State of Market: Midday 11/10/25
Midday market check: Tech leads a broad rebound as gold surges; bonds ease while shutdown headlines linger
Equities advance with QQQ out front and small-caps firming; long-end yields remain elevated, bond ETFs slip, and crypto softens. Energy lags while precious metals rally despite steady inflation expectations.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Equities are advancing into the midday session, with gains broadening beyond mega-cap technology and into small-caps. The tone is constructive despite persistent macro cross-currents: long-end Treasury yields remain elevated, bond ETFs are modestly lower, and policy uncertainty around the government shutdown continues to filter through travel and consumer sentiment headlines. Notably, precious metals are rallying sharply, a move occurring alongside relatively anchored inflation expectations.
At 12:30 p.m. ET, the major index ETFs show a clear risk-on tilt. SPY is up about 1.0% from Friday’s close, QQQ is the session’s leader with a gain of roughly 1.6%, DIA is modestly higher, and IWM adds just over 1.0%. Within sectors, Technology is pacing the advance while Energy lags. In rates, long duration remains heavy with TLT and IEF edging lower, consistent with a 10-year yield north of 4% and a 30-year near 4.7%. The standout on the commodity tape is gold and silver, both posting sizable gains. Crypto is softer intraday, with bitcoin and ether down from their respective opens.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The latest available Treasury curve snapshot (as of 2025-11-06) shows a front end around 4% and a re-steepening toward the long end: 1-month at roughly 4.02%, 3-month near 3.93%, 1-year at 3.65%, 2-year at 3.57%, 5-year at 3.69%, 10-year at 4.11%, and 30-year at 4.69%. That configuration is consistent with ongoing growth and term-premium dynamics that keep the long end elevated relative to the belly of the curve. Recent articles highlight “wide Treasury-market swings” and investor uncertainty about the economic path—an observation that aligns with today’s modest weakness in duration-heavy bond ETFs even as equities rally.
On inflation, the most recent CPI index readings available (September) stand at 324.368 for headline CPI and 330.542 for core. Market-based inflation expectations remain contained: 5-year breakevens near 2.36%, 10-year around 2.31%, and the 5y5y forward at 2.25%. Model-based measures place 1-year expectations at about 2.74%, 5-year at 2.32%, and 10-year near 2.29%, with a 30-year model estimate at roughly 2.42%. In short, expectations are broadly consistent with a moderate-inflation regime. That anchoring is noteworthy given today’s strong bid for precious metals—suggesting the move in gold and silver may be capturing a mix of hedging behavior (policy, fiscal, or geopolitical) and technical factors rather than a contemporaneous shift in inflation expectations.
Shutdown and policy headlines remain in focus. Over the weekend and into this morning, several pieces pointed to Senate progress and renewed hope of a deal, even as reports also warned that the shutdown is “starting to bite” the economy. Airlines and business travelers are feeling the operational strain, with worsening delays and cancellations discussed across multiple articles. Consumer sentiment has been pressured as well, with anxiety about the shutdown cited as a key driver. The market’s midday resilience suggests investors are, for now, leaning toward an eventual resolution while acknowledging near-term frictions.
Equities: breadth improves with tech leadership
The broad equity tape is constructive. SPY last traded at 677.54 versus a prior close of 670.97, up about 0.98%. QQQ trades near 619.36 versus 609.74, up around 1.58%. The Dow proxy DIA is firmer at 471.16 versus 469.86 (+0.28%), while small caps via IWM are at 244.04 versus 241.61 (+1.01%), indicating healthier breadth.
Sector performance shows Technology out in front and Energy lagging. XLK is up roughly 1.87% versus Friday, XLF edges higher (+0.24%) as the rate backdrop remains manageable for financials, and XLV is modestly positive (+0.20%). Energy (XLE) is lower by about 0.75%, a notable underperformance despite crude’s flat-to-slightly positive print in USO.
The leadership profile lines up with a cluster of AI- and megacap-related headlines. Several pieces argue that AI is “not a bubble yet” and that concerns around leading chip suppliers may be overblown. There’s also reporting that Nvidia is seeking more wafer supply from Taiwan Semiconductor, an incremental data point that supports continued demand for AI hardware capacity. At the same time, there are countervailing notes on individual names—bearish commentary on Meta and discussion of a losing streak in Microsoft—underscoring that positioning and spending plans remain under scrutiny even within favored secular themes. The net effect today is a relief bid in tech at the index level, with investors selectively rewarding the AI build-out narrative while remaining price-sensitive around valuation and capex.
Company and industry headlines worth noting
- Semiconductors and AI infrastructure: Articles highlight ongoing demand from Nvidia and capacity requests to TSMC. That dovetails with today’s tech-led bounce and a thesis that AI infrastructure spend remains robust. Separately, macro strategists point to bonds of hyperscalers as an area of caution while maintaining a constructive view on risk assets for now—reminding investors that financing the AI boom is complex and capital-intensive.
- Software and platforms: Commentary notes Microsoft’s recent losing streak and Meta’s post-guidance pressure. While no single stock move is cited here today, the tone underscores the market’s sensitivity to AI opex and the need for sustained revenue conversion to justify elevated multiples.
- Payments: Visa and Mastercard reached a new merchant settlement, with questions raised about potential implications for rewards cards. The articles stop short of definitive impact assessments but frame the issue as a medium-term watch item for consumer behavior and issuer economics.
- Health care: Pfizer prevailed in its bid to acquire an obesity-drug developer, fending off a competing bid from Novo Nordisk. The move signals big-pharma urgency to secure exposure to the obesity-treatment category.
- Travel and leisure: Expedia’s results and commentary emphasized AI as a tailwind for operations and demand that is not confined to high-income travelers. Airbnb suggested traveler sentiment is improving but flagged that new investments and regulatory battles could weigh on profitability. Against the shutdown backdrop, airline operational disruptions are in focus even as one report noted airline equities had held up surprisingly well last week.
- Consumer and retail: McDonald’s reiterated a focus on value and affordability amid a bifurcating consumer. DoorDash drew attention for its steepest drop on spending concerns tied to new initiatives, while Wendy’s results were framed as better than feared despite competitive pressures.
- Autos and EVs: Ford’s F-150 Lightning was cited as a potential high-profile casualty of an EV slowdown, keeping attention on the pace of mainstream EV adoption and cost structures.
Bonds: duration soft as long-end yields stay elevated
Treasury proxies are modestly lower midday. TLT trades at 89.44 versus 89.57 on Friday (-0.15%), IEF at 96.55 versus 96.69 (-0.14%), and SHY at 82.80 versus 82.83 (-0.04%). With the 10-year benchmark last reported at 4.11% and the 30-year at 4.69% (as of the latest yield snapshot), price action is consistent with a market that remains cautious on duration. The recent commentary about “wide swings” and confusion over the growth outlook maps to this choppiness; today’s session adds another small data point to a larger theme of range-bound but headline-sensitive rates trading.
Commodities: precious metals lead, energy mixed
Gold and silver are the standout movers. GLD trades at 376.93 versus 368.31 (+2.34%), while SLV sits at 45.56 versus 43.92 (+3.74%). The advance arrives even with medium- and long-term inflation expectations largely stable, suggesting diversification demand, policy hedging, or technical momentum as likely drivers. Market commentary has posited that a “debasement trade” remains alive—an argument that appears compatible with today’s flows.
Energy is more muted. USO is essentially flat to slightly positive at 71.32 versus 71.26 (+0.08%). Broad commodities via DBC are firmer at 23.03 versus 22.90 (+0.55%). Natural gas (UNG) is modestly lower at 13.89 versus 13.95 (-0.41%). The energy sector’s equity underperformance (XLE lower even as USO ticks up slightly) points to company-specific dynamics—capital allocation, dividend sensitivity to long-end yields, or idiosyncratic headlines—rather than a clear read-through from front-month crude.
FX and crypto: dollar mixed, crypto softer intraday
On FX, EURUSD marks around 1.155 midday, roughly in line with recent ranges according to the provided snapshot; no broader inferences are made from the limited intraday data. In digital assets, bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks near 105,347, down about 0.8% from its open, and ether (ETHUSD) is around 3,528, down about 2.5% from its open. Articles this morning discuss bitcoin’s stalled relief rally and the challenge of returning to record highs by year-end, as well as a tight historical correlation between bitcoin and tech heavy indices. Today’s tape shows a modest decoupling—tech is bid while crypto is softer—reminding investors that cross-asset linkages can weaken over shorter windows, particularly around policy and positioning catalysts.
Putting it together
The midday picture reflects a market attempting to look through near-term policy noise. Equities are stronger with leadership in technology and improving breadth via small caps. Bond proxies are slightly weaker as the yield curve remains elevated at the long end. Precious metals are attracting capital even as inflation expectations stay anchored, and crypto is consolidating. The news flow around AI remains two-sided—constructive on infrastructure demand and critical of unchecked spending—but today’s market response favors the secular build-out narrative.
What to watch next
- Shutdown negotiations and operational impacts. Several reports suggest progress toward a deal, yet flight disruptions and soft sentiment readings remain immediate headwinds.
- AI capex and supply chain signals. Updates on wafer supply requests, data center build financing, and hyperscaler bond markets are key to gauging durability of the AI cycle.
- Consumer behavior into the holidays. Payments ecosystem developments (e.g., Visa/Mastercard settlement contours), quick-service value strategies, and travel demand commentary will help triangulate spending resilience.
- Rates stability. Another bout of Treasury volatility could quickly alter leadership across equities and reset risk appetite. No specific economic release calendar was provided in the payload, but the next inflation and labor updates will matter for the curve and multiples.
Risks
- Prolonged shutdown with deepening operational and confidence effects.
- Policy shifts on tariffs and benefits that alter household cash flow and corporate cost structures.
- AI spending fatigue or financing strain that undercuts high-multiple tech.
- A renewed back-up in long-end yields that pressures duration-sensitive assets and valuation-rich equities.
- Crypto drawdowns spilling over into risk sentiment if correlations re-tighten.
Overall, midday trade is constructive, with the balance of evidence pointing to incremental risk-on positioning led by technology and supported by improving breadth. That stance remains conditional on rates stability and progress on policy fronts highlighted in today’s news flow.
Equities are advancing into the midday session, with gains broadening beyond mega-cap technology and into small-caps. The tone is constructive despite persistent macro cross-currents: long-end Treasury yields remain elevated, bond ETFs are modestly lower, and policy uncertainty around the government shutdown continues to filter through travel and consumer sentiment headlines. Notably, precious metals are rallying sharply, a move occurring alongside relatively anchored inflation expectations.
At 12:30 p.m. ET, the major index ETFs show a clear risk-on tilt. SPY is up about 1.0% from Friday’s close, QQQ is the session’s leader with a gain of roughly 1.6%, DIA is modestly higher, and IWM adds just over 1.0%. Within sectors, Technology is pacing the advance while Energy lags. In rates, long duration remains heavy with TLT and IEF edging lower, consistent with a 10-year yield north of 4% and a 30-year near 4.7%. The standout on the commodity tape is gold and silver, both posting sizable gains. Crypto is softer intraday, with bitcoin and ether down from their respective opens.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The latest available Treasury curve snapshot (as of 2025-11-06) shows a front end around 4% and a re-steepening toward the long end: 1-month at roughly 4.02%, 3-month near 3.93%, 1-year at 3.65%, 2-year at 3.57%, 5-year at 3.69%, 10-year at 4.11%, and 30-year at 4.69%. That configuration is consistent with ongoing growth and term-premium dynamics that keep the long end elevated relative to the belly of the curve. Recent articles highlight “wide Treasury-market swings” and investor uncertainty about the economic path—an observation that aligns with today’s modest weakness in duration-heavy bond ETFs even as equities rally.
On inflation, the most recent CPI index readings available (September) stand at 324.368 for headline CPI and 330.542 for core. Market-based inflation expectations remain contained: 5-year breakevens near 2.36%, 10-year around 2.31%, and the 5y5y forward at 2.25%. Model-based measures place 1-year expectations at about 2.74%, 5-year at 2.32%, and 10-year near 2.29%, with a 30-year model estimate at roughly 2.42%. In short, expectations are broadly consistent with a moderate-inflation regime. That anchoring is noteworthy given today’s strong bid for precious metals—suggesting the move in gold and silver may be capturing a mix of hedging behavior (policy, fiscal, or geopolitical) and technical factors rather than a contemporaneous shift in inflation expectations.
Shutdown and policy headlines remain in focus. Over the weekend and into this morning, several pieces pointed to Senate progress and renewed hope of a deal, even as reports also warned that the shutdown is “starting to bite” the economy. Airlines and business travelers are feeling the operational strain, with worsening delays and cancellations discussed across multiple articles. Consumer sentiment has been pressured as well, with anxiety about the shutdown cited as a key driver. The market’s midday resilience suggests investors are, for now, leaning toward an eventual resolution while acknowledging near-term frictions.
Equities: breadth improves with tech leadership
The broad equity tape is constructive. SPY last traded at 677.54 versus a prior close of 670.97, up about 0.98%. QQQ trades near 619.36 versus 609.74, up around 1.58%. The Dow proxy DIA is firmer at 471.16 versus 469.86 (+0.28%), while small caps via IWM are at 244.04 versus 241.61 (+1.01%), indicating healthier breadth.
Sector performance shows Technology out in front and Energy lagging. XLK is up roughly 1.87% versus Friday, XLF edges higher (+0.24%) as the rate backdrop remains manageable for financials, and XLV is modestly positive (+0.20%). Energy (XLE) is lower by about 0.75%, a notable underperformance despite crude’s flat-to-slightly positive print in USO.
The leadership profile lines up with a cluster of AI- and megacap-related headlines. Several pieces argue that AI is “not a bubble yet” and that concerns around leading chip suppliers may be overblown. There’s also reporting that Nvidia is seeking more wafer supply from Taiwan Semiconductor, an incremental data point that supports continued demand for AI hardware capacity. At the same time, there are countervailing notes on individual names—bearish commentary on Meta and discussion of a losing streak in Microsoft—underscoring that positioning and spending plans remain under scrutiny even within favored secular themes. The net effect today is a relief bid in tech at the index level, with investors selectively rewarding the AI build-out narrative while remaining price-sensitive around valuation and capex.
Company and industry headlines worth noting
- Semiconductors and AI infrastructure: Articles highlight ongoing demand from Nvidia and capacity requests to TSMC. That dovetails with today’s tech-led bounce and a thesis that AI infrastructure spend remains robust. Separately, macro strategists point to bonds of hyperscalers as an area of caution while maintaining a constructive view on risk assets for now—reminding investors that financing the AI boom is complex and capital-intensive.
- Software and platforms: Commentary notes Microsoft’s recent losing streak and Meta’s post-guidance pressure. While no single stock move is cited here today, the tone underscores the market’s sensitivity to AI opex and the need for sustained revenue conversion to justify elevated multiples.
- Payments: Visa and Mastercard reached a new merchant settlement, with questions raised about potential implications for rewards cards. The articles stop short of definitive impact assessments but frame the issue as a medium-term watch item for consumer behavior and issuer economics.
- Health care: Pfizer prevailed in its bid to acquire an obesity-drug developer, fending off a competing bid from Novo Nordisk. The move signals big-pharma urgency to secure exposure to the obesity-treatment category.
- Travel and leisure: Expedia’s results and commentary emphasized AI as a tailwind for operations and demand that is not confined to high-income travelers. Airbnb suggested traveler sentiment is improving but flagged that new investments and regulatory battles could weigh on profitability. Against the shutdown backdrop, airline operational disruptions are in focus even as one report noted airline equities had held up surprisingly well last week.
- Consumer and retail: McDonald’s reiterated a focus on value and affordability amid a bifurcating consumer. DoorDash drew attention for its steepest drop on spending concerns tied to new initiatives, while Wendy’s results were framed as better than feared despite competitive pressures.
- Autos and EVs: Ford’s F-150 Lightning was cited as a potential high-profile casualty of an EV slowdown, keeping attention on the pace of mainstream EV adoption and cost structures.
Bonds: duration soft as long-end yields stay elevated
Treasury proxies are modestly lower midday. TLT trades at 89.44 versus 89.57 on Friday (-0.15%), IEF at 96.55 versus 96.69 (-0.14%), and SHY at 82.80 versus 82.83 (-0.04%). With the 10-year benchmark last reported at 4.11% and the 30-year at 4.69% (as of the latest yield snapshot), price action is consistent with a market that remains cautious on duration. The recent commentary about “wide swings” and confusion over the growth outlook maps to this choppiness; today’s session adds another small data point to a larger theme of range-bound but headline-sensitive rates trading.
Commodities: precious metals lead, energy mixed
Gold and silver are the standout movers. GLD trades at 376.93 versus 368.31 (+2.34%), while SLV sits at 45.56 versus 43.92 (+3.74%). The advance arrives even with medium- and long-term inflation expectations largely stable, suggesting diversification demand, policy hedging, or technical momentum as likely drivers. Market commentary has posited that a “debasement trade” remains alive—an argument that appears compatible with today’s flows.
Energy is more muted. USO is essentially flat to slightly positive at 71.32 versus 71.26 (+0.08%). Broad commodities via DBC are firmer at 23.03 versus 22.90 (+0.55%). Natural gas (UNG) is modestly lower at 13.89 versus 13.95 (-0.41%). The energy sector’s equity underperformance (XLE lower even as USO ticks up slightly) points to company-specific dynamics—capital allocation, dividend sensitivity to long-end yields, or idiosyncratic headlines—rather than a clear read-through from front-month crude.
FX and crypto: dollar mixed, crypto softer intraday
On FX, EURUSD marks around 1.155 midday, roughly in line with recent ranges according to the provided snapshot; no broader inferences are made from the limited intraday data. In digital assets, bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks near 105,347, down about 0.8% from its open, and ether (ETHUSD) is around 3,528, down about 2.5% from its open. Articles this morning discuss bitcoin’s stalled relief rally and the challenge of returning to record highs by year-end, as well as a tight historical correlation between bitcoin and tech heavy indices. Today’s tape shows a modest decoupling—tech is bid while crypto is softer—reminding investors that cross-asset linkages can weaken over shorter windows, particularly around policy and positioning catalysts.
Putting it together
The midday picture reflects a market attempting to look through near-term policy noise. Equities are stronger with leadership in technology and improving breadth via small caps. Bond proxies are slightly weaker as the yield curve remains elevated at the long end. Precious metals are attracting capital even as inflation expectations stay anchored, and crypto is consolidating. The news flow around AI remains two-sided—constructive on infrastructure demand and critical of unchecked spending—but today’s market response favors the secular build-out narrative.
What to watch next
- Shutdown negotiations and operational impacts. Several reports suggest progress toward a deal, yet flight disruptions and soft sentiment readings remain immediate headwinds.
- AI capex and supply chain signals. Updates on wafer supply requests, data center build financing, and hyperscaler bond markets are key to gauging durability of the AI cycle.
- Consumer behavior into the holidays. Payments ecosystem developments (e.g., Visa/Mastercard settlement contours), quick-service value strategies, and travel demand commentary will help triangulate spending resilience.
- Rates stability. Another bout of Treasury volatility could quickly alter leadership across equities and reset risk appetite. No specific economic release calendar was provided in the payload, but the next inflation and labor updates will matter for the curve and multiples.
Risks
- Prolonged shutdown with deepening operational and confidence effects.
- Policy shifts on tariffs and benefits that alter household cash flow and corporate cost structures.
- AI spending fatigue or financing strain that undercuts high-multiple tech.
- A renewed back-up in long-end yields that pressures duration-sensitive assets and valuation-rich equities.
- Crypto drawdowns spilling over into risk sentiment if correlations re-tighten.
Overall, midday trade is constructive, with the balance of evidence pointing to incremental risk-on positioning led by technology and supported by improving breadth. That stance remains conditional on rates stability and progress on policy fronts highlighted in today’s news flow.