State of Market: Midday 11/13/25
Midday market: Tech-led pullback as yields stay elevated; dollar softens vs euro, oil and gas edge higher
SPY and QQQ trade lower versus Wednesday’s close, small caps lag; bond ETFs slip as the curve steepens from 2s to 30s; gold and silver ease while crude and natural gas firm; Bitcoin and Ether retreat.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Equities are under pressure at midday on Thursday, with selling concentrated in large-cap technology and small caps as investors reassess risk following a string of AI- and value-related headlines and ongoing macro crosscurrents. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) is trading below Wednesday’s close, the Nasdaq-100 proxy (QQQ) is underperforming on broad tech weakness, while the Dow proxy (DIA) is modestly lower after notching a record earlier in the week. Small caps (IWM) are lagging most among the major U.S. equity proxies. Sector leadership is mixed: technology is the weakest of the quoted groups, energy is slightly lower despite firmer crude, and healthcare is one of the few pockets in the green.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain elevated across the curve. The 10-year sits at 4.13%, with the 2-year at 3.58%, the 5-year at 3.72%, and the 30-year at 4.71%. The profile is upward sloping from the 2-year to the long end, indicative of a still-elevated term premium and a market that hasn’t fully priced a rapid easing path. The current CPI index reading (headline 324.37; core 330.54 for September) underscores progress from earlier peaks but remains above the pre-pandemic trend.
Inflation expectations are relatively anchored by market measures: 5-year breakeven around 2.36% and 10-year near 2.31%, with model-based 1-year expectations closer to the mid-2s. That mix—anchored medium- to long-term expectations with somewhat firmer near-term—helps explain a curve that rewards duration less than in prior cycles and a risk appetite that oscillates as investors parse each sector’s earnings power under a higher-for-longer cost of capital.
Equities and sectors
All four major U.S. equity proxies are lower on the session. SPY last traded near 672.73 versus a previous close of 683.38, down roughly 1.6% midday. QQQ is near 607.78 from 621.08, lower by about 2.1%, the day’s notable underperformer. DIA is around 476.91 versus 482.76, down about 1.2%. Small caps are leading the decline: IWM trades near 237.57 versus 243.64, down approximately 2.5%.
Within sectors, the technology ETF (XLK) is the laggard among those quoted, at 285.95 versus 293.92 (down about 2.7%). Financials (XLF) are softer at 53.25 versus 53.67 (off roughly 0.8%). Energy (XLE) is slightly lower around 89.41 versus 89.92 (down about 0.6%) despite firmer crude benchmarks. Healthcare (XLV) is a relative bright spot, up near 153.44 versus 152.82 (about +0.4%). The sector mix is consistent with a session defined by higher real rates and factor rotation: long-duration growth is most sensitive, defensives fare better, and cyclicals are mixed.
Earnings and thematic currents from today’s headlines add nuance to sector price action. On the positive side for networking and legacy hardware, Cisco’s beat and guidance improvement tied to AI-related networking demand and a multi-billion-dollar refresh cycle suggest that AI capex is broadening beyond GPUs into data center plumbing and core infrastructure. On the semiconductor front, Morgan Stanley’s endorsement of Micron as a top pick highlights a tightening DRAM backdrop and a cyclical upswing in memory pricing—key inputs to AI systems. At the same time, an analyst call framing Nvidia as set up well into next week’s earnings underscores how expectations remain high for leading-edge compute, even as recent stock performance has eased the near-term bar.
Meta drew a “best idea” label from a sell-side analyst who argued that AI-driven ad improvements can out-earn rising capex—reinforcing that within megacap tech, balance sheets and monetization flywheels matter as much as roadmap ambition. Outside the U.S., JD.com rallied on results that topped conservative expectations, a reminder that earnings revisions and sentiment resets can matter as much as absolute growth rates in a challenging macro environment.
Conversely, the headlines also capture emerging costs and policy overhangs. Utilities and power-exposed firms face scrutiny over electricity prices tied to AI data center growth in major grids. Automotive and transportation remain in focus: Ford reiterated that it cannot walk away from EVs despite near-term losses; Waymo advancing driverless rides onto highways signals continued autonomous momentum. Labor dynamics are front and center, with striking Boeing defense workers voting on a new contract and Starbucks baristas staging actions in dozens of cities, adding to a backdrop of ongoing wage and operational complexity in select industries.
Bonds
Treasury-focused ETFs are modestly lower, consistent with firmer yields. Long duration (TLT) trades around 89.66 versus 90.12 (down about 0.5%). Intermediate duration (IEF) is near 96.72 versus 96.88 (off roughly 0.2%). Short Treasurys (SHY) are little changed at 82.83 versus 82.85 (fractionally lower). The 10-year yield at 4.13% and the 30-year near 4.71% point to continued term premium, while anchored 5- and 10-year inflation expectations keep real yields in focus for equity valuations. A MarketWatch piece citing BNY’s view on potential Fed liquidity support through year-end highlights a known seasonal risk: funding pressures often rise into December, which can translate into rate and cross-asset volatility if not offset by central bank operations.
Commodities
The commodity complex is mixed at midday. Gold (GLD) is slightly lower at 385.30 versus 385.99 (down about 0.2%) and silver (SLV) is near 48.03 versus 48.32 (down around 0.6%). The drift lower in precious metals alongside higher yields is consistent with standard rate-sensitive behavior.
Energy is firmer at the front: U.S. Oil Fund (USO) is higher at 70.10 versus 69.79 (up roughly 0.4%), while natural gas (UNG) is stronger at 14.93 versus 14.65 (up about 1.9%). Broader commodities (DBC) are fractionally lower near 22.99 versus 23.04. A Bloomberg report highlighting a billion-barrel buildup of oil at sea tied to sanctions stress and potential oversupply adds a counterweight to near-term gains: inventory overhangs can cap rallies even as geopolitical flows and seasonal demand ebb and flow. Meanwhile, a separate report that the IEA now sees oil and gas demand growing through 2050 on current trajectories, as EV adoption misses earlier estimates, supports the notion that energy’s structural demand base may be stickier than prior consensus—though the path will be lumpy given policy, supply, and inventory dynamics.
FX and crypto
In foreign exchange, the euro is firmer versus the dollar. EUR/USD marks around 1.1644 compared with an open near 1.1580, a modest gain that aligns with slightly easier dollar conditions into midday. A softer dollar can provide some cushion to commodities and non-U.S. risk assets, though today’s precious metals move is dominated by rates.
Crypto is weaker. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks around 98,957, below an open near 102,090 and well off its session high above 104,000. Ether (ETHUSD) trades near 3,234 versus an open around 3,482, also below session highs. A combination of fading momentum and macro rate sensitivity appears to be pressuring the complex intraday, even as a separate survey note suggests that professional and high-net-worth investors still plan to increase crypto allocations over time.
Policy, labor, and the shutdown endgame
Multiple reports suggest the historic U.S. government shutdown may end as soon as today, pending a House vote and the President’s signature. Markets have largely treated reopening as a modest positive for clarity—especially for air travel operations, social programs, and the release of economic data that were at risk of delay or non-publication. Ancillary headlines note that flight disruptions have already eased and that airlines saw themselves as a “political football” during negotiations. Separately, a Federal Reserve leadership transition is brewing with the early-2026 retirement announcement of the Atlanta Fed president, while a MarketWatch profile of the Cleveland Fed president frames a more hawkish stance against inflation; together these pieces reinforce that policy communication and personnel are in focus into year-end.
Company themes from the tape and headlines
- Semiconductors/memory: Anointing Micron as a top pick amid rising DRAM prices speaks to the breadth of AI-driven demand—compute needs pull through both logic and memory, with memory’s cyclical leverage notable when shortages emerge.
- AI infrastructure: Nvidia’s setup into earnings and Cisco’s AI networking beat point to continued buildout of the entire stack—from GPUs and interconnect to switches and legacy refresh cycles.
- Platforms and advertising: Meta’s “best idea” call highlights AI’s monetization via ad efficacy and the capacity to out-earn rising capex when engagement and measurement improve.
- Consumer and services: JD.com’s beat vs. lowered expectations underscores that revisions matter as much as prints. Separate notes on SNAP payment delays risk and Starbucks labor activity illustrate ongoing operational and policy sensitivities for consumer-facing companies.
- Autos and autonomy: Ford’s EV stance and Waymo’s highway milestone indicate that technology adoption persists, even as cost curves, regulation, and infrastructure (including power pricing) shape the pace.
Bottom line at midday
The session’s character is a classic higher-yield, lower-duration-equity day: tech and small caps lead to the downside, defensives outperform, bond ETFs slip, and commodities show a split with energy firmer and metals softer. The euro’s intraday strength versus the dollar offers only a modest offset. Headlines continue to revolve around AI’s capex cascade, sector-specific labor dynamics, and the practicalities of post-shutdown normalization in data and operations. Into the afternoon, positioning and micro catalysts—particularly in semiconductors and mega-cap growth—are likely to dictate whether indexes stabilize or extend declines.
What to watch next
- Mega-cap tech catalysts: Nvidia’s earnings next week are a key litmus test for AI demand visibility and supply timelines; any commentary on networking, memory, and software monetization will ripple across the stack.
- Policy and liquidity: Confirmation of the shutdown’s end and any signals of Federal Reserve liquidity support into year-end could influence funding markets and, by extension, risk pricing.
- Energy balances: The interplay between seaborne inventory overhangs, sanctions, and IEA demand revisions will be important for energy equities and inflation expectations.
- Data flow: As economic data schedules normalize post-shutdown, investors will look for confirmation that inflation expectations remain anchored and that growth is cooling without cracking.
Risks
- Year-end funding and liquidity strains that spark rate and cross-asset volatility if not met with sufficient central bank operations.
- Policy uncertainty around tariffs, fiscal transfers, or energy regulation that could alter earnings trajectories or consumption.
- AI capex concentration risk, where spending narrows to fewer winners, pressuring broader tech multiples.
- Energy market dislocations tied to sanctions or inventory buildups that whipsaw inflation expectations.
- Labor actions and wage pressures that compress margins in consumer and industrial verticals.
Equities are under pressure at midday on Thursday, with selling concentrated in large-cap technology and small caps as investors reassess risk following a string of AI- and value-related headlines and ongoing macro crosscurrents. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) is trading below Wednesday’s close, the Nasdaq-100 proxy (QQQ) is underperforming on broad tech weakness, while the Dow proxy (DIA) is modestly lower after notching a record earlier in the week. Small caps (IWM) are lagging most among the major U.S. equity proxies. Sector leadership is mixed: technology is the weakest of the quoted groups, energy is slightly lower despite firmer crude, and healthcare is one of the few pockets in the green.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain elevated across the curve. The 10-year sits at 4.13%, with the 2-year at 3.58%, the 5-year at 3.72%, and the 30-year at 4.71%. The profile is upward sloping from the 2-year to the long end, indicative of a still-elevated term premium and a market that hasn’t fully priced a rapid easing path. The current CPI index reading (headline 324.37; core 330.54 for September) underscores progress from earlier peaks but remains above the pre-pandemic trend.
Inflation expectations are relatively anchored by market measures: 5-year breakeven around 2.36% and 10-year near 2.31%, with model-based 1-year expectations closer to the mid-2s. That mix—anchored medium- to long-term expectations with somewhat firmer near-term—helps explain a curve that rewards duration less than in prior cycles and a risk appetite that oscillates as investors parse each sector’s earnings power under a higher-for-longer cost of capital.
Equities and sectors
All four major U.S. equity proxies are lower on the session. SPY last traded near 672.73 versus a previous close of 683.38, down roughly 1.6% midday. QQQ is near 607.78 from 621.08, lower by about 2.1%, the day’s notable underperformer. DIA is around 476.91 versus 482.76, down about 1.2%. Small caps are leading the decline: IWM trades near 237.57 versus 243.64, down approximately 2.5%.
Within sectors, the technology ETF (XLK) is the laggard among those quoted, at 285.95 versus 293.92 (down about 2.7%). Financials (XLF) are softer at 53.25 versus 53.67 (off roughly 0.8%). Energy (XLE) is slightly lower around 89.41 versus 89.92 (down about 0.6%) despite firmer crude benchmarks. Healthcare (XLV) is a relative bright spot, up near 153.44 versus 152.82 (about +0.4%). The sector mix is consistent with a session defined by higher real rates and factor rotation: long-duration growth is most sensitive, defensives fare better, and cyclicals are mixed.
Earnings and thematic currents from today’s headlines add nuance to sector price action. On the positive side for networking and legacy hardware, Cisco’s beat and guidance improvement tied to AI-related networking demand and a multi-billion-dollar refresh cycle suggest that AI capex is broadening beyond GPUs into data center plumbing and core infrastructure. On the semiconductor front, Morgan Stanley’s endorsement of Micron as a top pick highlights a tightening DRAM backdrop and a cyclical upswing in memory pricing—key inputs to AI systems. At the same time, an analyst call framing Nvidia as set up well into next week’s earnings underscores how expectations remain high for leading-edge compute, even as recent stock performance has eased the near-term bar.
Meta drew a “best idea” label from a sell-side analyst who argued that AI-driven ad improvements can out-earn rising capex—reinforcing that within megacap tech, balance sheets and monetization flywheels matter as much as roadmap ambition. Outside the U.S., JD.com rallied on results that topped conservative expectations, a reminder that earnings revisions and sentiment resets can matter as much as absolute growth rates in a challenging macro environment.
Conversely, the headlines also capture emerging costs and policy overhangs. Utilities and power-exposed firms face scrutiny over electricity prices tied to AI data center growth in major grids. Automotive and transportation remain in focus: Ford reiterated that it cannot walk away from EVs despite near-term losses; Waymo advancing driverless rides onto highways signals continued autonomous momentum. Labor dynamics are front and center, with striking Boeing defense workers voting on a new contract and Starbucks baristas staging actions in dozens of cities, adding to a backdrop of ongoing wage and operational complexity in select industries.
Bonds
Treasury-focused ETFs are modestly lower, consistent with firmer yields. Long duration (TLT) trades around 89.66 versus 90.12 (down about 0.5%). Intermediate duration (IEF) is near 96.72 versus 96.88 (off roughly 0.2%). Short Treasurys (SHY) are little changed at 82.83 versus 82.85 (fractionally lower). The 10-year yield at 4.13% and the 30-year near 4.71% point to continued term premium, while anchored 5- and 10-year inflation expectations keep real yields in focus for equity valuations. A MarketWatch piece citing BNY’s view on potential Fed liquidity support through year-end highlights a known seasonal risk: funding pressures often rise into December, which can translate into rate and cross-asset volatility if not offset by central bank operations.
Commodities
The commodity complex is mixed at midday. Gold (GLD) is slightly lower at 385.30 versus 385.99 (down about 0.2%) and silver (SLV) is near 48.03 versus 48.32 (down around 0.6%). The drift lower in precious metals alongside higher yields is consistent with standard rate-sensitive behavior.
Energy is firmer at the front: U.S. Oil Fund (USO) is higher at 70.10 versus 69.79 (up roughly 0.4%), while natural gas (UNG) is stronger at 14.93 versus 14.65 (up about 1.9%). Broader commodities (DBC) are fractionally lower near 22.99 versus 23.04. A Bloomberg report highlighting a billion-barrel buildup of oil at sea tied to sanctions stress and potential oversupply adds a counterweight to near-term gains: inventory overhangs can cap rallies even as geopolitical flows and seasonal demand ebb and flow. Meanwhile, a separate report that the IEA now sees oil and gas demand growing through 2050 on current trajectories, as EV adoption misses earlier estimates, supports the notion that energy’s structural demand base may be stickier than prior consensus—though the path will be lumpy given policy, supply, and inventory dynamics.
FX and crypto
In foreign exchange, the euro is firmer versus the dollar. EUR/USD marks around 1.1644 compared with an open near 1.1580, a modest gain that aligns with slightly easier dollar conditions into midday. A softer dollar can provide some cushion to commodities and non-U.S. risk assets, though today’s precious metals move is dominated by rates.
Crypto is weaker. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks around 98,957, below an open near 102,090 and well off its session high above 104,000. Ether (ETHUSD) trades near 3,234 versus an open around 3,482, also below session highs. A combination of fading momentum and macro rate sensitivity appears to be pressuring the complex intraday, even as a separate survey note suggests that professional and high-net-worth investors still plan to increase crypto allocations over time.
Policy, labor, and the shutdown endgame
Multiple reports suggest the historic U.S. government shutdown may end as soon as today, pending a House vote and the President’s signature. Markets have largely treated reopening as a modest positive for clarity—especially for air travel operations, social programs, and the release of economic data that were at risk of delay or non-publication. Ancillary headlines note that flight disruptions have already eased and that airlines saw themselves as a “political football” during negotiations. Separately, a Federal Reserve leadership transition is brewing with the early-2026 retirement announcement of the Atlanta Fed president, while a MarketWatch profile of the Cleveland Fed president frames a more hawkish stance against inflation; together these pieces reinforce that policy communication and personnel are in focus into year-end.
Company themes from the tape and headlines
- Semiconductors/memory: Anointing Micron as a top pick amid rising DRAM prices speaks to the breadth of AI-driven demand—compute needs pull through both logic and memory, with memory’s cyclical leverage notable when shortages emerge.
- AI infrastructure: Nvidia’s setup into earnings and Cisco’s AI networking beat point to continued buildout of the entire stack—from GPUs and interconnect to switches and legacy refresh cycles.
- Platforms and advertising: Meta’s “best idea” call highlights AI’s monetization via ad efficacy and the capacity to out-earn rising capex when engagement and measurement improve.
- Consumer and services: JD.com’s beat vs. lowered expectations underscores that revisions matter as much as prints. Separate notes on SNAP payment delays risk and Starbucks labor activity illustrate ongoing operational and policy sensitivities for consumer-facing companies.
- Autos and autonomy: Ford’s EV stance and Waymo’s highway milestone indicate that technology adoption persists, even as cost curves, regulation, and infrastructure (including power pricing) shape the pace.
Bottom line at midday
The session’s character is a classic higher-yield, lower-duration-equity day: tech and small caps lead to the downside, defensives outperform, bond ETFs slip, and commodities show a split with energy firmer and metals softer. The euro’s intraday strength versus the dollar offers only a modest offset. Headlines continue to revolve around AI’s capex cascade, sector-specific labor dynamics, and the practicalities of post-shutdown normalization in data and operations. Into the afternoon, positioning and micro catalysts—particularly in semiconductors and mega-cap growth—are likely to dictate whether indexes stabilize or extend declines.
What to watch next
- Mega-cap tech catalysts: Nvidia’s earnings next week are a key litmus test for AI demand visibility and supply timelines; any commentary on networking, memory, and software monetization will ripple across the stack.
- Policy and liquidity: Confirmation of the shutdown’s end and any signals of Federal Reserve liquidity support into year-end could influence funding markets and, by extension, risk pricing.
- Energy balances: The interplay between seaborne inventory overhangs, sanctions, and IEA demand revisions will be important for energy equities and inflation expectations.
- Data flow: As economic data schedules normalize post-shutdown, investors will look for confirmation that inflation expectations remain anchored and that growth is cooling without cracking.
Risks
- Year-end funding and liquidity strains that spark rate and cross-asset volatility if not met with sufficient central bank operations.
- Policy uncertainty around tariffs, fiscal transfers, or energy regulation that could alter earnings trajectories or consumption.
- AI capex concentration risk, where spending narrows to fewer winners, pressuring broader tech multiples.
- Energy market dislocations tied to sanctions or inventory buildups that whipsaw inflation expectations.
- Labor actions and wage pressures that compress margins in consumer and industrial verticals.