State of Market: Close 11/26/25
Stocks and bonds climb into the holiday; tech and energy lead while gold, silver, oil and crypto advance
Major U.S. equity ETFs closed higher with XLK and XLE out front as long-duration Treasurys and bullion gained. Inflation expectations remain anchored ahead of a pivotal Fed meeting, while AI and retail headlines drove notable single-stock narratives.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
•
Overview
U.S. markets headed into the Thanksgiving break on a firmer footing. Broad equity benchmarks finished higher, led by technology and energy, while defensive health care lagged. Gains in long-duration Treasurys and precious metals underscored a macro tone of easing rate concerns and steady inflation expectations. The U.S. dollar softened modestly versus the euro, and crypto prices rallied despite a recent spate of skeptical commentary. With a holiday-adjusted schedule and Black Friday spending now in focus, attention is turning to the Federal Reserve’s December decision and whether softening growth momentum will draw another policy response.
Equities
All four major U.S. equity proxies advanced. SPY settled at 679.64, up roughly 0.69% versus its prior close of 675.02. QQQ, reflecting megacap tech sensitivity to duration, rose about 0.89% to 614.31 from 608.89. The Dow’s DIA gained approximately 0.66% to 474.31 from 471.18, while small-caps via IWM matched the Nasdaq-100’s pace, adding about 0.89% to 247.32 from 245.13. The breadth across SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM suggests a constructive, cross-cap rally rather than a narrow advance, an encouraging sign after recent volatility.
Under the hood, sector performance revealed a growth-tilted tone with cyclical participation. XLK climbed about 1.17% to 283.73 (from 280.46), topping the leaderboard. Energy (XLE) advanced roughly 1.32% to 89.98 (from 88.81), buoyed by a firmer crude tape. Financials (XLF) added approximately 0.76% to 52.94 (from 52.54). Health care (XLV) was the notable laggard, dipping about 0.25% to 158.37 (from 158.77). The mix—tech and energy leadership with health care softness—aligns with improving risk appetite and rising commodity prices.
Macro backdrop: growth, inflation, and the policy path
Multiple reports over the past day point to an economy that’s downshifting but still resilient. The Federal Reserve found the U.S. economy has been “muddling along,” with tepid hiring, persistent price pressure in pockets, and signs of consumer caution (MarketWatch). At the same time, layoffs remain subdued, with jobless claims falling to a seven-month low—evidence that the labor market remains stable (MarketWatch). Mortgage rates have edged lower on growing expectations of a Fed rate cut, providing some relief to housing affordability (MarketWatch).
Treasury yields from the latest available snapshot point to a curve with the 2-year at 3.46%, the 5-year at 3.61%, the 10-year at 4.04%, and the 30-year at 4.68%. The modest drop in longer-end yields today lined up with gains in long-duration bond ETFs (see Bonds section). Inflation data in the payload are as of September, with headline CPI at 324.368 (index level) and core CPI at 330.542. Importantly, market- and model-based inflation expectations appear well-anchored: the 5-year breakeven at about 2.36% and 10-year near 2.31%, while a 1-year model estimate sits around 2.74%. Those levels support the case that the inflation trend is moving toward the Fed’s long-run objective, even if some components remain sticky.
Investors will enter December focused on the upcoming FOMC decision. Commentary flags a tug-of-war between hawks and doves that will be sensitive to labor and wage indicators (MarketWatch). Separate reporting highlights why equities remain on a “knife’s edge” into the decision (MarketWatch). The policy backdrop is further complicated by speculation about Fed leadership; there’s a “very good chance” a new chair could be named before Christmas (CNBC), and betting activity has focused on potential candidates (MarketWatch). Markets would likely react to any surprise on that front, especially given how term premium and policy expectations have influenced rate volatility this year.
Equities: notable company and thematic headlines
While we do not have single-stock pricing in today’s quotes, several company-specific stories offer context for sector moves:
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Analysts highlighted the magnitude of Alphabet’s chip ambitions, with projections of 1 million AI chips by 2027 (MarketWatch). Another report noted Alphabet’s shares rose on potential traction supplying custom chips to Meta (MarketWatch). These dynamics bolster the broader AI infrastructure narrative supporting parts of tech, consistent with XLK’s outperformance.
- Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD): Coverage focused on Nvidia’s active rebuttal of criticism (MarketWatch) and investor debate around competitive threats from hyperscalers. A separate note detailed that AMD is having its worst month in three years (MarketWatch). These headlines reflect crosscurrents within AI semis even as the broader tech complex was firm today via QQQ and XLK.
- Dell (DELL): The company rode AI server momentum to deliver an upbeat forecast (MarketWatch), underscoring continued enterprise infrastructure demand across neocloud, sovereign, and traditional customers. Such narratives support the notion that AI’s capex cycle remains a key tailwind for parts of hardware and services.
- Amazon (AMZN): Plans to spend up to $50 billion on AI infrastructure for U.S. government workloads (CNBC) reinforce the scale of expected AI-related investment and may have positive second-order effects for suppliers and data-center ecosystems.
- Workday (WDAY): Shares fell after revised full-year subscription revenue guidance prompted analysts to trim targets (CNBC). That divergence inside software—strength in infrastructure and semis versus mixed results in applications—helps explain why not all growth cohorts are moving in lockstep.
- Consumer/retail: Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Kohl’s (KSS) both drew favorable coverage following results and turnaround commentary (MarketWatch). With the holiday shopping period beginning, several pieces suggested Black Friday deals may be harder to find, with some prices influenced by tariffs and frequent price fluctuations (MarketWatch, CNBC). Those reports may temper expectations for discretionary outperformance, though XLY was not included in today’s sector ETF quotes.
- China-linked stories: Alibaba (BABA) showcased AI credentials alongside better-than-expected revenue (MarketWatch). Separate features on consumer behavior in China highlight evolving spending patterns, which matter for global demand narratives.
- Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META): Apple was framed as regaining industry leadership momentum in smartphones (MarketWatch), while Meta drew a supportive analyst call envisioning 30% upside (MarketWatch). If sustained, such sentiment underpins the mega-cap cohort that heavily influences QQQ.
Bonds
Treasurys rallied modestly at the long end. TLT rose about 0.43% to 90.63 (from 90.24), and IEF edged up roughly 0.08% to 97.67 (from 97.59). SHY was essentially flat at 83.08 (from 83.09). The move aligns with the 10-year note yield hovering near 4.04% and expectations remaining anchored. Combined with “muddling along” growth signals and steady jobless claims, the bond bid reflects a market leaning toward some incremental policy easing risk into year-end, even as the Fed remains data-dependent.
Commodities
Commodity proxies were broadly higher. GLD advanced about 0.79% to 383.09 (from 380.08), and SLV surged approximately 3.69% to 48.39 (from 46.67), with precious metals buoyed by softer dollar dynamics and stable real-yield expectations. Notably, MarketWatch relayed a Deutsche Bank forecast that gold could approach $5,000 in 2026, reinforcing the bull case among strategic allocators who view gold as both a diversification and duration hedge.
Energy benchmarks also firmed: USO gained roughly 1.13% to 70.04 (from 69.25), while the diversified commodity ETF DBC added about 1.09% to 22.77 (from 22.52). Natural gas (UNG) rose approximately 3.15% to 14.27 (from 13.83). Sector leadership from XLE is consistent with these moves. News that Indian banks are considering financing non-sanctioned Russian oil transactions (Bloomberg) adds a geopolitical layer to energy flows, though today’s price action appears primarily tied to broader commodity strength and a slightly softer dollar.
FX and Crypto
The euro strengthened modestly against the dollar, with EURUSD marked around 1.1588, above today’s open of roughly 1.1570. A softer dollar backdrop often supports commodities and risk assets at the margin, which fits the cross-asset pattern today.
Crypto prices rallied. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) traded near 89,995, up roughly 3% versus its open, and Ether (ETHUSD) hovered near 3,027, up about 3.3% from its open. This contrasts with a MarketWatch piece arguing it’s too soon to buy Bitcoin, with a fair value estimate well below current prices. The divergence underscores the ongoing tension between valuation frameworks and momentum/liquidity drivers within digital assets.
Consumer and holiday watch
With holiday-adjusted trading and the Black Friday weekend ahead, consumer behavior is in focus. Multiple reports suggested that deal quality may be mixed this year, with tariffs and ongoing price changes reducing the uniqueness of some advertised discounts (MarketWatch, CNBC). On the other hand, surveys indicate Gen Z remains engaged in Black Friday shopping (CNBC). For equities, that mix implies a careful eye on inventory, promotional intensity, and traffic conversion over the next several days.
Putting it together
Today’s cross-asset picture—equity indices higher, long-duration Treasurys up, precious metals bid, dollar slightly softer—fits a narrative of easing macro anxiety and stable inflation expectations heading into December. Sector performance (tech and energy leadership, health care softness) echoes cyclical optimism coupled with AI-driven capex themes. Company headlines in AI semis and infrastructure continue to shape leadership dispersion inside technology, even as idiosyncratic results (e.g., Workday) remind investors to differentiate within software.
What to watch next
- Fed communication and labor data: Incoming readings on job openings, wages, and consumer sentiment will influence the December decision (MarketWatch). With claims subdued and growth “muddling along,” the bar for earlier or larger cuts will hinge on further disinflation and clear signs of cooling demand.
- Holiday spending quality vs. quantity: Reports suggest fewer standout deals, with tariffs and dynamic pricing affecting the perceived value of promotions. Watch for retailer commentary on traffic, markdowns, and margins.
- AI capex durability: Alphabet’s chip push, Amazon’s AI infrastructure plans, and Dell’s server momentum highlight a multi-year investment cycle. Supplier ecosystems and power/thermal infrastructure remain key beneficiaries.
- Policy headlines: Potential developments around Fed leadership (CNBC, MarketWatch) could inject rate-path uncertainty and impact term premium.
Risks
- Policy uncertainty: A surprise in Fed leadership or guidance could shift the path of rates, reverberating across duration-sensitive equities and credit.
- Competitive dynamics in AI semis: Hyperscaler chip efforts may pressure incumbent margins and reshape supplier relationships, contributing to volatility in NVDA/AMD ecosystems.
- Consumer fatigue: If discounts fail to entice, holiday sales could disappoint, pressuring retail and discretionary names.
- Manufacturing softness: Despite AI-led investment, broader industrial data remain sluggish (MarketWatch), which could weigh on cyclicals if it persists.
- Geopolitical energy flows: Changes in financing and trade routes for crude and refined products (Bloomberg) can add volatility to oil and related equities.
Closing take
Into the holiday, markets appear balanced between constructive macro signals—anchored expectations, steady employment—and crosscurrents from policy and competition within AI. For now, the price action leans risk-on, but the next several weeks will be defined by the Fed’s tone, holiday spending evidence, and whether disinflation continues without a sharper growth trade-off.
Overview
U.S. markets headed into the Thanksgiving break on a firmer footing. Broad equity benchmarks finished higher, led by technology and energy, while defensive health care lagged. Gains in long-duration Treasurys and precious metals underscored a macro tone of easing rate concerns and steady inflation expectations. The U.S. dollar softened modestly versus the euro, and crypto prices rallied despite a recent spate of skeptical commentary. With a holiday-adjusted schedule and Black Friday spending now in focus, attention is turning to the Federal Reserve’s December decision and whether softening growth momentum will draw another policy response.
Equities
All four major U.S. equity proxies advanced. SPY settled at 679.64, up roughly 0.69% versus its prior close of 675.02. QQQ, reflecting megacap tech sensitivity to duration, rose about 0.89% to 614.31 from 608.89. The Dow’s DIA gained approximately 0.66% to 474.31 from 471.18, while small-caps via IWM matched the Nasdaq-100’s pace, adding about 0.89% to 247.32 from 245.13. The breadth across SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM suggests a constructive, cross-cap rally rather than a narrow advance, an encouraging sign after recent volatility.
Under the hood, sector performance revealed a growth-tilted tone with cyclical participation. XLK climbed about 1.17% to 283.73 (from 280.46), topping the leaderboard. Energy (XLE) advanced roughly 1.32% to 89.98 (from 88.81), buoyed by a firmer crude tape. Financials (XLF) added approximately 0.76% to 52.94 (from 52.54). Health care (XLV) was the notable laggard, dipping about 0.25% to 158.37 (from 158.77). The mix—tech and energy leadership with health care softness—aligns with improving risk appetite and rising commodity prices.
Macro backdrop: growth, inflation, and the policy path
Multiple reports over the past day point to an economy that’s downshifting but still resilient. The Federal Reserve found the U.S. economy has been “muddling along,” with tepid hiring, persistent price pressure in pockets, and signs of consumer caution (MarketWatch). At the same time, layoffs remain subdued, with jobless claims falling to a seven-month low—evidence that the labor market remains stable (MarketWatch). Mortgage rates have edged lower on growing expectations of a Fed rate cut, providing some relief to housing affordability (MarketWatch).
Treasury yields from the latest available snapshot point to a curve with the 2-year at 3.46%, the 5-year at 3.61%, the 10-year at 4.04%, and the 30-year at 4.68%. The modest drop in longer-end yields today lined up with gains in long-duration bond ETFs (see Bonds section). Inflation data in the payload are as of September, with headline CPI at 324.368 (index level) and core CPI at 330.542. Importantly, market- and model-based inflation expectations appear well-anchored: the 5-year breakeven at about 2.36% and 10-year near 2.31%, while a 1-year model estimate sits around 2.74%. Those levels support the case that the inflation trend is moving toward the Fed’s long-run objective, even if some components remain sticky.
Investors will enter December focused on the upcoming FOMC decision. Commentary flags a tug-of-war between hawks and doves that will be sensitive to labor and wage indicators (MarketWatch). Separate reporting highlights why equities remain on a “knife’s edge” into the decision (MarketWatch). The policy backdrop is further complicated by speculation about Fed leadership; there’s a “very good chance” a new chair could be named before Christmas (CNBC), and betting activity has focused on potential candidates (MarketWatch). Markets would likely react to any surprise on that front, especially given how term premium and policy expectations have influenced rate volatility this year.
Equities: notable company and thematic headlines
While we do not have single-stock pricing in today’s quotes, several company-specific stories offer context for sector moves:
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Analysts highlighted the magnitude of Alphabet’s chip ambitions, with projections of 1 million AI chips by 2027 (MarketWatch). Another report noted Alphabet’s shares rose on potential traction supplying custom chips to Meta (MarketWatch). These dynamics bolster the broader AI infrastructure narrative supporting parts of tech, consistent with XLK’s outperformance.
- Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD): Coverage focused on Nvidia’s active rebuttal of criticism (MarketWatch) and investor debate around competitive threats from hyperscalers. A separate note detailed that AMD is having its worst month in three years (MarketWatch). These headlines reflect crosscurrents within AI semis even as the broader tech complex was firm today via QQQ and XLK.
- Dell (DELL): The company rode AI server momentum to deliver an upbeat forecast (MarketWatch), underscoring continued enterprise infrastructure demand across neocloud, sovereign, and traditional customers. Such narratives support the notion that AI’s capex cycle remains a key tailwind for parts of hardware and services.
- Amazon (AMZN): Plans to spend up to $50 billion on AI infrastructure for U.S. government workloads (CNBC) reinforce the scale of expected AI-related investment and may have positive second-order effects for suppliers and data-center ecosystems.
- Workday (WDAY): Shares fell after revised full-year subscription revenue guidance prompted analysts to trim targets (CNBC). That divergence inside software—strength in infrastructure and semis versus mixed results in applications—helps explain why not all growth cohorts are moving in lockstep.
- Consumer/retail: Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Kohl’s (KSS) both drew favorable coverage following results and turnaround commentary (MarketWatch). With the holiday shopping period beginning, several pieces suggested Black Friday deals may be harder to find, with some prices influenced by tariffs and frequent price fluctuations (MarketWatch, CNBC). Those reports may temper expectations for discretionary outperformance, though XLY was not included in today’s sector ETF quotes.
- China-linked stories: Alibaba (BABA) showcased AI credentials alongside better-than-expected revenue (MarketWatch). Separate features on consumer behavior in China highlight evolving spending patterns, which matter for global demand narratives.
- Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META): Apple was framed as regaining industry leadership momentum in smartphones (MarketWatch), while Meta drew a supportive analyst call envisioning 30% upside (MarketWatch). If sustained, such sentiment underpins the mega-cap cohort that heavily influences QQQ.
Bonds
Treasurys rallied modestly at the long end. TLT rose about 0.43% to 90.63 (from 90.24), and IEF edged up roughly 0.08% to 97.67 (from 97.59). SHY was essentially flat at 83.08 (from 83.09). The move aligns with the 10-year note yield hovering near 4.04% and expectations remaining anchored. Combined with “muddling along” growth signals and steady jobless claims, the bond bid reflects a market leaning toward some incremental policy easing risk into year-end, even as the Fed remains data-dependent.
Commodities
Commodity proxies were broadly higher. GLD advanced about 0.79% to 383.09 (from 380.08), and SLV surged approximately 3.69% to 48.39 (from 46.67), with precious metals buoyed by softer dollar dynamics and stable real-yield expectations. Notably, MarketWatch relayed a Deutsche Bank forecast that gold could approach $5,000 in 2026, reinforcing the bull case among strategic allocators who view gold as both a diversification and duration hedge.
Energy benchmarks also firmed: USO gained roughly 1.13% to 70.04 (from 69.25), while the diversified commodity ETF DBC added about 1.09% to 22.77 (from 22.52). Natural gas (UNG) rose approximately 3.15% to 14.27 (from 13.83). Sector leadership from XLE is consistent with these moves. News that Indian banks are considering financing non-sanctioned Russian oil transactions (Bloomberg) adds a geopolitical layer to energy flows, though today’s price action appears primarily tied to broader commodity strength and a slightly softer dollar.
FX and Crypto
The euro strengthened modestly against the dollar, with EURUSD marked around 1.1588, above today’s open of roughly 1.1570. A softer dollar backdrop often supports commodities and risk assets at the margin, which fits the cross-asset pattern today.
Crypto prices rallied. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) traded near 89,995, up roughly 3% versus its open, and Ether (ETHUSD) hovered near 3,027, up about 3.3% from its open. This contrasts with a MarketWatch piece arguing it’s too soon to buy Bitcoin, with a fair value estimate well below current prices. The divergence underscores the ongoing tension between valuation frameworks and momentum/liquidity drivers within digital assets.
Consumer and holiday watch
With holiday-adjusted trading and the Black Friday weekend ahead, consumer behavior is in focus. Multiple reports suggested that deal quality may be mixed this year, with tariffs and ongoing price changes reducing the uniqueness of some advertised discounts (MarketWatch, CNBC). On the other hand, surveys indicate Gen Z remains engaged in Black Friday shopping (CNBC). For equities, that mix implies a careful eye on inventory, promotional intensity, and traffic conversion over the next several days.
Putting it together
Today’s cross-asset picture—equity indices higher, long-duration Treasurys up, precious metals bid, dollar slightly softer—fits a narrative of easing macro anxiety and stable inflation expectations heading into December. Sector performance (tech and energy leadership, health care softness) echoes cyclical optimism coupled with AI-driven capex themes. Company headlines in AI semis and infrastructure continue to shape leadership dispersion inside technology, even as idiosyncratic results (e.g., Workday) remind investors to differentiate within software.
What to watch next
- Fed communication and labor data: Incoming readings on job openings, wages, and consumer sentiment will influence the December decision (MarketWatch). With claims subdued and growth “muddling along,” the bar for earlier or larger cuts will hinge on further disinflation and clear signs of cooling demand.
- Holiday spending quality vs. quantity: Reports suggest fewer standout deals, with tariffs and dynamic pricing affecting the perceived value of promotions. Watch for retailer commentary on traffic, markdowns, and margins.
- AI capex durability: Alphabet’s chip push, Amazon’s AI infrastructure plans, and Dell’s server momentum highlight a multi-year investment cycle. Supplier ecosystems and power/thermal infrastructure remain key beneficiaries.
- Policy headlines: Potential developments around Fed leadership (CNBC, MarketWatch) could inject rate-path uncertainty and impact term premium.
Risks
- Policy uncertainty: A surprise in Fed leadership or guidance could shift the path of rates, reverberating across duration-sensitive equities and credit.
- Competitive dynamics in AI semis: Hyperscaler chip efforts may pressure incumbent margins and reshape supplier relationships, contributing to volatility in NVDA/AMD ecosystems.
- Consumer fatigue: If discounts fail to entice, holiday sales could disappoint, pressuring retail and discretionary names.
- Manufacturing softness: Despite AI-led investment, broader industrial data remain sluggish (MarketWatch), which could weigh on cyclicals if it persists.
- Geopolitical energy flows: Changes in financing and trade routes for crude and refined products (Bloomberg) can add volatility to oil and related equities.
Closing take
Into the holiday, markets appear balanced between constructive macro signals—anchored expectations, steady employment—and crosscurrents from policy and competition within AI. For now, the price action leans risk-on, but the next several weeks will be defined by the Fed’s tone, holiday spending evidence, and whether disinflation continues without a sharper growth trade-off.