State of Market: Midday 11/11/25
Midday market: Dow leads while tech lags; bonds firm, energy commodities rise, euro edges up as crypto eases
Rotation favors cyclicals and health care over mega-cap tech; bond ETFs advance alongside an upward-sloping Treasury curve (10-year at 4.11%, 30-year at 4.70%) while oil and gas products climb.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Stocks are mixed at midday on Tuesday with a clear rotational tone under the surface. The Dow proxy is out front while growth-heavy benchmarks trail, bond proxies are firm, and energy-linked commodities advance. The backdrop features an upward-sloping Treasury curve based on the latest available readings, inflation expectations clustered near the mid-2% range, and headlines focused on the prospective end of the U.S. government shutdown and an approaching wave of delayed economic releases.
Equities and sector leadership
Broad U.S. equity performance is diverging across styles and sectors. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is essentially unchanged to slightly lower at 681.05 versus a prior close of 681.44, a fractional decline of roughly 0.06%. The Nasdaq 100 proxy (QQQ) is under more pressure at 619.59 vs. 623.23, down about 0.58%, reflecting softness in large-cap technology ahead of a closely watched chipmaker event later today. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is higher at 477.63 vs. 473.82, a gain of about 0.80%, aided by relative strength in cyclicals and health care. Small caps, as tracked by the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), are marginally lower at 243.87 vs. 244.03, off about 0.07%.
Sector ETFs echo that mix. Financials (XLF) are up around 0.52% at 53.245 vs. 52.97, while Health Care (XLV) is leading with a roughly 1.89% advance at 150.07 vs. 147.28. Technology (XLK) is lower by about 1.10% at 292.29 vs. 295.53, consistent with broader weakness in the Nasdaq complex. Energy (XLE) is essentially flat to fractionally lower at 89.65 vs. 89.66 despite rising oil benchmarks, suggesting company-specific and index-composition dynamics are offsetting the commodity tailwind at midday.
The day’s leadership lines up with recent commentary and headlines. Health care sentiment benefits from continued investor focus on obesity and cardiometabolic therapies, with new clinical updates discussed in media interviews, and from merger-and-acquisition headlines in the space. At the same time, several articles flag caution in megacap tech after a strong multi-month run, and this is reflected in the XLK and QQQ declines. Market color around an AI infrastructure build-out remains constructive overall, but news flow features both supportive and cautionary elements—another reason for the mixed tone within tech.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The most recent Treasury curve shows an upward-sloping profile out the curve: 2-year at 3.55%, 5-year at 3.67%, 10-year at 4.11%, and 30-year at 4.70% (data as of 2025-11-07). While those are not intraday prints, the fixed-income ETF tape is consistent with a modest bid for duration today, as discussed below. On inflation, the latest available CPI level is 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542 (September reading). Market- and model-based inflation expectations remain clustered near the mid-2% area: market 5-year at 2.36%, market 10-year at 2.31%, the 5y5y forward at 2.25%, and a model-implied 1-year at 2.74% alongside model 5- and 10-year expectations around 2.32% and 2.29%, respectively. Net, the expectations term structure suggests inflation is expected to cool from near-term readings toward a range broadly consistent with price stability over longer horizons.
Labor and policy headlines shape near-term sentiment. A report that the private sector shed jobs in late October in new weekly ADP data reinforces the view that job growth has cooled since September. Meanwhile, multiple articles describe a likely end to the government shutdown and flag that, upon reopening, markets will be met with a concentrated release of delayed economic reports covering employment and inflation. That dynamic may compress event risk into a shorter window, raising the possibility of larger-than-usual market moves when the data hit.
Bonds: bid for duration as ETFs rise
Treasury ETFs are firmer at midday. The long-duration iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is up about 0.46% at 89.96 vs. 89.55. Intermediate 7–10-year duration (IEF) is higher by roughly 0.29% at 96.84 vs. 96.56. The front end, reflected by SHY, is slightly higher at 82.87 vs. 82.81, up about 0.07%. These ETF moves align with a mild risk-on rotation within equities toward cyclicals and away from long-duration growth, even as they also imply some intraday easing in yields relative to Monday’s closes. The most recent curve levels (10-year at 4.11% and 30-year at 4.70%) indicate a positive slope beyond the 2-year and 5-year nodes; if sustained, a positively sloped curve typically reflects a market that expects stable-to-improving growth and inflation dynamics over the medium term, although imminent data releases could challenge that view.
Commodities: energy products climb; precious metals steady-to-higher
Commodity proxies are broadly firmer. Oil, via USO, is up about 1.77% at 72.95 vs. 71.68, and natural gas, via UNG, is up roughly 3.69% at 14.62 vs. 14.10. The diversified commodities basket (DBC) is higher by about 0.58% at 23.29 vs. 23.15. Precious metals are stable-to-up: GLD edges higher to 378.48 vs. 378.38, and SLV advances about 0.73% to 46.13 vs. 45.79. The combination of firmer energy and steady precious metals coincides with articles highlighting rising winter utility bills and power-demand themes connected to AI data center build-outs, as well as company-specific developments in hydrogen and power markets.
FX and crypto: euro firmer; digital assets off session highs
In foreign exchange, the euro is firmer against the dollar, with EURUSD marked at 1.1594 versus an open of 1.1559, a move of roughly 0.3% in favor of the euro. That broad dollar softness fits the day’s pattern of better performance in cyclicals, commodities, and non-U.S. proxies, though confirmation awaits the upcoming U.S. data slate.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is softer at a mark price of about 103,396 versus an open of 105,745, down roughly 2.2%. Ether (ETHUSD) is also lower at approximately 3,475 versus an open of 3,574, down about 2.8%. Media coverage features debate over the durability of the AI-led equity trade and the broader risk environment, which often correlates with crypto beta on a day-to-day basis; however, no single catalyst is evident in the provided data.
Notable headlines and how they tie to today’s tape
- Government shutdown and air travel normalization: Multiple pieces indicate an end to the shutdown could be near, but airlines warn that cancellations may persist even after reopening as operations reset. Equity markets often look through near-term operational disruptions, but the eventual release of a backlog of economic reports could be a volatility event in both bonds and stocks.
- Labor softness: Weekly ADP data suggesting private-sector job declines in late October add to concerns that job growth has remained tepid since September. Today’s bid in duration and slight pressure on growth indices are consistent with a market testing a slower-growth narrative pending official data releases.
- Tech/AI crosscurrents: Reports ahead of a chipmaker’s analyst day emphasize investors’ desire for long-term AI roadmaps, while other articles note CoreWeave’s strong revenue trends alongside data-center project timing questions. Additional pieces highlight SoftBank’s strategic repositioning away from a high-profile GPU maker stake to new AI bets, and a large bank’s view that AI is not yet a bubble—even as some prominent investors critique sector accounting assumptions such as depreciation. The mixed message helps explain why XLK and QQQ are lagging while the broader market is relatively resilient.
- Health care momentum: Interviews and deal headlines in biopharma and medical technology provide a constructive backdrop for the sector. XLV’s outperformance today aligns with that tone.
- Consumer staples and protein markets: A note that chicken demand is rising as consumers trade down from high-priced beef speaks to pocket-of-inflation stories within food, which can filter into commodities baskets and consumer behavior more broadly.
- Financials and credit: An article noting banks set aside less for troubled loans last quarter sends a cautiously optimistic signal on credit quality, even as investors remain skeptical. XLF’s gain today suggests the sector is participating in the rotation toward cyclicals.
- Payments and antitrust: A proposed Visa/Mastercard merchant settlement raises questions about the structure and economics of card rewards and acceptance. While not directly visible in sector ETFs here, the topic can shape sentiment toward payments networks and parts of consumer discretionary and financials over time.
Putting it together
At midday, the pattern is a classic rotation: Dow and financials/health care up, tech down, small caps little changed. That distribution is consistent with: (1) bond ETFs firmer and the latest curve showing positive slope out the curve; (2) anticipation of a heavy, condensed data calendar once Washington reopens; (3) tech-specific event risk and ongoing debate around the durability and funding of AI capital cycles; and (4) incremental strength in energy commodities, possibly reinforcing cyclical value pockets even as traditional energy equities tread water.
What to watch next
- Shutdown resolution and the data deluge: Several reports indicate that when the government reopens, markets will quickly confront delayed releases on jobs and inflation. The sequencing and any revisions will matter for both bonds and equities.
- Treasury supply: Market commentary points to upcoming Treasury auctions as tone-setters for both yields and risk assets during a period of limited official data. Bid dynamics could influence duration and equity valuations.
- Tech catalysts: A chipmaker’s analyst day later today is likely to steer near-term sentiment for AI-adjacent names and the broader XLK/QQQ complex. Headlines around data-center deployment schedules and power sourcing remain in focus.
- Energy and utilities: Oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) gains today, alongside winter utility bill concerns, keep energy expenditures and margins in view for consumers and energy-intensive industries.
- Air travel operations: Airlines suggest that even after a shutdown end, cancellations may persist as operations reset. Watch for read-through to leisure and business travel demand.
Risks
- Data shock risk: A compressed release of delayed economic data could produce larger-than-normal moves if prints deviate from expectations on employment or inflation.
- Policy and operational risk: Timelines for shutdown resolution and the pace of normalization in federal and transportation operations remain uncertain.
- Concentration and factor risk: Ongoing debate over AI capex sustainability and accounting can amplify swings in megacap tech, which heavily influences index-level returns.
- Rates and supply: Treasury auction outcomes can shift the rate path and equity multiples; a weak bid could pressure duration-sensitive assets.
- Commodity volatility: Rising oil and gas prices could reheat inflation concerns and squeeze margins in energy-consuming sectors.
- FX and crypto swings: A firmer euro and softer crypto today underscore cross-asset sensitivity to shifting growth and liquidity narratives.
Midday bottom line
The market is navigating a rotation day: cyclicals and health care are carrying the tape while tech cools, bonds are bid, energy commodities are higher, and the euro is firmer. With the policy backdrop moving toward a shutdown resolution and a data backlog poised to hit, the next several sessions may feature more cross-asset repricing than a typical mid-November week. Positioning into that event risk appears more balanced today than in recent sessions, but the distribution of outcomes remains wide until the data arrive.
Stocks are mixed at midday on Tuesday with a clear rotational tone under the surface. The Dow proxy is out front while growth-heavy benchmarks trail, bond proxies are firm, and energy-linked commodities advance. The backdrop features an upward-sloping Treasury curve based on the latest available readings, inflation expectations clustered near the mid-2% range, and headlines focused on the prospective end of the U.S. government shutdown and an approaching wave of delayed economic releases.
Equities and sector leadership
Broad U.S. equity performance is diverging across styles and sectors. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is essentially unchanged to slightly lower at 681.05 versus a prior close of 681.44, a fractional decline of roughly 0.06%. The Nasdaq 100 proxy (QQQ) is under more pressure at 619.59 vs. 623.23, down about 0.58%, reflecting softness in large-cap technology ahead of a closely watched chipmaker event later today. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is higher at 477.63 vs. 473.82, a gain of about 0.80%, aided by relative strength in cyclicals and health care. Small caps, as tracked by the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), are marginally lower at 243.87 vs. 244.03, off about 0.07%.
Sector ETFs echo that mix. Financials (XLF) are up around 0.52% at 53.245 vs. 52.97, while Health Care (XLV) is leading with a roughly 1.89% advance at 150.07 vs. 147.28. Technology (XLK) is lower by about 1.10% at 292.29 vs. 295.53, consistent with broader weakness in the Nasdaq complex. Energy (XLE) is essentially flat to fractionally lower at 89.65 vs. 89.66 despite rising oil benchmarks, suggesting company-specific and index-composition dynamics are offsetting the commodity tailwind at midday.
The day’s leadership lines up with recent commentary and headlines. Health care sentiment benefits from continued investor focus on obesity and cardiometabolic therapies, with new clinical updates discussed in media interviews, and from merger-and-acquisition headlines in the space. At the same time, several articles flag caution in megacap tech after a strong multi-month run, and this is reflected in the XLK and QQQ declines. Market color around an AI infrastructure build-out remains constructive overall, but news flow features both supportive and cautionary elements—another reason for the mixed tone within tech.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The most recent Treasury curve shows an upward-sloping profile out the curve: 2-year at 3.55%, 5-year at 3.67%, 10-year at 4.11%, and 30-year at 4.70% (data as of 2025-11-07). While those are not intraday prints, the fixed-income ETF tape is consistent with a modest bid for duration today, as discussed below. On inflation, the latest available CPI level is 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542 (September reading). Market- and model-based inflation expectations remain clustered near the mid-2% area: market 5-year at 2.36%, market 10-year at 2.31%, the 5y5y forward at 2.25%, and a model-implied 1-year at 2.74% alongside model 5- and 10-year expectations around 2.32% and 2.29%, respectively. Net, the expectations term structure suggests inflation is expected to cool from near-term readings toward a range broadly consistent with price stability over longer horizons.
Labor and policy headlines shape near-term sentiment. A report that the private sector shed jobs in late October in new weekly ADP data reinforces the view that job growth has cooled since September. Meanwhile, multiple articles describe a likely end to the government shutdown and flag that, upon reopening, markets will be met with a concentrated release of delayed economic reports covering employment and inflation. That dynamic may compress event risk into a shorter window, raising the possibility of larger-than-usual market moves when the data hit.
Bonds: bid for duration as ETFs rise
Treasury ETFs are firmer at midday. The long-duration iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is up about 0.46% at 89.96 vs. 89.55. Intermediate 7–10-year duration (IEF) is higher by roughly 0.29% at 96.84 vs. 96.56. The front end, reflected by SHY, is slightly higher at 82.87 vs. 82.81, up about 0.07%. These ETF moves align with a mild risk-on rotation within equities toward cyclicals and away from long-duration growth, even as they also imply some intraday easing in yields relative to Monday’s closes. The most recent curve levels (10-year at 4.11% and 30-year at 4.70%) indicate a positive slope beyond the 2-year and 5-year nodes; if sustained, a positively sloped curve typically reflects a market that expects stable-to-improving growth and inflation dynamics over the medium term, although imminent data releases could challenge that view.
Commodities: energy products climb; precious metals steady-to-higher
Commodity proxies are broadly firmer. Oil, via USO, is up about 1.77% at 72.95 vs. 71.68, and natural gas, via UNG, is up roughly 3.69% at 14.62 vs. 14.10. The diversified commodities basket (DBC) is higher by about 0.58% at 23.29 vs. 23.15. Precious metals are stable-to-up: GLD edges higher to 378.48 vs. 378.38, and SLV advances about 0.73% to 46.13 vs. 45.79. The combination of firmer energy and steady precious metals coincides with articles highlighting rising winter utility bills and power-demand themes connected to AI data center build-outs, as well as company-specific developments in hydrogen and power markets.
FX and crypto: euro firmer; digital assets off session highs
In foreign exchange, the euro is firmer against the dollar, with EURUSD marked at 1.1594 versus an open of 1.1559, a move of roughly 0.3% in favor of the euro. That broad dollar softness fits the day’s pattern of better performance in cyclicals, commodities, and non-U.S. proxies, though confirmation awaits the upcoming U.S. data slate.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is softer at a mark price of about 103,396 versus an open of 105,745, down roughly 2.2%. Ether (ETHUSD) is also lower at approximately 3,475 versus an open of 3,574, down about 2.8%. Media coverage features debate over the durability of the AI-led equity trade and the broader risk environment, which often correlates with crypto beta on a day-to-day basis; however, no single catalyst is evident in the provided data.
Notable headlines and how they tie to today’s tape
- Government shutdown and air travel normalization: Multiple pieces indicate an end to the shutdown could be near, but airlines warn that cancellations may persist even after reopening as operations reset. Equity markets often look through near-term operational disruptions, but the eventual release of a backlog of economic reports could be a volatility event in both bonds and stocks.
- Labor softness: Weekly ADP data suggesting private-sector job declines in late October add to concerns that job growth has remained tepid since September. Today’s bid in duration and slight pressure on growth indices are consistent with a market testing a slower-growth narrative pending official data releases.
- Tech/AI crosscurrents: Reports ahead of a chipmaker’s analyst day emphasize investors’ desire for long-term AI roadmaps, while other articles note CoreWeave’s strong revenue trends alongside data-center project timing questions. Additional pieces highlight SoftBank’s strategic repositioning away from a high-profile GPU maker stake to new AI bets, and a large bank’s view that AI is not yet a bubble—even as some prominent investors critique sector accounting assumptions such as depreciation. The mixed message helps explain why XLK and QQQ are lagging while the broader market is relatively resilient.
- Health care momentum: Interviews and deal headlines in biopharma and medical technology provide a constructive backdrop for the sector. XLV’s outperformance today aligns with that tone.
- Consumer staples and protein markets: A note that chicken demand is rising as consumers trade down from high-priced beef speaks to pocket-of-inflation stories within food, which can filter into commodities baskets and consumer behavior more broadly.
- Financials and credit: An article noting banks set aside less for troubled loans last quarter sends a cautiously optimistic signal on credit quality, even as investors remain skeptical. XLF’s gain today suggests the sector is participating in the rotation toward cyclicals.
- Payments and antitrust: A proposed Visa/Mastercard merchant settlement raises questions about the structure and economics of card rewards and acceptance. While not directly visible in sector ETFs here, the topic can shape sentiment toward payments networks and parts of consumer discretionary and financials over time.
Putting it together
At midday, the pattern is a classic rotation: Dow and financials/health care up, tech down, small caps little changed. That distribution is consistent with: (1) bond ETFs firmer and the latest curve showing positive slope out the curve; (2) anticipation of a heavy, condensed data calendar once Washington reopens; (3) tech-specific event risk and ongoing debate around the durability and funding of AI capital cycles; and (4) incremental strength in energy commodities, possibly reinforcing cyclical value pockets even as traditional energy equities tread water.
What to watch next
- Shutdown resolution and the data deluge: Several reports indicate that when the government reopens, markets will quickly confront delayed releases on jobs and inflation. The sequencing and any revisions will matter for both bonds and equities.
- Treasury supply: Market commentary points to upcoming Treasury auctions as tone-setters for both yields and risk assets during a period of limited official data. Bid dynamics could influence duration and equity valuations.
- Tech catalysts: A chipmaker’s analyst day later today is likely to steer near-term sentiment for AI-adjacent names and the broader XLK/QQQ complex. Headlines around data-center deployment schedules and power sourcing remain in focus.
- Energy and utilities: Oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) gains today, alongside winter utility bill concerns, keep energy expenditures and margins in view for consumers and energy-intensive industries.
- Air travel operations: Airlines suggest that even after a shutdown end, cancellations may persist as operations reset. Watch for read-through to leisure and business travel demand.
Risks
- Data shock risk: A compressed release of delayed economic data could produce larger-than-normal moves if prints deviate from expectations on employment or inflation.
- Policy and operational risk: Timelines for shutdown resolution and the pace of normalization in federal and transportation operations remain uncertain.
- Concentration and factor risk: Ongoing debate over AI capex sustainability and accounting can amplify swings in megacap tech, which heavily influences index-level returns.
- Rates and supply: Treasury auction outcomes can shift the rate path and equity multiples; a weak bid could pressure duration-sensitive assets.
- Commodity volatility: Rising oil and gas prices could reheat inflation concerns and squeeze margins in energy-consuming sectors.
- FX and crypto swings: A firmer euro and softer crypto today underscore cross-asset sensitivity to shifting growth and liquidity narratives.
Midday bottom line
The market is navigating a rotation day: cyclicals and health care are carrying the tape while tech cools, bonds are bid, energy commodities are higher, and the euro is firmer. With the policy backdrop moving toward a shutdown resolution and a data backlog poised to hit, the next several sessions may feature more cross-asset repricing than a typical mid-November week. Positioning into that event risk appears more balanced today than in recent sessions, but the distribution of outcomes remains wide until the data arrive.