State of Market: Midday 11/17/25
Midday markets lean lower as tech lags; defensive pockets firm while crypto extends its slide
Equities edge down ahead of key AI earnings and backlogged economic releases; long-end yields anchored near 4.1%–4.7%; gold softens, oil and silver tick up, euro slips vs. dollar, and Bitcoin remains under pressure
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Equities are softer at midday in New York, with the tape showing a modest, orderly drift lower after last week’s volatility. Major U.S. index proxies are down between roughly a half percent and nearly one percent, while sector performance reflects a rotation toward defensives. Treasuries are slightly bid on the day across the 7–20 year part of the curve, even as longer-term yields remain elevated in absolute terms. In commodities, gold is fractionally lower but silver and crude oil are up, and the dollar is firmer versus the euro. Digital assets are heavy, with Bitcoin and Ether trading below their session opens and sitting near intraday lows.
Macro backdrop: yields and inflation
The latest available Treasury yield snapshot (dated 2025-11-13) places the 2-year at 3.58%, 5-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.11% and 30-year at 4.70%. The curve remains positively sloped from 2s to 10s and 30s, which is supportive of a cautious risk posture: policy-sensitive front-end rates sit below long rates, but term premia and growth/inflation uncertainty keep the long end near the 4%–5% zone. Headlines late last week noted steadier yields as investors welcomed the end of the government shutdown, a tone that aligns with today’s gentle bid in intermediate and long-duration bond ETFs.
On inflation, the most recent CPI index level (September 2025) stands at 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542. While these are index levels rather than month-over-month percentages, they underscore that the price level remains elevated versus pre-pandemic baselines, keeping policy makers focused on disinflation progress. Market- and model-implied inflation expectations for October 2025 are contained: 5-year breakevens at 2.36%, 10-year at 2.31%, and the 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A model-based 1-year expectation of about 2.74% sits above the longer-dated measures (model 5-year at ~2.32%, model 10-year at ~2.29%, model 30-year at ~2.42%), consistent with the view that near-term inflation should run modestly above long-run anchors but remain generally well-contained. This configuration—anchored long-term expectations with slightly higher near-term prints—can coexist with elevated nominal yields and episodic valuation pressure in long-duration assets such as growth equities.
Equities: a mild risk-off tilt led by tech and cyclicals
By midday, broad U.S. equity ETFs are down modestly. SPY last traded at 668.68 versus a previous close of 671.93, off about 0.48%. The Nasdaq-100 proxy QQQ is at 605.92 against 608.86, down roughly 0.48% as well, reflecting heavier pressure in higher-duration technology shares. The Dow proxy DIA is at 469.46 versus 471.80, down about 0.50%, and small caps via IWM at 235.47 versus 237.48 are lower by roughly 0.85%, underperforming on the day.
The sector picture shows defensive leadership and growth/cyclical laggards. Technology (XLK) trades at 284.70 compared to 288.15 on Friday, down about 1.20%. Financials (XLF) at 51.93 versus 52.45 are lower by about 1.00%. Health care (XLV) is up, last at 152.72 vs. 151.83 (+0.59%), suggesting ongoing demand for defensives amid headline risk. One sector ETF object in today’s feed is labeled under XLE but carries the symbol XLU and last traded at 89.61 versus 88.76 on Friday, up about 0.96%. While the labeling is ambiguous, the direction is clear: that fund is bid relative to the prior close, consistent with defensive utilities strength or, if energy, a modest rebound alongside crude.
Earnings and narratives are a key driver of today’s tone. Investors are focused on the week’s marquee event: Nvidia’s results and outlook. Coverage notes what the chipmaker may need to say to reassure markets and frame demand into 2027, while additional headlines highlight prominent investors trimming AI exposure in recent weeks. The setup has contributed to heavier tape action in mega-cap tech, even as some strategists continue to frame AI as a secular opportunity and not a bubble. Meanwhile, a separate strategist view argues that a “Santa Flaws” rally could still have legs, while another raises concern that many assets look expensive, urging portfolio diversification. Taken together, the mix of optimism about the medium-term earnings path and caution about positioning and valuation helps explain today’s balanced, low-amplitude risk-off.
Sectors and themes in the news flow
- Alphabet/Google: Over the past few sessions, attention has centered on Berkshire Hathaway’s roughly $5 billion stake in Alphabet and on potential AI product catalysts. Those developments have supported the narrative that select mega-cap platforms retain strong secular drivers, even if the broader tech trade is recalibrating ahead of upcoming results.
- Autos and aerospace: Boeing reported fresh 777X orders from Emirates, with related engine orders at GE Aerospace. While we do not have BA/GE quotes in this feed, the news supports a constructive multi-year delivery and capex cycle in aerospace and industrial supply chains. In EVs, commentary around Tesla’s robotaxi and FSD roadmap underscores the optionality embedded in autonomy efforts. That said, other filings pointed to shifting positions among institutional investors in the EV complex.
- Health care: Novo Nordisk’s decision to offer $349/month direct-to-consumer pricing for GLP-1s (Wegovy, Ozempic) could support broader patient access and sustain GLP-1 category growth. Within today’s market, the health care sector ETF (XLV) is a relative winner.
- Energy: Macro coverage has emphasized both strategic supply decisions by integrated oil majors and geopolitical risks. A MarketWatch piece warns that any U.S. military strike on Venezuela could disrupt global supply. In the tape, crude (USO) is up modestly today, while the sector ETF object carrying an XLE label (symbol XLU) is also higher versus its prior close.
Bonds: a gentler bid as long-end yields hold range
Duration is modestly bid. TLT (20+ year Treasuries) is at 89.16 vs. 88.87, up about 0.32%. The intermediate 7–10 year proxy IEF is at 96.58 vs. 96.44, up roughly 0.15%. At the very front end, SHY (1–3 year Treasuries) is essentially flat to slightly lower at 82.82 vs. 82.83. Against the 10-year yield at 4.11% and the 30-year at 4.70% (from the latest snapshot), this price action looks like a small relief bid after shutdown-related stability in rates last week, without a clear directional break in the bigger macro picture.
Commodities: mixed precious metals, firmer crude, weaker gas
Gold, via GLD, is off to 374.58 from 375.96 (-0.37%), while silver (SLV) is modestly higher at 46.11 vs. 45.96 (+0.32%). Crosscurrents in precious metals are notable in the recent press: one view cautions that gold selling alongside equities and Bitcoin can be a sign of tightening liquidity and risk-off stress, while another highlights that gold holding above round-number milestones could support higher targets if fiscal and policy uncertainties persist. Today’s small downtick in GLD sits comfortably within that debate.
Oil is slightly firmer, with USO at 71.55 vs. 71.38 (+0.24%), amid a news backdrop that includes both strong order books in downstream industries and an elevated geopolitical risk premium tied to Venezuela. Broad commodities (DBC) are also up modestly at 23.02 vs. 22.97 (+0.20%). Natural gas (UNG) is weaker at 14.40 vs. 14.56 (-1.10%), reflecting ongoing seasonal and inventory dynamics.
FX and crypto: dollar firmer; crypto heavy
In foreign exchange, the euro is softer against the dollar. EURUSD marks at 1.1594, below its reported open of 1.1626, a decline of roughly 0.27%, consistent with a mild “risk-off, dollar-up” tone.
Crypto markets remain under pressure. BTCUSD marks around 92,369 versus an open near 95,043 (down ~2.8%), with the session low essentially at the mark. Ether (ETHUSD) trades around 3,027 versus a 3,184 open (down ~4.9%). Recent coverage ties the Bitcoin downdraft to heavier selling by long-term holders and “whales,” characterizing the flows as more profit-taking than panic, but also noting a reduced ability of the market to absorb supply. The narrative of a “bear market” phase and a six-month low remains intact per multiple reports, and aligns with today’s price action. For multi-asset investors, the key question is whether crypto’s weakness is idiosyncratic or symptomatic of broader liquidity and risk sentiment—an issue that will gain clarity as this week’s earnings and macro data hit.
Notable catalysts and positioning debates
- Nvidia earnings: Several pieces frame this as the biggest event of the week. Investors are looking for clarity not just on 2026–2027 demand and product cadence, but also on supply chain, customer concentration, and the sustainability of AI infrastructure capex. This focus helps explain today’s underperformance in XLK and QQQ as investors de-risk into the print.
- Alphabet positioning: Headlines around Berkshire Hathaway’s new stake and upcoming AI product catalysts underscore duration within mega-cap platforms that are not purely cyclical. This bifurcation—defensives and select mega-caps vs. the broader growth complex—continues to shape flows.
- Rates and liquidity: Coverage of the New York Fed’s engagement with dealers on the standing repo facility keeps attention on market plumbing. Combined with the end of the shutdown and a heavy data calendar, it argues for tactical vigilance in duration even as ETFs like TLT and IEF catch a bid today.
- Rotation and breadth: Commentaries highlight weak breadth and important technical levels the market must hold, while others point to a continuing rotation under the surface. Today’s sector scorecard—defensives firmer, tech and financials softer—fits that theme.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Earnings: Nvidia’s report and guidance midweek remains the pivotal micro catalyst for tech, AI infrastructure, and broader risk sentiment. Applied Materials’ commentary about a flatter first half and potential second-half acceleration in chips adds nuance to the calendar.
- Macro data: Backlogged and delayed economic data and the jobs picture are in focus this week, with investors weighing the trajectory of growth and inflation against the current 4.11%/4.70% 10s/30s yield backdrop.
- Policy and liquidity: Any further signals on the Fed’s policy path, the usage and calibration of the standing repo facility, and the pace of balance sheet normalization matter for both rates and equity multiples.
- Commodities and geopolitics: Oil’s sensitivity to Venezuela-related headlines bears watching; natural gas pricing remains a swing factor for energy-sensitive equities.
- Options and technicals: December 10 has been flagged by options strategists as a significant event cluster for markets; nearer term, breadth and the integrity of recent support levels are important, particularly after last week’s drawdown.
Risks
- AI/equity positioning risk: Concentrated leadership and insider selling headlines heighten the risk of unwind in parts of the AI trade if guidance underwhelms.
- Valuation risk: Prominent bond managers warn that multiple asset classes screen rich; higher real yields or shifting inflation expectations could compress multiples.
- Liquidity/tightening risk: Simultaneous weakness across equities, gold, and crypto—as some coverage observed last week—can flag liquidity stress.
- Geopolitical/supply risk: Any disruption tied to Venezuela could reverberate through fuels and refined products, lifting input costs.
- Breadth/technical risk: Poor market breadth and violated support levels can accelerate downside momentum if selling pressure reemerges.
Bottom line
At midday, the market’s stance is cautious but orderly: the major indices are off modestly, tech and financials are the drag, defensives are holding up, and rates are a touch firmer in price. Commodities and FX reflect a mild risk-off dollar bid, while crypto remains under pressure. With the week’s pivotal AI earnings and backlogged data ahead, investors appear content to wait for confirmation, keeping risk tightly managed and sector allocation tilting toward quality and defensives.
Equities are softer at midday in New York, with the tape showing a modest, orderly drift lower after last week’s volatility. Major U.S. index proxies are down between roughly a half percent and nearly one percent, while sector performance reflects a rotation toward defensives. Treasuries are slightly bid on the day across the 7–20 year part of the curve, even as longer-term yields remain elevated in absolute terms. In commodities, gold is fractionally lower but silver and crude oil are up, and the dollar is firmer versus the euro. Digital assets are heavy, with Bitcoin and Ether trading below their session opens and sitting near intraday lows.
Macro backdrop: yields and inflation
The latest available Treasury yield snapshot (dated 2025-11-13) places the 2-year at 3.58%, 5-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.11% and 30-year at 4.70%. The curve remains positively sloped from 2s to 10s and 30s, which is supportive of a cautious risk posture: policy-sensitive front-end rates sit below long rates, but term premia and growth/inflation uncertainty keep the long end near the 4%–5% zone. Headlines late last week noted steadier yields as investors welcomed the end of the government shutdown, a tone that aligns with today’s gentle bid in intermediate and long-duration bond ETFs.
On inflation, the most recent CPI index level (September 2025) stands at 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542. While these are index levels rather than month-over-month percentages, they underscore that the price level remains elevated versus pre-pandemic baselines, keeping policy makers focused on disinflation progress. Market- and model-implied inflation expectations for October 2025 are contained: 5-year breakevens at 2.36%, 10-year at 2.31%, and the 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A model-based 1-year expectation of about 2.74% sits above the longer-dated measures (model 5-year at ~2.32%, model 10-year at ~2.29%, model 30-year at ~2.42%), consistent with the view that near-term inflation should run modestly above long-run anchors but remain generally well-contained. This configuration—anchored long-term expectations with slightly higher near-term prints—can coexist with elevated nominal yields and episodic valuation pressure in long-duration assets such as growth equities.
Equities: a mild risk-off tilt led by tech and cyclicals
By midday, broad U.S. equity ETFs are down modestly. SPY last traded at 668.68 versus a previous close of 671.93, off about 0.48%. The Nasdaq-100 proxy QQQ is at 605.92 against 608.86, down roughly 0.48% as well, reflecting heavier pressure in higher-duration technology shares. The Dow proxy DIA is at 469.46 versus 471.80, down about 0.50%, and small caps via IWM at 235.47 versus 237.48 are lower by roughly 0.85%, underperforming on the day.
The sector picture shows defensive leadership and growth/cyclical laggards. Technology (XLK) trades at 284.70 compared to 288.15 on Friday, down about 1.20%. Financials (XLF) at 51.93 versus 52.45 are lower by about 1.00%. Health care (XLV) is up, last at 152.72 vs. 151.83 (+0.59%), suggesting ongoing demand for defensives amid headline risk. One sector ETF object in today’s feed is labeled under XLE but carries the symbol XLU and last traded at 89.61 versus 88.76 on Friday, up about 0.96%. While the labeling is ambiguous, the direction is clear: that fund is bid relative to the prior close, consistent with defensive utilities strength or, if energy, a modest rebound alongside crude.
Earnings and narratives are a key driver of today’s tone. Investors are focused on the week’s marquee event: Nvidia’s results and outlook. Coverage notes what the chipmaker may need to say to reassure markets and frame demand into 2027, while additional headlines highlight prominent investors trimming AI exposure in recent weeks. The setup has contributed to heavier tape action in mega-cap tech, even as some strategists continue to frame AI as a secular opportunity and not a bubble. Meanwhile, a separate strategist view argues that a “Santa Flaws” rally could still have legs, while another raises concern that many assets look expensive, urging portfolio diversification. Taken together, the mix of optimism about the medium-term earnings path and caution about positioning and valuation helps explain today’s balanced, low-amplitude risk-off.
Sectors and themes in the news flow
- Alphabet/Google: Over the past few sessions, attention has centered on Berkshire Hathaway’s roughly $5 billion stake in Alphabet and on potential AI product catalysts. Those developments have supported the narrative that select mega-cap platforms retain strong secular drivers, even if the broader tech trade is recalibrating ahead of upcoming results.
- Autos and aerospace: Boeing reported fresh 777X orders from Emirates, with related engine orders at GE Aerospace. While we do not have BA/GE quotes in this feed, the news supports a constructive multi-year delivery and capex cycle in aerospace and industrial supply chains. In EVs, commentary around Tesla’s robotaxi and FSD roadmap underscores the optionality embedded in autonomy efforts. That said, other filings pointed to shifting positions among institutional investors in the EV complex.
- Health care: Novo Nordisk’s decision to offer $349/month direct-to-consumer pricing for GLP-1s (Wegovy, Ozempic) could support broader patient access and sustain GLP-1 category growth. Within today’s market, the health care sector ETF (XLV) is a relative winner.
- Energy: Macro coverage has emphasized both strategic supply decisions by integrated oil majors and geopolitical risks. A MarketWatch piece warns that any U.S. military strike on Venezuela could disrupt global supply. In the tape, crude (USO) is up modestly today, while the sector ETF object carrying an XLE label (symbol XLU) is also higher versus its prior close.
Bonds: a gentler bid as long-end yields hold range
Duration is modestly bid. TLT (20+ year Treasuries) is at 89.16 vs. 88.87, up about 0.32%. The intermediate 7–10 year proxy IEF is at 96.58 vs. 96.44, up roughly 0.15%. At the very front end, SHY (1–3 year Treasuries) is essentially flat to slightly lower at 82.82 vs. 82.83. Against the 10-year yield at 4.11% and the 30-year at 4.70% (from the latest snapshot), this price action looks like a small relief bid after shutdown-related stability in rates last week, without a clear directional break in the bigger macro picture.
Commodities: mixed precious metals, firmer crude, weaker gas
Gold, via GLD, is off to 374.58 from 375.96 (-0.37%), while silver (SLV) is modestly higher at 46.11 vs. 45.96 (+0.32%). Crosscurrents in precious metals are notable in the recent press: one view cautions that gold selling alongside equities and Bitcoin can be a sign of tightening liquidity and risk-off stress, while another highlights that gold holding above round-number milestones could support higher targets if fiscal and policy uncertainties persist. Today’s small downtick in GLD sits comfortably within that debate.
Oil is slightly firmer, with USO at 71.55 vs. 71.38 (+0.24%), amid a news backdrop that includes both strong order books in downstream industries and an elevated geopolitical risk premium tied to Venezuela. Broad commodities (DBC) are also up modestly at 23.02 vs. 22.97 (+0.20%). Natural gas (UNG) is weaker at 14.40 vs. 14.56 (-1.10%), reflecting ongoing seasonal and inventory dynamics.
FX and crypto: dollar firmer; crypto heavy
In foreign exchange, the euro is softer against the dollar. EURUSD marks at 1.1594, below its reported open of 1.1626, a decline of roughly 0.27%, consistent with a mild “risk-off, dollar-up” tone.
Crypto markets remain under pressure. BTCUSD marks around 92,369 versus an open near 95,043 (down ~2.8%), with the session low essentially at the mark. Ether (ETHUSD) trades around 3,027 versus a 3,184 open (down ~4.9%). Recent coverage ties the Bitcoin downdraft to heavier selling by long-term holders and “whales,” characterizing the flows as more profit-taking than panic, but also noting a reduced ability of the market to absorb supply. The narrative of a “bear market” phase and a six-month low remains intact per multiple reports, and aligns with today’s price action. For multi-asset investors, the key question is whether crypto’s weakness is idiosyncratic or symptomatic of broader liquidity and risk sentiment—an issue that will gain clarity as this week’s earnings and macro data hit.
Notable catalysts and positioning debates
- Nvidia earnings: Several pieces frame this as the biggest event of the week. Investors are looking for clarity not just on 2026–2027 demand and product cadence, but also on supply chain, customer concentration, and the sustainability of AI infrastructure capex. This focus helps explain today’s underperformance in XLK and QQQ as investors de-risk into the print.
- Alphabet positioning: Headlines around Berkshire Hathaway’s new stake and upcoming AI product catalysts underscore duration within mega-cap platforms that are not purely cyclical. This bifurcation—defensives and select mega-caps vs. the broader growth complex—continues to shape flows.
- Rates and liquidity: Coverage of the New York Fed’s engagement with dealers on the standing repo facility keeps attention on market plumbing. Combined with the end of the shutdown and a heavy data calendar, it argues for tactical vigilance in duration even as ETFs like TLT and IEF catch a bid today.
- Rotation and breadth: Commentaries highlight weak breadth and important technical levels the market must hold, while others point to a continuing rotation under the surface. Today’s sector scorecard—defensives firmer, tech and financials softer—fits that theme.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Earnings: Nvidia’s report and guidance midweek remains the pivotal micro catalyst for tech, AI infrastructure, and broader risk sentiment. Applied Materials’ commentary about a flatter first half and potential second-half acceleration in chips adds nuance to the calendar.
- Macro data: Backlogged and delayed economic data and the jobs picture are in focus this week, with investors weighing the trajectory of growth and inflation against the current 4.11%/4.70% 10s/30s yield backdrop.
- Policy and liquidity: Any further signals on the Fed’s policy path, the usage and calibration of the standing repo facility, and the pace of balance sheet normalization matter for both rates and equity multiples.
- Commodities and geopolitics: Oil’s sensitivity to Venezuela-related headlines bears watching; natural gas pricing remains a swing factor for energy-sensitive equities.
- Options and technicals: December 10 has been flagged by options strategists as a significant event cluster for markets; nearer term, breadth and the integrity of recent support levels are important, particularly after last week’s drawdown.
Risks
- AI/equity positioning risk: Concentrated leadership and insider selling headlines heighten the risk of unwind in parts of the AI trade if guidance underwhelms.
- Valuation risk: Prominent bond managers warn that multiple asset classes screen rich; higher real yields or shifting inflation expectations could compress multiples.
- Liquidity/tightening risk: Simultaneous weakness across equities, gold, and crypto—as some coverage observed last week—can flag liquidity stress.
- Geopolitical/supply risk: Any disruption tied to Venezuela could reverberate through fuels and refined products, lifting input costs.
- Breadth/technical risk: Poor market breadth and violated support levels can accelerate downside momentum if selling pressure reemerges.
Bottom line
At midday, the market’s stance is cautious but orderly: the major indices are off modestly, tech and financials are the drag, defensives are holding up, and rates are a touch firmer in price. Commodities and FX reflect a mild risk-off dollar bid, while crypto remains under pressure. With the week’s pivotal AI earnings and backlogged data ahead, investors appear content to wait for confirmation, keeping risk tightly managed and sector allocation tilting toward quality and defensives.