State of Market: Close 11/14/25
Stocks finish mixed as oil rallies, gold retreats, and long bonds slide; Dow lags while tech steadies
Yields remain elevated with the 10-year near 4.08% and inflation expectations anchored around 2.3%. Crypto extends its selloff as bitcoin slips below $95,000. Sector rotation favors tech and energy over financials and health care.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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U.S. equities closed the week on a mixed note, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after a sharp pullback and ongoing macro uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average proxy (DIA) underperformed with a drop of about 0.61%, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finished essentially flat at -0.01%, while the Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) inched higher by 0.07%. Small caps outperformed modestly, with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) up 0.30%.
Under the surface, sector rotation remained the dominant theme. Technology stabilized—an outcome consistent with reports that investors are reassessing the extent of the recent tech-led selloff—while financials and health care lagged. Energy shares benefited from firmer crude, even as safe-haven metals saw profit-taking.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain elevated across the curve based on the latest available readings. The 2-year sits near 3.56%, the 5-year near 3.68%, the 10-year around 4.08%, and the 30-year near 4.67%. The curve is upward sloping from the front end to the long end, a configuration that has weighed on duration-sensitive assets today. That pressure showed up most clearly in long-dated Treasuries, where the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) fell 0.57%, and the 7–10 Year ETF (IEF) slipped 0.15%. The 1–3 Year ETF (SHY) was essentially unchanged to slightly higher (+0.02%), reflecting the relative stability of the very front end.
Inflation data remain constrained by the recent government shutdown. September CPI prints show the headline index at 324.368 and core CPI at 330.542 (index values), with reports noting that some October releases may be delayed or even lost. Against this data gap, market-based inflation expectations look well contained: 5-year breakevens are around 2.36% and 10-year around 2.31%, with modeled 1-year expectations at roughly 2.74%. That mix—elevated nominal yields but anchored longer-term inflation expectations—continues to create cross-currents for risk assets. Some strategists have emphasized the potential for year-end funding dynamics to add volatility, and commentary suggests the Federal Reserve could need to provide liquidity support if conditions tighten unexpectedly into December.
Equities: mixed finish, with tech steadier and small caps firmer
- SPY closed fractionally lower at 671.95 versus a prior 672.04 (-0.01%).
- QQQ edged up to 608.81 from 608.40 (+0.07%).
- DIA fell to 471.86 from 474.74 (-0.61%).
- IWM rose to 237.51 from 236.79 (+0.30%).
The day’s profile broadly aligns with reports that the market is searching for direction following a swift drawdown. Several observers highlighted weak breadth and technical levels to watch, while others argued the broader bull market has earned the benefit of the doubt as long as key supports hold. That tug-of-war showed up in today’s close: mega-cap tech steadied without surging, cyclicals were mixed, and small caps showed incremental resilience.
Within sectors where quotes are available, technology (XLK) rose 0.56% (288.19 vs. 286.59), energy (XLE) gained 0.12% (88.78 vs. 88.68), financials (XLF) fell 0.98% (52.46 vs. 52.98), and health care (XLV) slipped 0.57% (151.87 vs. 152.74). Taken together, the pattern points to partial stabilization in growth/AI-adjacent names and support from higher oil, offset by pressure on rate-sensitive groups like financials and some defensives.
Company and thematic developments from the news flow added color to this rotation:
- Semiconductors and AI: Commentary around Applied Materials pointed to uninspiring near-term guidance but more constructive second-half prospects as AI and memory demand potentially re-accelerate. Nvidia garnered both bullish and skeptical takes ahead of next week’s earnings, underscoring a wider debate about valuation and sustainability even as AI infrastructure buildouts continue. Cisco’s upbeat results tied to AI networking demand highlighted the ongoing capex cycle in data infrastructure.
- Consumer and labor: Starbucks faced strike headlines across dozens of cities, a reminder that wage and scheduling negotiations remain an ongoing cost and operational variable into the holiday period. Walmart announced a leadership transition, a noteworthy development given the retailer’s scale and its role as a consumer bellwether.
- M&A and pharma: Merck’s plan to acquire Cidara Therapeutics signaled ongoing pipeline diversification in the face of key patent cliffs.
- Autos and mobility: Tesla remained in focus after recent weakness and product-related headlines. Separately, Waymo’s progress toward driverless freeway operations keeps autonomous mobility in the spotlight.
Bonds: duration under pressure as long yields stay firm
Bond ETFs reflected the rate backdrop. TLT declined 0.57% (88.88 vs. 89.38), extending its sensitivity to moves at the long end of the curve. IEF was down 0.15% (96.46 vs. 96.60), while SHY ticked up 0.02% (82.82 vs. 82.80). The combination of a 10-year near 4.08% and a 30-year near 4.67% keeps term premia in focus. Reports that yields rose as investors welcomed the end of the shutdown help explain the day’s negative duration impulse, while the prospect of interrupted October macro releases has likely muted conviction across fixed income and rates strategies.
Commodities: oil up, gold and silver down, broad basket firmer
Crude oil strengthened, with USO up 2.19% (71.38 vs. 69.85). Geopolitical commentary about potential supply risks—ranging from U.S.-Venezuela tensions to uncertainty around Russian export enforcement—has supported crude’s risk premium. A broad commodities basket (DBC) advanced 0.20% (22.965 vs. 22.92), consistent with firmer energy.
By contrast, precious metals pulled back. Gold (GLD) fell 1.80% (375.97 vs. 382.87) and silver (SLV) declined 3.08% (45.96 vs. 47.42). This reversal sits against recent narratives of strong bullion demand on U.S. fiscal uncertainty and rate-cut hopes. The divergence today likely reflects the drag from higher nominal yields and some unwinding of safe-haven positioning.
Natural gas (UNG) slipped 1.76% (14.55 vs. 14.81), continuing its recent volatility amid seasonal and storage dynamics.
FX and crypto: euro range-bound, bitcoin extends its slide
The euro traded narrowly against the dollar. EURUSD hovered near 1.162, traversing an intraday range of roughly 1.1605 to 1.1653. With the U.S. data calendar disrupted by the shutdown’s ripple effects, FX price action remained contained pending the next clear macro signal.
Crypto was weaker. Bitcoin’s mark price near 94,266 was below its open, extending a multi-day slide noted by several outlets; intraday, it traded between roughly 94,066 and 98,029, with reports emphasizing a break below $95,000 as selling from longer-term holders picked up. Ether also traded lower on the day, marked near 3,134 against an intraday range of about 3,067 to 3,255. The broader discussion around stablecoins and tokenization featured in the news flow, but it did not translate into positive price action for major crypto assets today.
Notable storylines and what they suggest
- Market structure and positioning: Commentary from sell-side strategists highlighted the role of leveraged products and crowded positioning in amplifying the latest downturn. This resonates with the day’s mixed close and weak breadth references—equities can rebound selectively even as the broader tape remains fragile.
- Year-end calendar risks: Options markets have zeroed in on December 10 as a high-stakes date given overlapping event risks. In parallel, some houses highlighted the possibility that the Fed may need to inject liquidity over the year-end period to tamp down potential funding strains. These dynamics can produce sharp, if temporary, cross-asset moves.
- AI capex and corporate strategy: The steady drumbeat of AI-related investment—across chips, networking, and data centers—continues to create winners and losers. While debates about valuations persist, the capex cycle remains intact, underpinning technology’s relative resilience today.
- Consumer health and housing: Reports flagged a rise in foreclosures and an increase in underwater homeowners, even as headline consumer sentiment shows signs of improvement. That divergence could cap the speed of any cyclical upswing, particularly for rate-sensitive pockets of the market.
Outlook: what to watch next
Focus will likely pivot to the following in the near term:
- Company earnings and guidance: All eyes turn to next week’s marquee AI earnings, with investors weighing demand durability, capex intensity, and supply chain cadence across semis and infrastructure vendors.
- Rates and liquidity: Watch the 10-year around 4.08% and the long bond near 4.67% for clues on duration pressure. Any Fed communication about year-end funding support would be market-relevant.
- December event risk: Options positioning into the December 10 window could amplify volatility; investors should be mindful of potential gamma-related flows.
- Energy dynamics: Geopolitical developments affecting Venezuela and enforcement of Russian oil sanctions could sustain crude’s bid.
- Data normalization: The end of the shutdown reduces uncertainty, but October economic data gaps may keep near-term macro inference noisy.
Bottom line
Friday’s session reflected a market balancing elevated yields, selective tech resilience, and commodity cross-currents. The Dow’s underperformance contrasted with modest gains for growth and small caps, while crude’s strength and gold’s pullback underscored the day’s pro-cyclical tone. With inflation expectations steady and several policy and liquidity milestones ahead, investors appear content to reduce risk at the margin while awaiting clearer signals from upcoming earnings and December’s event-heavy calendar.
U.S. equities closed the week on a mixed note, reflecting a market that is recalibrating after a sharp pullback and ongoing macro uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average proxy (DIA) underperformed with a drop of about 0.61%, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) finished essentially flat at -0.01%, while the Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) inched higher by 0.07%. Small caps outperformed modestly, with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) up 0.30%.
Under the surface, sector rotation remained the dominant theme. Technology stabilized—an outcome consistent with reports that investors are reassessing the extent of the recent tech-led selloff—while financials and health care lagged. Energy shares benefited from firmer crude, even as safe-haven metals saw profit-taking.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain elevated across the curve based on the latest available readings. The 2-year sits near 3.56%, the 5-year near 3.68%, the 10-year around 4.08%, and the 30-year near 4.67%. The curve is upward sloping from the front end to the long end, a configuration that has weighed on duration-sensitive assets today. That pressure showed up most clearly in long-dated Treasuries, where the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) fell 0.57%, and the 7–10 Year ETF (IEF) slipped 0.15%. The 1–3 Year ETF (SHY) was essentially unchanged to slightly higher (+0.02%), reflecting the relative stability of the very front end.
Inflation data remain constrained by the recent government shutdown. September CPI prints show the headline index at 324.368 and core CPI at 330.542 (index values), with reports noting that some October releases may be delayed or even lost. Against this data gap, market-based inflation expectations look well contained: 5-year breakevens are around 2.36% and 10-year around 2.31%, with modeled 1-year expectations at roughly 2.74%. That mix—elevated nominal yields but anchored longer-term inflation expectations—continues to create cross-currents for risk assets. Some strategists have emphasized the potential for year-end funding dynamics to add volatility, and commentary suggests the Federal Reserve could need to provide liquidity support if conditions tighten unexpectedly into December.
Equities: mixed finish, with tech steadier and small caps firmer
- SPY closed fractionally lower at 671.95 versus a prior 672.04 (-0.01%).
- QQQ edged up to 608.81 from 608.40 (+0.07%).
- DIA fell to 471.86 from 474.74 (-0.61%).
- IWM rose to 237.51 from 236.79 (+0.30%).
The day’s profile broadly aligns with reports that the market is searching for direction following a swift drawdown. Several observers highlighted weak breadth and technical levels to watch, while others argued the broader bull market has earned the benefit of the doubt as long as key supports hold. That tug-of-war showed up in today’s close: mega-cap tech steadied without surging, cyclicals were mixed, and small caps showed incremental resilience.
Within sectors where quotes are available, technology (XLK) rose 0.56% (288.19 vs. 286.59), energy (XLE) gained 0.12% (88.78 vs. 88.68), financials (XLF) fell 0.98% (52.46 vs. 52.98), and health care (XLV) slipped 0.57% (151.87 vs. 152.74). Taken together, the pattern points to partial stabilization in growth/AI-adjacent names and support from higher oil, offset by pressure on rate-sensitive groups like financials and some defensives.
Company and thematic developments from the news flow added color to this rotation:
- Semiconductors and AI: Commentary around Applied Materials pointed to uninspiring near-term guidance but more constructive second-half prospects as AI and memory demand potentially re-accelerate. Nvidia garnered both bullish and skeptical takes ahead of next week’s earnings, underscoring a wider debate about valuation and sustainability even as AI infrastructure buildouts continue. Cisco’s upbeat results tied to AI networking demand highlighted the ongoing capex cycle in data infrastructure.
- Consumer and labor: Starbucks faced strike headlines across dozens of cities, a reminder that wage and scheduling negotiations remain an ongoing cost and operational variable into the holiday period. Walmart announced a leadership transition, a noteworthy development given the retailer’s scale and its role as a consumer bellwether.
- M&A and pharma: Merck’s plan to acquire Cidara Therapeutics signaled ongoing pipeline diversification in the face of key patent cliffs.
- Autos and mobility: Tesla remained in focus after recent weakness and product-related headlines. Separately, Waymo’s progress toward driverless freeway operations keeps autonomous mobility in the spotlight.
Bonds: duration under pressure as long yields stay firm
Bond ETFs reflected the rate backdrop. TLT declined 0.57% (88.88 vs. 89.38), extending its sensitivity to moves at the long end of the curve. IEF was down 0.15% (96.46 vs. 96.60), while SHY ticked up 0.02% (82.82 vs. 82.80). The combination of a 10-year near 4.08% and a 30-year near 4.67% keeps term premia in focus. Reports that yields rose as investors welcomed the end of the shutdown help explain the day’s negative duration impulse, while the prospect of interrupted October macro releases has likely muted conviction across fixed income and rates strategies.
Commodities: oil up, gold and silver down, broad basket firmer
Crude oil strengthened, with USO up 2.19% (71.38 vs. 69.85). Geopolitical commentary about potential supply risks—ranging from U.S.-Venezuela tensions to uncertainty around Russian export enforcement—has supported crude’s risk premium. A broad commodities basket (DBC) advanced 0.20% (22.965 vs. 22.92), consistent with firmer energy.
By contrast, precious metals pulled back. Gold (GLD) fell 1.80% (375.97 vs. 382.87) and silver (SLV) declined 3.08% (45.96 vs. 47.42). This reversal sits against recent narratives of strong bullion demand on U.S. fiscal uncertainty and rate-cut hopes. The divergence today likely reflects the drag from higher nominal yields and some unwinding of safe-haven positioning.
Natural gas (UNG) slipped 1.76% (14.55 vs. 14.81), continuing its recent volatility amid seasonal and storage dynamics.
FX and crypto: euro range-bound, bitcoin extends its slide
The euro traded narrowly against the dollar. EURUSD hovered near 1.162, traversing an intraday range of roughly 1.1605 to 1.1653. With the U.S. data calendar disrupted by the shutdown’s ripple effects, FX price action remained contained pending the next clear macro signal.
Crypto was weaker. Bitcoin’s mark price near 94,266 was below its open, extending a multi-day slide noted by several outlets; intraday, it traded between roughly 94,066 and 98,029, with reports emphasizing a break below $95,000 as selling from longer-term holders picked up. Ether also traded lower on the day, marked near 3,134 against an intraday range of about 3,067 to 3,255. The broader discussion around stablecoins and tokenization featured in the news flow, but it did not translate into positive price action for major crypto assets today.
Notable storylines and what they suggest
- Market structure and positioning: Commentary from sell-side strategists highlighted the role of leveraged products and crowded positioning in amplifying the latest downturn. This resonates with the day’s mixed close and weak breadth references—equities can rebound selectively even as the broader tape remains fragile.
- Year-end calendar risks: Options markets have zeroed in on December 10 as a high-stakes date given overlapping event risks. In parallel, some houses highlighted the possibility that the Fed may need to inject liquidity over the year-end period to tamp down potential funding strains. These dynamics can produce sharp, if temporary, cross-asset moves.
- AI capex and corporate strategy: The steady drumbeat of AI-related investment—across chips, networking, and data centers—continues to create winners and losers. While debates about valuations persist, the capex cycle remains intact, underpinning technology’s relative resilience today.
- Consumer health and housing: Reports flagged a rise in foreclosures and an increase in underwater homeowners, even as headline consumer sentiment shows signs of improvement. That divergence could cap the speed of any cyclical upswing, particularly for rate-sensitive pockets of the market.
Outlook: what to watch next
Focus will likely pivot to the following in the near term:
- Company earnings and guidance: All eyes turn to next week’s marquee AI earnings, with investors weighing demand durability, capex intensity, and supply chain cadence across semis and infrastructure vendors.
- Rates and liquidity: Watch the 10-year around 4.08% and the long bond near 4.67% for clues on duration pressure. Any Fed communication about year-end funding support would be market-relevant.
- December event risk: Options positioning into the December 10 window could amplify volatility; investors should be mindful of potential gamma-related flows.
- Energy dynamics: Geopolitical developments affecting Venezuela and enforcement of Russian oil sanctions could sustain crude’s bid.
- Data normalization: The end of the shutdown reduces uncertainty, but October economic data gaps may keep near-term macro inference noisy.
Bottom line
Friday’s session reflected a market balancing elevated yields, selective tech resilience, and commodity cross-currents. The Dow’s underperformance contrasted with modest gains for growth and small caps, while crude’s strength and gold’s pullback underscored the day’s pro-cyclical tone. With inflation expectations steady and several policy and liquidity milestones ahead, investors appear content to reduce risk at the margin while awaiting clearer signals from upcoming earnings and December’s event-heavy calendar.