State of Market: Open 11/13/25
Softer open as investors parse shutdown endgame, stubborn inflation views, and firmer commodities
Equities ease at the bell with mega-cap tech lagging modestly, Treasurys slip as long yields hover above 4%, while gold and oil firm on policy and supply headlines
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Stocks opened a touch lower on Thursday as traders weighed the final steps to end the historic U.S. government shutdown, calibrated expectations for inflation and policy, and digested a firmer tone across key commodities. At the open, the major index ETFs are slightly in the red: SPY trades around 680.50 versus a prior close of 683.38, QQQ near 617.77 vs. 621.08, DIA around 481.58 vs. 482.76, and IWM near 241.76 vs. 243.64. The early tone reflects a modest giveback after a strong run in value and cyclicals noted this week, even as the policy backdrop looks set to stabilize once the House votes on a shutdown-ending bill later today.
Macro context is front and center. On the rates side, the latest Treasury curve snapshot shows the 2-year at 3.58%, 5-year at 3.72%, 10-year at 4.13%, and 30-year at 4.71%. The modestly higher long-end versus the belly leaves the curve still upward sloping from 10s to 30s, a configuration that can pressure duration-heavy bond proxies early in the session. September CPI remains elevated in level terms (headline CPI index at 324.368 and core at 330.542), and market-based inflation expectations are anchored in the low-2s for the medium to long run (about 2.36% for 5-year and 2.31% for 10-year breakevens; one-year expectations were not provided). That combination—price levels still high with medium-term expectations contained—helps explain why equities can digest higher nominal yields so long as growth remains adequate and policy normalization proceeds steadily.
Policy signals today skew cautious. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has emphasized the need to push inflation closer to target, with one report highlighting risks that inflation could exceed the Fed’s goal for several more years. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s surprise retirement early next year opens a personnel slot that could influence future policy contours. Meanwhile, the White House has warned that some October jobs and inflation releases may not be published due to the shutdown’s data disruptions, complicating near-term macro visibility even if Washington is on the verge of reopening. Private-sector labor indicators for late October from ADP point to softness, hinting at a cooler job market into year-end. Finally, a proposal from the administration to consider $2,000 “dividend” checks to most households underscores an evolving fiscal backdrop; such measures could buoy consumer demand but also add an inflationary impulse if enacted.
Equities and sectors: a measured step back
- SPY is off modestly at the open versus Wednesday’s close, indicating a pause after a strong stretch that saw the Dow hit a record earlier in the week. DIA is slightly lower relative to its prior close, consistent with a “giveback” after Tuesday’s value-led surge highlighted in several reports. Small caps (IWM) are trading softer as well, in line with the tendency for higher real yields and policy uncertainty to weigh on more rate-sensitive or domestically focused names at the open.
- Sector-wise among those quoted:
• Technology (XLK) is down versus its prior close (last trade near 292.52 vs. 293.92). That dovetails with the early-session pattern of modest tech underperformance as investors reassess rich AI-linked narratives against capital intensity and power constraints discussed across headlines.
• Financials (XLF) are edging slightly lower (53.56 vs. 53.67). Banks have provisioned less for troubled loans recently, which some interpret as a tentative positive, but investors remain cautious given macro uncertainty and the shutdown data blackout.
• Healthcare (XLV) is down at the open (151.96 vs. 152.82). Despite supportive single-name stories in the space, the sector is trading more with macro rates and defensiveness this morning.
• Energy (XLE) is fractionally lower (89.67 vs. 89.92) even as crude proxies firm; that divergence often resolves as the session develops and company-specific moves filter through, but it does speak to near-term positioning dynamics after a recent rebound.
A number of company and industry headlines color the sector picture. In technology, Cisco delivered an AI networking-driven beat alongside a legacy hardware refresh, reinforcing the case that networking and infrastructure beneficiaries can participate in AI spend even as questions linger around chip rollout cadence at peers. AMD’s ambitious projections at its investor day reignited debate about the breadth and durability of AI leadership and profits. IBM’s quantum roadmap, tied to new processors aimed at fault tolerance, sketches another long-tailed compute theme that could eventually intersect with classical infrastructure plays. At the same time, concerns around data center power availability, rising electricity prices, and project delays (as seen in separate data center stories) underscore the non-linear nature of AI infrastructure rollouts. That cocktail helps explain why XLK is giving back slightly this morning despite supportive pockets.
In media and consumer, Disney’s latest results show streaming progress offsetting other drags, consistent with a mixed read-through for broader Communications and Consumer Discretionary exposures. Starbucks faces labor-related disruptions tied to Red Cup Day strikes, which can inject short-term volatility into retail and restaurant cohorts. Paramount’s first report under new ownership landed well with Wall Street and speaks to the potential for execution and pricing changes to reset expectations. On the e-commerce front, JD.com beat conservative forecasts even as year-on-year earnings lagged, reflecting a backdrop where bar-setters matter as much as absolute growth. More broadly, investors are weighing how SNAP benefit processing delays might affect low-end consumer demand; retail cohorts sensitive to that program may see knock-on effects in the weeks ahead.
Autos and industrials remain in transition. Ford reiterated it cannot walk away from EVs despite ongoing losses, aligning with a capital allocation pivot many legacy automakers face. Toyota’s domestic battery investment signals continued onshoring and supply-chain fortification. In robotics and automation, commentary that “the robots have won” reflects a longer-term allocation theme beyond the near-term AI narrative, one that can favor industrial automation suppliers if capex remains healthy. These currents fit with this week’s rotation toward value and cyclicals; today’s softer open looks more like digestion than reversal.
Bonds: duration slips as long-end yields hold above 4%
Rates-sensitive ETFs are fractionally lower early: TLT trades near 89.82 vs. 90.12, IEF around 96.65 vs. 96.88, and SHY near 82.81 vs. 82.85. With the 10-year yield at ~4.13% and the 30-year around ~4.71%, the modest dip in prices fits a picture of contained but elevated nominal yields. The shutdown’s resolution should gradually restore economic data flow, but the immediate gap in official releases (as flagged by the White House) limits near-term confirmation of the ADP softness and other private indicators. Fed rhetoric emphasizing persistence in the inflation fight—alongside medium-term breakevens in the low 2s—supports the case for a cautious, data-reliant path rather than a rapid pivot.
Commodities: gold firm, oil bid, gas steady
Gold continues to find sponsorship as policy uncertainty unwinds, with GLD trading up versus the prior close (387.06 vs. 385.99). A MarketWatch piece noted that stocks and gold had been rallying together on hopes of reopening; once the government resumes, the correlation can weaken, but for now gold appears supported by both macro hedging demand and mixed data visibility.
Crude proxies are firmer, with USO around 70.44 vs. 69.79. Two supply-demand narratives are at play. First, the IEA’s latest view that oil and gas demand could keep growing on the current path through 2050 contrasts with prior “peak oil” expectations and is generally constructive for longer-dated demand assumptions. Second, Bloomberg reported a billion-barrel buildup at sea linked to sanctions stress and logistics, a development that can temporarily weigh on realized revenues for sanctioned producers even if barrels ultimately clear. Together, these pieces help explain crude’s resilience: the structural demand path looks firmer, while short-term supply frictions can boost time spreads and volatility. Silver is roughly flat to slightly softer (SLV 48.29 vs. 48.32), and broad commodities (DBC) are little changed versus the prior close.
Natural gas (UNG) is slightly higher (14.70 vs. 14.65). Beyond seasonal dynamics, ongoing debates about data center power needs and grid constraints feed into medium-term gas demand scenarios, though the morning move is modest and within recent ranges.
FX and crypto: euro steady, digital assets diverge
EURUSD is quoted near 1.1615; without a prior-day comparator provided, the early takeaway is stability rather than a directional call. Crypto shows a nuanced open: BTCUSD trades around 102,428, modestly above its reported open, while ETHUSD sits near 3,428, a bit below its open. Headlines indicate professional and wealthy investors still plan to boost crypto allocations even after recent price declines, while a double upgrade for Circle from a major bank offers a counterpoint to cautious sentiment around some crypto equities. As always, liquidity conditions around the equity open can amplify intraday crypto moves.
Headline risks and sector read-throughs
- Air travel and transportation: Airlines warned that cancellations may persist even after the shutdown ends as schedules get reset, a reminder that reopening does not instantly normalize operations. Delta’s CEO also underscored the political crosswinds the sector faced during the standoff.
- Tech and AI: Reports of significant AI infrastructure commitments, potential narrowing in AI stock winners, and data center power constraints form a complex backdrop for hardware, semis, and utilities. Investor positioning remains focused on tangible earnings leverage to AI spend and the timing of capacity ramps.
- Consumer and housing: Nearly 900,000 new homeowners are reportedly underwater on mortgages, signaling a more challenging housing tape even as rates have eased from prior peaks. Retail dynamics remain mixed, with targeted price cuts and cost actions at large chains and concerns about SNAP-related delays.
- Policy and litigation: A lawsuit alleging misuse of AI tools at a major platform company highlights regulatory and reputational risks in big tech. On the trade front, Supreme Court deliberations over tariff repayments could affect importers; any resolution that changes cash flows would ripple through earnings models.
Outlook: what to watch near-term
- House vote to end the shutdown: Passage would restore a baseline for federal operations. Markets will watch for the pace at which agencies resume data releases; near-term, some gaps may persist (the White House flagged potential non-release of October reports).
- Fed communication: With inflation still above target and market breakevens anchored, incremental guidance from Fed officials—including the policy balance between growth risks and inflation persistence—will set tone for rate-sensitive sectors and the curve.
- AI and infrastructure follow-through: After AMD’s projections and Cisco’s beat, watch whether networking, power, and memory beneficiaries see incremental order commentary. Any fresh updates on data center power availability and project timelines will matter for hardware and utilities alike.
- Energy flows: Oil’s floating storage dynamics and the IEA demand path will remain a focus for Energy (XLE). A continuation of USO’s strength could help close the early-session gap between commodity prices and energy equities.
- Consumer health: Updates on SNAP processing and any incremental fiscal headlines (like potential household checks) could sway staples, discounters, and quick-serve restaurants. Housing affordability stories bear watching for homebuilders and rate-sensitive small caps.
Bottom line
Today’s softer open looks like a routine consolidation within a broader rotation narrative that has benefited value and cyclicals, as long-end yields hold above 4% and the policy backdrop prepares to normalize post-shutdown. With commodities firming and medium-term inflation expectations contained, the near-term market path hinges on the return of data clarity, the trajectory of AI-related capital spending, and the evolution of consumer support programs. We will be watching whether sector divergences—tech softness against solid networking prints, energy equities lagging firmer crude, and gold strength amid rising equities—resolve into a more coherent leadership set as the day progresses.
Stocks opened a touch lower on Thursday as traders weighed the final steps to end the historic U.S. government shutdown, calibrated expectations for inflation and policy, and digested a firmer tone across key commodities. At the open, the major index ETFs are slightly in the red: SPY trades around 680.50 versus a prior close of 683.38, QQQ near 617.77 vs. 621.08, DIA around 481.58 vs. 482.76, and IWM near 241.76 vs. 243.64. The early tone reflects a modest giveback after a strong run in value and cyclicals noted this week, even as the policy backdrop looks set to stabilize once the House votes on a shutdown-ending bill later today.
Macro context is front and center. On the rates side, the latest Treasury curve snapshot shows the 2-year at 3.58%, 5-year at 3.72%, 10-year at 4.13%, and 30-year at 4.71%. The modestly higher long-end versus the belly leaves the curve still upward sloping from 10s to 30s, a configuration that can pressure duration-heavy bond proxies early in the session. September CPI remains elevated in level terms (headline CPI index at 324.368 and core at 330.542), and market-based inflation expectations are anchored in the low-2s for the medium to long run (about 2.36% for 5-year and 2.31% for 10-year breakevens; one-year expectations were not provided). That combination—price levels still high with medium-term expectations contained—helps explain why equities can digest higher nominal yields so long as growth remains adequate and policy normalization proceeds steadily.
Policy signals today skew cautious. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has emphasized the need to push inflation closer to target, with one report highlighting risks that inflation could exceed the Fed’s goal for several more years. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s surprise retirement early next year opens a personnel slot that could influence future policy contours. Meanwhile, the White House has warned that some October jobs and inflation releases may not be published due to the shutdown’s data disruptions, complicating near-term macro visibility even if Washington is on the verge of reopening. Private-sector labor indicators for late October from ADP point to softness, hinting at a cooler job market into year-end. Finally, a proposal from the administration to consider $2,000 “dividend” checks to most households underscores an evolving fiscal backdrop; such measures could buoy consumer demand but also add an inflationary impulse if enacted.
Equities and sectors: a measured step back
- SPY is off modestly at the open versus Wednesday’s close, indicating a pause after a strong stretch that saw the Dow hit a record earlier in the week. DIA is slightly lower relative to its prior close, consistent with a “giveback” after Tuesday’s value-led surge highlighted in several reports. Small caps (IWM) are trading softer as well, in line with the tendency for higher real yields and policy uncertainty to weigh on more rate-sensitive or domestically focused names at the open.
- Sector-wise among those quoted:
• Technology (XLK) is down versus its prior close (last trade near 292.52 vs. 293.92). That dovetails with the early-session pattern of modest tech underperformance as investors reassess rich AI-linked narratives against capital intensity and power constraints discussed across headlines.
• Financials (XLF) are edging slightly lower (53.56 vs. 53.67). Banks have provisioned less for troubled loans recently, which some interpret as a tentative positive, but investors remain cautious given macro uncertainty and the shutdown data blackout.
• Healthcare (XLV) is down at the open (151.96 vs. 152.82). Despite supportive single-name stories in the space, the sector is trading more with macro rates and defensiveness this morning.
• Energy (XLE) is fractionally lower (89.67 vs. 89.92) even as crude proxies firm; that divergence often resolves as the session develops and company-specific moves filter through, but it does speak to near-term positioning dynamics after a recent rebound.
A number of company and industry headlines color the sector picture. In technology, Cisco delivered an AI networking-driven beat alongside a legacy hardware refresh, reinforcing the case that networking and infrastructure beneficiaries can participate in AI spend even as questions linger around chip rollout cadence at peers. AMD’s ambitious projections at its investor day reignited debate about the breadth and durability of AI leadership and profits. IBM’s quantum roadmap, tied to new processors aimed at fault tolerance, sketches another long-tailed compute theme that could eventually intersect with classical infrastructure plays. At the same time, concerns around data center power availability, rising electricity prices, and project delays (as seen in separate data center stories) underscore the non-linear nature of AI infrastructure rollouts. That cocktail helps explain why XLK is giving back slightly this morning despite supportive pockets.
In media and consumer, Disney’s latest results show streaming progress offsetting other drags, consistent with a mixed read-through for broader Communications and Consumer Discretionary exposures. Starbucks faces labor-related disruptions tied to Red Cup Day strikes, which can inject short-term volatility into retail and restaurant cohorts. Paramount’s first report under new ownership landed well with Wall Street and speaks to the potential for execution and pricing changes to reset expectations. On the e-commerce front, JD.com beat conservative forecasts even as year-on-year earnings lagged, reflecting a backdrop where bar-setters matter as much as absolute growth. More broadly, investors are weighing how SNAP benefit processing delays might affect low-end consumer demand; retail cohorts sensitive to that program may see knock-on effects in the weeks ahead.
Autos and industrials remain in transition. Ford reiterated it cannot walk away from EVs despite ongoing losses, aligning with a capital allocation pivot many legacy automakers face. Toyota’s domestic battery investment signals continued onshoring and supply-chain fortification. In robotics and automation, commentary that “the robots have won” reflects a longer-term allocation theme beyond the near-term AI narrative, one that can favor industrial automation suppliers if capex remains healthy. These currents fit with this week’s rotation toward value and cyclicals; today’s softer open looks more like digestion than reversal.
Bonds: duration slips as long-end yields hold above 4%
Rates-sensitive ETFs are fractionally lower early: TLT trades near 89.82 vs. 90.12, IEF around 96.65 vs. 96.88, and SHY near 82.81 vs. 82.85. With the 10-year yield at ~4.13% and the 30-year around ~4.71%, the modest dip in prices fits a picture of contained but elevated nominal yields. The shutdown’s resolution should gradually restore economic data flow, but the immediate gap in official releases (as flagged by the White House) limits near-term confirmation of the ADP softness and other private indicators. Fed rhetoric emphasizing persistence in the inflation fight—alongside medium-term breakevens in the low 2s—supports the case for a cautious, data-reliant path rather than a rapid pivot.
Commodities: gold firm, oil bid, gas steady
Gold continues to find sponsorship as policy uncertainty unwinds, with GLD trading up versus the prior close (387.06 vs. 385.99). A MarketWatch piece noted that stocks and gold had been rallying together on hopes of reopening; once the government resumes, the correlation can weaken, but for now gold appears supported by both macro hedging demand and mixed data visibility.
Crude proxies are firmer, with USO around 70.44 vs. 69.79. Two supply-demand narratives are at play. First, the IEA’s latest view that oil and gas demand could keep growing on the current path through 2050 contrasts with prior “peak oil” expectations and is generally constructive for longer-dated demand assumptions. Second, Bloomberg reported a billion-barrel buildup at sea linked to sanctions stress and logistics, a development that can temporarily weigh on realized revenues for sanctioned producers even if barrels ultimately clear. Together, these pieces help explain crude’s resilience: the structural demand path looks firmer, while short-term supply frictions can boost time spreads and volatility. Silver is roughly flat to slightly softer (SLV 48.29 vs. 48.32), and broad commodities (DBC) are little changed versus the prior close.
Natural gas (UNG) is slightly higher (14.70 vs. 14.65). Beyond seasonal dynamics, ongoing debates about data center power needs and grid constraints feed into medium-term gas demand scenarios, though the morning move is modest and within recent ranges.
FX and crypto: euro steady, digital assets diverge
EURUSD is quoted near 1.1615; without a prior-day comparator provided, the early takeaway is stability rather than a directional call. Crypto shows a nuanced open: BTCUSD trades around 102,428, modestly above its reported open, while ETHUSD sits near 3,428, a bit below its open. Headlines indicate professional and wealthy investors still plan to boost crypto allocations even after recent price declines, while a double upgrade for Circle from a major bank offers a counterpoint to cautious sentiment around some crypto equities. As always, liquidity conditions around the equity open can amplify intraday crypto moves.
Headline risks and sector read-throughs
- Air travel and transportation: Airlines warned that cancellations may persist even after the shutdown ends as schedules get reset, a reminder that reopening does not instantly normalize operations. Delta’s CEO also underscored the political crosswinds the sector faced during the standoff.
- Tech and AI: Reports of significant AI infrastructure commitments, potential narrowing in AI stock winners, and data center power constraints form a complex backdrop for hardware, semis, and utilities. Investor positioning remains focused on tangible earnings leverage to AI spend and the timing of capacity ramps.
- Consumer and housing: Nearly 900,000 new homeowners are reportedly underwater on mortgages, signaling a more challenging housing tape even as rates have eased from prior peaks. Retail dynamics remain mixed, with targeted price cuts and cost actions at large chains and concerns about SNAP-related delays.
- Policy and litigation: A lawsuit alleging misuse of AI tools at a major platform company highlights regulatory and reputational risks in big tech. On the trade front, Supreme Court deliberations over tariff repayments could affect importers; any resolution that changes cash flows would ripple through earnings models.
Outlook: what to watch near-term
- House vote to end the shutdown: Passage would restore a baseline for federal operations. Markets will watch for the pace at which agencies resume data releases; near-term, some gaps may persist (the White House flagged potential non-release of October reports).
- Fed communication: With inflation still above target and market breakevens anchored, incremental guidance from Fed officials—including the policy balance between growth risks and inflation persistence—will set tone for rate-sensitive sectors and the curve.
- AI and infrastructure follow-through: After AMD’s projections and Cisco’s beat, watch whether networking, power, and memory beneficiaries see incremental order commentary. Any fresh updates on data center power availability and project timelines will matter for hardware and utilities alike.
- Energy flows: Oil’s floating storage dynamics and the IEA demand path will remain a focus for Energy (XLE). A continuation of USO’s strength could help close the early-session gap between commodity prices and energy equities.
- Consumer health: Updates on SNAP processing and any incremental fiscal headlines (like potential household checks) could sway staples, discounters, and quick-serve restaurants. Housing affordability stories bear watching for homebuilders and rate-sensitive small caps.
Bottom line
Today’s softer open looks like a routine consolidation within a broader rotation narrative that has benefited value and cyclicals, as long-end yields hold above 4% and the policy backdrop prepares to normalize post-shutdown. With commodities firming and medium-term inflation expectations contained, the near-term market path hinges on the return of data clarity, the trajectory of AI-related capital spending, and the evolution of consumer support programs. We will be watching whether sector divergences—tech softness against solid networking prints, energy equities lagging firmer crude, and gold strength amid rising equities—resolve into a more coherent leadership set as the day progresses.