 330.542 (both index values; data not provided for month-over-month or year-over-year rates). Market-based inflation expectations point to moderate medium-term pressures, with 5-year expectations around 2.36% and 10-year at 2.31%. A one-year model-based expectation sits at approximately 2.74%. In combination, these figures suggest that markets are pricing inflation near, though slightly above, the Federal Reserve’s long-run target over the medium term.
Recent reporting points to a mixed macro tone heading into year-end. MarketWatch highlighted that the economy “muddled along during the shutdown,” with softer hiring and sticky inflation, raising the question of whether another policy rate cut is on the table. Jobless claims were recently described as trending toward a seven-month low, signaling a still-resilient labor market, while mortgage rates fell sharply on expectations of future Fed easing. Political headlines also touched on the potential for a change at the Fed’s helm before Christmas, a development investors will monitor for potential policy-signal effects (both timing and emphasis on growth versus inflation). Absent fresh, high-frequency economic surprises, the current combination of moderately firm growth, anchored expectations, and policy uncertainty keeps the balance of risks finely poised for both duration and risk assets.
Equities: broad-based gains with tech leadership
All four major index ETFs closed higher:
- SPY: 683.39 vs. 679.68 previous close (+3.71, about +0.55%).
- QQQ: 619.18 vs. 614.27 (+4.91, about +0.80%).
- DIA: 477.20 vs. 474.35 (+2.85, about +0.60%).
- IWM: 248.67 vs. 247.30 (+1.37, about +0.55%).
Technology outperformed:
- XLK: 286.24 vs. 283.78 (+2.46, about +0.87%).
Financials were firm:
- XLF: 53.311 vs. 52.95 (+0.361, about +0.68%).
Energy (as provided) also advanced:
- XLE: 90.61 vs. 89.99 (+0.62, about +0.69%).
Health care lagged:
- XLV: 157.54 vs. 158.42 (−0.88, about −0.56%).
The day’s leadership skews align with several notable themes in the week’s news flow. MarketWatch noted that Meta and Microsoft posted their strongest weekly gains since May, pointing to a rekindling of enthusiasm in parts of Big Tech after a choppy three-month stretch. At the same time, articles flagged dispersion within the AI complex: Alphabet has been strong, with commentary about its AI chip potential and technical overbought conditions, while Nvidia faced scrutiny and volatility as investors digested competitive dynamics. A CNBC piece argued the Nvidia selloff was fear-driven rather than fundamentals-based, underscoring the market’s debate about winners and durability within the AI supply chain. Another MarketWatch item highlighted that only select tech names have outperformed in November, underscoring the market’s increasing discrimination within the sector.
Outside of mega-cap tech, stock-specific retail stories offered a mixed but improving picture. Urban Outfitters was cited for a turnaround at its namesake stores, and Kohl’s drew attention for a meme-like upswing backed by better results—an important nuance relative to past episode dynamics. More broadly, MarketWatch reported that larger retailers project calm and confidence this holiday season, while smaller businesses feel more pressure amid tariff and cost crosscurrents. Seasonality also came into view: historically, Black Friday can kick off a constructive stretch for equities into year-end, though one MarketWatch piece framed November’s pullback as either a speed bump or a hint of a more significant inflection, reflecting ongoing two-way risk.
Finally, a MarketWatch report noted CME’s temporary halt of futures trading earlier in the day due to a data center cooling issue. While the direct market impact appears limited in today’s cash session based on the ETF closes, infrastructure stability remains a non-trivial operational risk to monitor.
Bonds: duration edges lower as yields stay elevated vs. the short end
Treasury ETFs reflected slight pressure on duration:
- TLT: 90.19 vs. 90.64 (−0.45, about −0.50%).
- IEF: 97.50 vs. 97.67 (−0.17, about −0.17%).
- SHY: 83.085 vs. 83.08 (+0.005, about +0.01%; essentially flat).
With the 10-year yield around 4.01% and the 2-year near 3.43%, the curve remains positively sloped by roughly 58 basis points. Long-duration weakness alongside steady short-end pricing is consistent with an environment where long rates remain sensitive to term premium and inflation risk, while near-term policy expectations are comparatively stable. The mixed set of macro headlines—softening labor indicators vs. still-firm inflation descriptors—keeps the duration trade tactical rather than trending.
Commodities: precious metals rally; oil and broad commodities firm
Precious metals showed notable strength:
- GLD: 387.98 vs. 383.12 (+4.86, about +1.27%).
- SLV: 51.205 vs. 48.40 (+2.805, about +5.80%).
MarketWatch highlighted an aggressive medium-term forecast for gold from a major bank, and while forecasts are not price drivers on their own, the bid in GLD and pronounced outperformance in SLV today underline ongoing investor interest in precious metals. These moves often coincide with a mix of macro hedging and currency dynamics. With EURUSD slightly firmer today and long rates steady-to-firm, the magnitude of silver’s outperformance is notable.
Energy and diversified commodities were also higher:
- USO: 71.065 vs. 70.04 (+1.025, about +1.46%).
- UNG: 14.745 vs. 14.25 (+0.495, about +3.47%).
- DBC: 23.065 vs. 22.76 (+0.305, about +1.34%).
MarketWatch reporting pointed out that oil remains on track for its largest yearly decline since the pandemic, though prices could be near a short-term bottom as lower prices stoke demand and temper output. Today’s firming in USO and the broad commodity basket (DBC) is directionally consistent with that narrative. Natural gas also posted a solid gain via UNG.
FX and crypto: euro edges up; crypto mixed
- EURUSD: 1.15985 mark vs. 1.15833 open (about +0.13%) with a 1.15457–1.16012 intraday range. A slight euro bid aligns with today’s firmer metals complex and may reflect modest dollar softness.
- BTCUSD: 91,251.58 mark vs. 91,438.69 open (about −0.20%), range 90,218.93–93,116.30. Bitcoin remains above 90,000 as noted in MarketWatch coverage, which highlighted a strategist view that 100,000 could be within reach; today’s small dip suggests consolidation at elevated levels.
- ETHUSD: 3,057.75 mark vs. 3,017.44 open (about +1.34%), range 3,000.33–3,100.12. Ether outperformed Bitcoin intraday.
Notable movers and themes from the news flow
- Big Tech sentiment improved into the holiday week. MarketWatch reported Meta and Microsoft logged their largest weekly gains since May, while coverage also emphasized selective strength among AI beneficiaries and highlighted Alphabet’s growing chip ambitions (alongside a technical overbought reading).
- AI supply chain in focus. Articles called out the recent pressure in Nvidia amid competitive concerns and the worst month in three years for AMD, while a CNBC item argued Nvidia’s selloff was overdone. Separately, Dell delivered an upbeat forecast driven by AI servers, adding nuance to the capital spending and infrastructure layers of the AI ecosystem.
- Software volatility. Workday shares were under pressure after subscription revenue guidance was revised, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to forward-looking metrics in high-valuation subsectors.
- Retail dispersion. Urban Outfitters drew favorable attention on execution, and Kohl’s saw a results-backed surge, while broader commentary suggested larger retailers are more confident heading into the holiday season than smaller counterparts facing tariff and cost headwinds.
- Market mechanics. CME’s temporary halt in futures trading due to a cooling issue was a reminder that operational hiccups can ripple through liquidity and price discovery, even if the immediate effect today was limited at the index level.
Outlook
- Data dependency remains high. Upcoming labor indicators—job openings, wage dynamics, and consumer labor-market perceptions—were flagged as key by MarketWatch, and they will shape both the December Fed decision and early-2026 expectations.
- Policy watch. Reporting suggests there’s a chance of a new Fed chair nomination before Christmas. Any change in leadership or signaling around the reaction function could influence the front end of the curve and, by extension, equity multiples.
- Seasonality vs. selectivity. Black Friday often opens a supportive seasonal window for equities, but multiple pieces emphasized increasing dispersion within tech and retail. Expect continued differentiation within AI beneficiaries and holiday retail winners vs. laggards.
- Commodities and the dollar. With oil attempting to stabilize and precious metals rallying, cross-asset signals suggest a potential tug-of-war between growth expectations and hedging demand. FX dynamics (e.g., EURUSD) will remain relevant to commodity pricing and multinational earnings translation.
- Crypto levels. Bitcoin’s hold above 90,000 and Ether’s relative strength today point to constructive sentiment despite mixed daily moves. Follow-through and breadth within digital assets will be important into year-end.
Risks
- Policy and personnel uncertainty. Leadership changes at the Fed and the path of rate cuts or holds introduce event risk.
- Growth vs. inflation trade-offs. “Muddling along” growth with sticky components of inflation could keep term premia elevated and pressure duration and high-multiple equities intermittently.
- Market structure. Operational disruptions—such as CME’s data center cooling issue—can impair liquidity and price discovery.
- Sector concentration. AI enthusiasm is unevenly distributed. Negative surprises from key enablers or shifts in competitive positioning could produce outsized factor swings.
- Geopolitics and energy. Headlines around international negotiations and supply dynamics may keep oil and broad commodities volatile, with feedback loops into inflation expectations and risk sentiment.
Overview
U.S. equities finished the session higher, capping a holiday-shortened week with broad gains across large caps and small caps. The major index ETFs all advanced, led by the Nasdaq-100 proxy QQQ, while the S&P 500 tracker SPY, the Dow proxy DIA, and the small-cap gauge IWM also closed in the green. Sector-wise, technology (XLK) and financials (XLF) showed leadership, while health care (XLV) lagged. In rates, long-duration Treasurys eased (TLT, IEF down), consistent with yields near the high end of the post-shutdown range, while the short end was essentially flat (SHY). Commodities were broadly firmer, with notable strength in gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). In FX, the euro ticked modestly higher versus the dollar, and crypto saw mixed price action with Bitcoin slightly softer and Ether gaining.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain anchored around recent levels. As of the latest available readings, the 2-year stands at 3.43%, the 5-year at 3.55%, the 10-year at 4.01%, and the 30-year at 4.67%. The curve is positively sloped between 2s and 10s by roughly 0.6 percentage point, a configuration that helps ease some growth-scare concerns that can surface when the curve is inverted. Against that level backdrop, long-duration bond proxies underperformed on the day (TLT and IEF), while short-duration SHY was essentially unchanged.
Headline inflation data continue to show a contained trend. The latest CPI index level is 324.368 and core CPI is 330.542 (both index values; data not provided for month-over-month or year-over-year rates). Market-based inflation expectations point to moderate medium-term pressures, with 5-year expectations around 2.36% and 10-year at 2.31%. A one-year model-based expectation sits at approximately 2.74%. In combination, these figures suggest that markets are pricing inflation near, though slightly above, the Federal Reserve’s long-run target over the medium term.
Recent reporting points to a mixed macro tone heading into year-end. MarketWatch highlighted that the economy “muddled along during the shutdown,” with softer hiring and sticky inflation, raising the question of whether another policy rate cut is on the table. Jobless claims were recently described as trending toward a seven-month low, signaling a still-resilient labor market, while mortgage rates fell sharply on expectations of future Fed easing. Political headlines also touched on the potential for a change at the Fed’s helm before Christmas, a development investors will monitor for potential policy-signal effects (both timing and emphasis on growth versus inflation). Absent fresh, high-frequency economic surprises, the current combination of moderately firm growth, anchored expectations, and policy uncertainty keeps the balance of risks finely poised for both duration and risk assets.
Equities: broad-based gains with tech leadership
All four major index ETFs closed higher:
- SPY: 683.39 vs. 679.68 previous close (+3.71, about +0.55%).
- QQQ: 619.18 vs. 614.27 (+4.91, about +0.80%).
- DIA: 477.20 vs. 474.35 (+2.85, about +0.60%).
- IWM: 248.67 vs. 247.30 (+1.37, about +0.55%).
Technology outperformed:
- XLK: 286.24 vs. 283.78 (+2.46, about +0.87%).
Financials were firm:
- XLF: 53.311 vs. 52.95 (+0.361, about +0.68%).
Energy (as provided) also advanced:
- XLE: 90.61 vs. 89.99 (+0.62, about +0.69%).
Health care lagged:
- XLV: 157.54 vs. 158.42 (−0.88, about −0.56%).
The day’s leadership skews align with several notable themes in the week’s news flow. MarketWatch noted that Meta and Microsoft posted their strongest weekly gains since May, pointing to a rekindling of enthusiasm in parts of Big Tech after a choppy three-month stretch. At the same time, articles flagged dispersion within the AI complex: Alphabet has been strong, with commentary about its AI chip potential and technical overbought conditions, while Nvidia faced scrutiny and volatility as investors digested competitive dynamics. A CNBC piece argued the Nvidia selloff was fear-driven rather than fundamentals-based, underscoring the market’s debate about winners and durability within the AI supply chain. Another MarketWatch item highlighted that only select tech names have outperformed in November, underscoring the market’s increasing discrimination within the sector.
Outside of mega-cap tech, stock-specific retail stories offered a mixed but improving picture. Urban Outfitters was cited for a turnaround at its namesake stores, and Kohl’s drew attention for a meme-like upswing backed by better results—an important nuance relative to past episode dynamics. More broadly, MarketWatch reported that larger retailers project calm and confidence this holiday season, while smaller businesses feel more pressure amid tariff and cost crosscurrents. Seasonality also came into view: historically, Black Friday can kick off a constructive stretch for equities into year-end, though one MarketWatch piece framed November’s pullback as either a speed bump or a hint of a more significant inflection, reflecting ongoing two-way risk.
Finally, a MarketWatch report noted CME’s temporary halt of futures trading earlier in the day due to a data center cooling issue. While the direct market impact appears limited in today’s cash session based on the ETF closes, infrastructure stability remains a non-trivial operational risk to monitor.
Bonds: duration edges lower as yields stay elevated vs. the short end
Treasury ETFs reflected slight pressure on duration:
- TLT: 90.19 vs. 90.64 (−0.45, about −0.50%).
- IEF: 97.50 vs. 97.67 (−0.17, about −0.17%).
- SHY: 83.085 vs. 83.08 (+0.005, about +0.01%; essentially flat).
With the 10-year yield around 4.01% and the 2-year near 3.43%, the curve remains positively sloped by roughly 58 basis points. Long-duration weakness alongside steady short-end pricing is consistent with an environment where long rates remain sensitive to term premium and inflation risk, while near-term policy expectations are comparatively stable. The mixed set of macro headlines—softening labor indicators vs. still-firm inflation descriptors—keeps the duration trade tactical rather than trending.
Commodities: precious metals rally; oil and broad commodities firm
Precious metals showed notable strength:
- GLD: 387.98 vs. 383.12 (+4.86, about +1.27%).
- SLV: 51.205 vs. 48.40 (+2.805, about +5.80%).
MarketWatch highlighted an aggressive medium-term forecast for gold from a major bank, and while forecasts are not price drivers on their own, the bid in GLD and pronounced outperformance in SLV today underline ongoing investor interest in precious metals. These moves often coincide with a mix of macro hedging and currency dynamics. With EURUSD slightly firmer today and long rates steady-to-firm, the magnitude of silver’s outperformance is notable.
Energy and diversified commodities were also higher:
- USO: 71.065 vs. 70.04 (+1.025, about +1.46%).
- UNG: 14.745 vs. 14.25 (+0.495, about +3.47%).
- DBC: 23.065 vs. 22.76 (+0.305, about +1.34%).
MarketWatch reporting pointed out that oil remains on track for its largest yearly decline since the pandemic, though prices could be near a short-term bottom as lower prices stoke demand and temper output. Today’s firming in USO and the broad commodity basket (DBC) is directionally consistent with that narrative. Natural gas also posted a solid gain via UNG.
FX and crypto: euro edges up; crypto mixed
- EURUSD: 1.15985 mark vs. 1.15833 open (about +0.13%) with a 1.15457–1.16012 intraday range. A slight euro bid aligns with today’s firmer metals complex and may reflect modest dollar softness.
- BTCUSD: 91,251.58 mark vs. 91,438.69 open (about −0.20%), range 90,218.93–93,116.30. Bitcoin remains above 90,000 as noted in MarketWatch coverage, which highlighted a strategist view that 100,000 could be within reach; today’s small dip suggests consolidation at elevated levels.
- ETHUSD: 3,057.75 mark vs. 3,017.44 open (about +1.34%), range 3,000.33–3,100.12. Ether outperformed Bitcoin intraday.
Notable movers and themes from the news flow
- Big Tech sentiment improved into the holiday week. MarketWatch reported Meta and Microsoft logged their largest weekly gains since May, while coverage also emphasized selective strength among AI beneficiaries and highlighted Alphabet’s growing chip ambitions (alongside a technical overbought reading).
- AI supply chain in focus. Articles called out the recent pressure in Nvidia amid competitive concerns and the worst month in three years for AMD, while a CNBC item argued Nvidia’s selloff was overdone. Separately, Dell delivered an upbeat forecast driven by AI servers, adding nuance to the capital spending and infrastructure layers of the AI ecosystem.
- Software volatility. Workday shares were under pressure after subscription revenue guidance was revised, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to forward-looking metrics in high-valuation subsectors.
- Retail dispersion. Urban Outfitters drew favorable attention on execution, and Kohl’s saw a results-backed surge, while broader commentary suggested larger retailers are more confident heading into the holiday season than smaller counterparts facing tariff and cost headwinds.
- Market mechanics. CME’s temporary halt in futures trading due to a cooling issue was a reminder that operational hiccups can ripple through liquidity and price discovery, even if the immediate effect today was limited at the index level.
Outlook
- Data dependency remains high. Upcoming labor indicators—job openings, wage dynamics, and consumer labor-market perceptions—were flagged as key by MarketWatch, and they will shape both the December Fed decision and early-2026 expectations.
- Policy watch. Reporting suggests there’s a chance of a new Fed chair nomination before Christmas. Any change in leadership or signaling around the reaction function could influence the front end of the curve and, by extension, equity multiples.
- Seasonality vs. selectivity. Black Friday often opens a supportive seasonal window for equities, but multiple pieces emphasized increasing dispersion within tech and retail. Expect continued differentiation within AI beneficiaries and holiday retail winners vs. laggards.
- Commodities and the dollar. With oil attempting to stabilize and precious metals rallying, cross-asset signals suggest a potential tug-of-war between growth expectations and hedging demand. FX dynamics (e.g., EURUSD) will remain relevant to commodity pricing and multinational earnings translation.
- Crypto levels. Bitcoin’s hold above 90,000 and Ether’s relative strength today point to constructive sentiment despite mixed daily moves. Follow-through and breadth within digital assets will be important into year-end.
Risks
- Policy and personnel uncertainty. Leadership changes at the Fed and the path of rate cuts or holds introduce event risk.
- Growth vs. inflation trade-offs. “Muddling along” growth with sticky components of inflation could keep term premia elevated and pressure duration and high-multiple equities intermittently.
- Market structure. Operational disruptions—such as CME’s data center cooling issue—can impair liquidity and price discovery.
- Sector concentration. AI enthusiasm is unevenly distributed. Negative surprises from key enablers or shifts in competitive positioning could produce outsized factor swings.
- Geopolitics and energy. Headlines around international negotiations and supply dynamics may keep oil and broad commodities volatile, with feedback loops into inflation expectations and risk sentiment.