State of Market: Midday 11/14/25
Midday market steadies as tech outperforms; oil climbs, long bonds lag
SPY and QQQ edge higher while the Dow slips; oil extends gains on geopolitical risks and supply headlines. Higher long-end yields pressure duration and precious metals; crypto remains bifurcated with Bitcoin weak and Ether firmer.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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U.S. stocks are stabilizing into the early afternoon after Thursday’s broad selloff, with leadership tilting back toward large-cap technology. At 1:30 p.m. ET, SPY prints 673.00 versus a 672.04 prior close (about +0.14%), and QQQ trades 610.05 versus 608.40 (+0.27%). The Dow proxy DIA lags at 472.66 versus 474.74 (−0.44%), while small caps via IWM improve to 237.85 from 236.79 (+0.45%). The pattern suggests a modest risk-on skew centered in tech and select cyclicals, offset by softness in some blue chips and interest-rate sensitives.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain elevated at the long end. The most recent curve snapshot shows the 10-year at 4.08% and the 30-year at 4.67%, versus 3.56% on the 2-year and 3.68% on the 5-year. That re-steepened profile aligns with reports that yields rose as investors cheered the end of the government shutdown, a dynamic noted in CNBC coverage. Against that setup, long-duration bonds are under pressure midday (see TLT below), consistent with the higher long-end yield levels.
On inflation, the latest CPI index level sits at 324.368, with core at 330.542 (September readings). While those are levels rather than change rates, market-based inflation expectations remain relatively anchored: 5-year at about 2.36%, 10-year around 2.31%, and the 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A 1-year model estimate near 2.74% reflects lingering near-term price stickiness. The combination—moderate long-run expectations with a firmer 1-year outlook—maps to a “higher for longer at the long end” narrative even if the policy path is data dependent. Uncertainty is heightened by the shutdown’s data fallout; the White House has warned October jobs and inflation reports may never be released, leaving a temporary information gap that can amplify volatility around incoming private and market-based indicators.
Equities: stabilization led by tech; Dow lags
Broad indices are mixed to modestly higher by midday. SPY’s +0.14% and QQQ’s +0.27% gains indicate some appetite to reengage with growth after yesterday’s weakness. The DIA’s −0.44% shows some drag among select blue chips, while IWM’s +0.45% stands out as constructive for breadth at the margin.
Sectors are uneven. The technology sector entry (XLK) is firm at 288.98 versus 286.59 (+0.83%), outpacing the market and echoing a run of AI- and semiconductor-adjacent headlines. Cisco’s upbeat print and guidance tied to AI networking, highlighted by MarketWatch, reinforces the notion that infrastructure spending tied to AI remains resilient. At the same time, the semiconductor capital equipment outlook is nuanced. Applied Materials’ guidance didn’t impress some observers, with commentary pointing to a relatively flat first half next year before a potential AI- and memory-driven acceleration later in the year. Compounding the split sentiment, Nvidia remains in focus ahead of next week’s earnings, with at least one sell-rating analyst maintaining caution; elsewhere, other analysis argues the setup is constructive. The net effect is supportive for XLK today, but investors are discriminating within the AI complex.
Healthcare (XLV) is slightly softer at 152.42 versus 152.74 (−0.21%). Even so, the sector remains active on the corporate side: MarketWatch reports Merck’s agreement to acquire Cidara Therapeutics for $9.2 billion as it navigates a long-telegraphed Keytruda patent cliff and competitive shifts around Gardasil. M&A can provide idiosyncratic support for subsectors despite broader index churn.
Financials (XLF) are lagging at 52.65 versus 52.98 (−0.62%). The underperformance arrives even as the curve steepens at the long end; today’s move likely reflects positioning and stock-specific factors rather than a clean macro read-through. Energy (XLE entry) is slightly higher at 88.95 versus 88.68 (+0.31%), consistent with firmer crude (USO) and supply risk headlines (see Commodities below). Retail is in the news with leadership changes: Walmart’s long-time CEO Doug McMillon is set to retire, with John Furner stepping in, a reminder that C-suite transitions can influence near-term sentiment and execution narratives in consumer staples and discretionary alike.
Breadth remains a watch item. Several strategist pieces flagged poor breadth during recent advances and identified levels that “must not be violated.” While we are not given objective breadth stats here, the rotation within sectors—tech up, health care and financials mixed—supports the idea of a market searching for a more durable leadership handoff into year-end.
Bonds: duration under pressure
Bond proxies reflect long-end weakness. TLT trades at 88.96 versus 89.38 (−0.48%), and IEF is at 96.50 versus 96.60 (−0.11%). SHY is essentially flat to slightly higher at 82.81 versus 82.80 (+0.02%). The pattern maps to the yield snapshot—higher long-end rates weighing on duration while the very front end holds steady. For equity investors, that mix tends to compress multiples on long-duration growth when the backup in yields is sharp; today, the modest rise and supportive AI newsflow are allowing tech to outperform despite duration headwinds.
Commodities: oil up on risk; precious metals slip
Crude oil is firmer, with USO at 71.72 versus 69.85 (+2.67%). The bid coincides with risk factors flagged in the news flow: MarketWatch highlights concerns that any U.S. military action against Venezuela—holder of the world’s largest oil reserves—could impair fuel supplies and roil the global oil market. Separately, the IEA noted downside risks to Russia’s output stemming from U.S. sanctions enforcement. Together, these raise the distribution of potential supply outcomes and likely support the day’s crude bid.
Broader commodities via DBC edge higher to 23.02 from 22.92 (+0.41%). By contrast, precious metals are softer: GLD trades 376.49 versus 382.87 (−1.67%) and SLV is 46.17 versus 47.42 (−2.64%). That’s a near-term give-back despite a MarketWatch piece arguing that macro drivers—budget uncertainty and hopes for eventual Fed rate cuts—could support gold at elevated levels over a longer horizon. Natural gas (UNG) is also down at 14.59 from 14.81 (−1.49%), extending recent volatility in gas-specific balances.
FX and crypto: dollar a touch firmer; Bitcoin heavy, Ether steadier
EURUSD marks near 1.1613 at midday, modestly below its open around 1.1635 (about −0.19%), indicating a slightly firmer dollar on the session. Intraday, the pair has ranged roughly 1.1605 to 1.1653, a contained move that mirrors the day’s generally orderly cross-asset tone.
Crypto remains bifurcated. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is weak on the day, with a mark around 95,966 versus an open near 97,798 (−1.87%) and an intraday low near 94,468—consistent with CNBC reporting that BTC fell below $95,000 during a four-day downdraft. Ether (ETHUSD) is comparatively resilient at about 3,192 versus a ~3,162 open (+0.97%). That divergence underscores the shifting leadership within digital assets and the tendency for capital to rotate into higher-beta or event-driven tokens when headline pressure builds in the bellwether. MarketWatch also notes that bear-market phases in Bitcoin have sometimes offered opportunity, but not uniformly, a useful caution given the recent volatility.
Notable corporate and thematic items
- AI and semis: Cisco’s AI networking demand and legacy refresh tailwinds provided better-than-expected results and guidance, while Applied Materials’ outlook suggests a flatter first half 2026 before potential acceleration, with analysts still constructive on AI-driven leading-edge and memory demand. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings remain a focal point with mixed preprint sentiment.
- Healthcare M&A: Merck’s agreement to buy Cidara Therapeutics for $9.2 billion reflects strategic portfolio moves ahead of key patent expirations.
- Retail leadership: Walmart’s planned CEO transition to John Furner puts execution in focus for a core consumer bellwether.
- Labor and consumer: Starbucks faces a union-led strike in dozens of cities around its “Red Cup Day,” an incremental watch item for store traffic and brand narratives.
- Macro plumbing and event risk: MarketWatch highlights that the Fed may need to inject liquidity over the year-end period to ease funding pressures, and options traders point to December 10 as a crucial convergence of event risk later this year. The shutdown’s potential permanent loss of October jobs and inflation data raises the probability that markets rely more on alternative and market-implied indicators for a time, magnifying the impact of single data points.
Putting it together
Today’s cross-asset picture shows a market testing a constructive setup after a shakeout: tech is stabilizing on company-specific AI demand signals, small caps are participating, and crude is reflecting geopolitical supply risk. Long-end yields near 4.1%–4.7% and softer precious metals point to reduced immediate safe-haven hedging and some pressure on duration. The dollar is modestly stronger against the euro, in line with the mix of higher long yields and still-firm near-term inflation modeling. Crypto remains two-speed, with Bitcoin heavy and Ether firmer.
The near-term path depends on how investors process three uncertainties: the contours of the AI spend cycle into 2026 (hardware, networking, and software monetization), the macro data gap left by the shutdown (and the Fed’s response to any year-end funding tightness), and commodity risk premia tied to geopolitics (Venezuela, Russia). Strategist takes range from caution on breadth and positioning to constructive “Santa” seasonality arguments. Given today’s internals—tech leadership and energy support offset by long-duration and selective blue-chip softness—the balance of risks remains two-sided but manageable so long as yields drift rather than spike and earnings revisions hold for AI beneficiaries.
What to watch next
- Upcoming AI earnings and commentary—especially Nvidia next week—for signals on supply, demand, and pricing across accelerators, memory, and networking.
- Treasury market tone into year-end: whether long-end yields stabilize near current levels and whether the Fed provides liquidity backstops if funding stresses re-emerge.
- Energy supply headlines around Venezuela and Russia, and their impact on crude curves and refining margins.
- Any replacement or revised timing for October macro data releases; in their absence, market-implied inflation and labor indicators may take on outsized importance.
- Consumer and labor developments (Walmart leadership changes; Starbucks labor actions) as micro signals into holiday spending run-rates.
Overall, midday flows point to a tentative recalibration rather than a regime change: tech and energy leadership, modest dollar firmness, duration under pressure, and crypto mixed. Follow-through will hinge on whether macro volatility stays contained as the next wave of corporate catalysts arrives.
U.S. stocks are stabilizing into the early afternoon after Thursday’s broad selloff, with leadership tilting back toward large-cap technology. At 1:30 p.m. ET, SPY prints 673.00 versus a 672.04 prior close (about +0.14%), and QQQ trades 610.05 versus 608.40 (+0.27%). The Dow proxy DIA lags at 472.66 versus 474.74 (−0.44%), while small caps via IWM improve to 237.85 from 236.79 (+0.45%). The pattern suggests a modest risk-on skew centered in tech and select cyclicals, offset by softness in some blue chips and interest-rate sensitives.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain elevated at the long end. The most recent curve snapshot shows the 10-year at 4.08% and the 30-year at 4.67%, versus 3.56% on the 2-year and 3.68% on the 5-year. That re-steepened profile aligns with reports that yields rose as investors cheered the end of the government shutdown, a dynamic noted in CNBC coverage. Against that setup, long-duration bonds are under pressure midday (see TLT below), consistent with the higher long-end yield levels.
On inflation, the latest CPI index level sits at 324.368, with core at 330.542 (September readings). While those are levels rather than change rates, market-based inflation expectations remain relatively anchored: 5-year at about 2.36%, 10-year around 2.31%, and the 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A 1-year model estimate near 2.74% reflects lingering near-term price stickiness. The combination—moderate long-run expectations with a firmer 1-year outlook—maps to a “higher for longer at the long end” narrative even if the policy path is data dependent. Uncertainty is heightened by the shutdown’s data fallout; the White House has warned October jobs and inflation reports may never be released, leaving a temporary information gap that can amplify volatility around incoming private and market-based indicators.
Equities: stabilization led by tech; Dow lags
Broad indices are mixed to modestly higher by midday. SPY’s +0.14% and QQQ’s +0.27% gains indicate some appetite to reengage with growth after yesterday’s weakness. The DIA’s −0.44% shows some drag among select blue chips, while IWM’s +0.45% stands out as constructive for breadth at the margin.
Sectors are uneven. The technology sector entry (XLK) is firm at 288.98 versus 286.59 (+0.83%), outpacing the market and echoing a run of AI- and semiconductor-adjacent headlines. Cisco’s upbeat print and guidance tied to AI networking, highlighted by MarketWatch, reinforces the notion that infrastructure spending tied to AI remains resilient. At the same time, the semiconductor capital equipment outlook is nuanced. Applied Materials’ guidance didn’t impress some observers, with commentary pointing to a relatively flat first half next year before a potential AI- and memory-driven acceleration later in the year. Compounding the split sentiment, Nvidia remains in focus ahead of next week’s earnings, with at least one sell-rating analyst maintaining caution; elsewhere, other analysis argues the setup is constructive. The net effect is supportive for XLK today, but investors are discriminating within the AI complex.
Healthcare (XLV) is slightly softer at 152.42 versus 152.74 (−0.21%). Even so, the sector remains active on the corporate side: MarketWatch reports Merck’s agreement to acquire Cidara Therapeutics for $9.2 billion as it navigates a long-telegraphed Keytruda patent cliff and competitive shifts around Gardasil. M&A can provide idiosyncratic support for subsectors despite broader index churn.
Financials (XLF) are lagging at 52.65 versus 52.98 (−0.62%). The underperformance arrives even as the curve steepens at the long end; today’s move likely reflects positioning and stock-specific factors rather than a clean macro read-through. Energy (XLE entry) is slightly higher at 88.95 versus 88.68 (+0.31%), consistent with firmer crude (USO) and supply risk headlines (see Commodities below). Retail is in the news with leadership changes: Walmart’s long-time CEO Doug McMillon is set to retire, with John Furner stepping in, a reminder that C-suite transitions can influence near-term sentiment and execution narratives in consumer staples and discretionary alike.
Breadth remains a watch item. Several strategist pieces flagged poor breadth during recent advances and identified levels that “must not be violated.” While we are not given objective breadth stats here, the rotation within sectors—tech up, health care and financials mixed—supports the idea of a market searching for a more durable leadership handoff into year-end.
Bonds: duration under pressure
Bond proxies reflect long-end weakness. TLT trades at 88.96 versus 89.38 (−0.48%), and IEF is at 96.50 versus 96.60 (−0.11%). SHY is essentially flat to slightly higher at 82.81 versus 82.80 (+0.02%). The pattern maps to the yield snapshot—higher long-end rates weighing on duration while the very front end holds steady. For equity investors, that mix tends to compress multiples on long-duration growth when the backup in yields is sharp; today, the modest rise and supportive AI newsflow are allowing tech to outperform despite duration headwinds.
Commodities: oil up on risk; precious metals slip
Crude oil is firmer, with USO at 71.72 versus 69.85 (+2.67%). The bid coincides with risk factors flagged in the news flow: MarketWatch highlights concerns that any U.S. military action against Venezuela—holder of the world’s largest oil reserves—could impair fuel supplies and roil the global oil market. Separately, the IEA noted downside risks to Russia’s output stemming from U.S. sanctions enforcement. Together, these raise the distribution of potential supply outcomes and likely support the day’s crude bid.
Broader commodities via DBC edge higher to 23.02 from 22.92 (+0.41%). By contrast, precious metals are softer: GLD trades 376.49 versus 382.87 (−1.67%) and SLV is 46.17 versus 47.42 (−2.64%). That’s a near-term give-back despite a MarketWatch piece arguing that macro drivers—budget uncertainty and hopes for eventual Fed rate cuts—could support gold at elevated levels over a longer horizon. Natural gas (UNG) is also down at 14.59 from 14.81 (−1.49%), extending recent volatility in gas-specific balances.
FX and crypto: dollar a touch firmer; Bitcoin heavy, Ether steadier
EURUSD marks near 1.1613 at midday, modestly below its open around 1.1635 (about −0.19%), indicating a slightly firmer dollar on the session. Intraday, the pair has ranged roughly 1.1605 to 1.1653, a contained move that mirrors the day’s generally orderly cross-asset tone.
Crypto remains bifurcated. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is weak on the day, with a mark around 95,966 versus an open near 97,798 (−1.87%) and an intraday low near 94,468—consistent with CNBC reporting that BTC fell below $95,000 during a four-day downdraft. Ether (ETHUSD) is comparatively resilient at about 3,192 versus a ~3,162 open (+0.97%). That divergence underscores the shifting leadership within digital assets and the tendency for capital to rotate into higher-beta or event-driven tokens when headline pressure builds in the bellwether. MarketWatch also notes that bear-market phases in Bitcoin have sometimes offered opportunity, but not uniformly, a useful caution given the recent volatility.
Notable corporate and thematic items
- AI and semis: Cisco’s AI networking demand and legacy refresh tailwinds provided better-than-expected results and guidance, while Applied Materials’ outlook suggests a flatter first half 2026 before potential acceleration, with analysts still constructive on AI-driven leading-edge and memory demand. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings remain a focal point with mixed preprint sentiment.
- Healthcare M&A: Merck’s agreement to buy Cidara Therapeutics for $9.2 billion reflects strategic portfolio moves ahead of key patent expirations.
- Retail leadership: Walmart’s planned CEO transition to John Furner puts execution in focus for a core consumer bellwether.
- Labor and consumer: Starbucks faces a union-led strike in dozens of cities around its “Red Cup Day,” an incremental watch item for store traffic and brand narratives.
- Macro plumbing and event risk: MarketWatch highlights that the Fed may need to inject liquidity over the year-end period to ease funding pressures, and options traders point to December 10 as a crucial convergence of event risk later this year. The shutdown’s potential permanent loss of October jobs and inflation data raises the probability that markets rely more on alternative and market-implied indicators for a time, magnifying the impact of single data points.
Putting it together
Today’s cross-asset picture shows a market testing a constructive setup after a shakeout: tech is stabilizing on company-specific AI demand signals, small caps are participating, and crude is reflecting geopolitical supply risk. Long-end yields near 4.1%–4.7% and softer precious metals point to reduced immediate safe-haven hedging and some pressure on duration. The dollar is modestly stronger against the euro, in line with the mix of higher long yields and still-firm near-term inflation modeling. Crypto remains two-speed, with Bitcoin heavy and Ether firmer.
The near-term path depends on how investors process three uncertainties: the contours of the AI spend cycle into 2026 (hardware, networking, and software monetization), the macro data gap left by the shutdown (and the Fed’s response to any year-end funding tightness), and commodity risk premia tied to geopolitics (Venezuela, Russia). Strategist takes range from caution on breadth and positioning to constructive “Santa” seasonality arguments. Given today’s internals—tech leadership and energy support offset by long-duration and selective blue-chip softness—the balance of risks remains two-sided but manageable so long as yields drift rather than spike and earnings revisions hold for AI beneficiaries.
What to watch next
- Upcoming AI earnings and commentary—especially Nvidia next week—for signals on supply, demand, and pricing across accelerators, memory, and networking.
- Treasury market tone into year-end: whether long-end yields stabilize near current levels and whether the Fed provides liquidity backstops if funding stresses re-emerge.
- Energy supply headlines around Venezuela and Russia, and their impact on crude curves and refining margins.
- Any replacement or revised timing for October macro data releases; in their absence, market-implied inflation and labor indicators may take on outsized importance.
- Consumer and labor developments (Walmart leadership changes; Starbucks labor actions) as micro signals into holiday spending run-rates.
Overall, midday flows point to a tentative recalibration rather than a regime change: tech and energy leadership, modest dollar firmness, duration under pressure, and crypto mixed. Follow-through will hinge on whether macro volatility stays contained as the next wave of corporate catalysts arrives.