State of Market: Midday 11/26/25
Midday Market Brief: Equities climb into Thanksgiving eve as curve steepens, gold and oil advance, crypto rallies
Mega-cap AI narratives stay in focus, while a modestly steeper Treasury curve underpins Financials; Energy, precious metals and broad commodities firm; the dollar eases versus the euro as Bitcoin and Ether extend gains
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Overview
U.S. equities are firmer at midday on the eve of Thanksgiving, with gains broadening across large caps and small caps while key macro backdrops—yields, inflation expectations, and the dollar—remain supportive. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) is trading at 681.13, up from yesterday’s close of 675.02. The Nasdaq-100 proxy (QQQ) is at 615.52 versus 608.89 previously, the Dow proxy (DIA) sits at 475.32 versus 471.18, and small caps (IWM) are at 247.48 versus 245.13. The advance aligns with a modestly steeper Treasury curve, resilient labor and investment headlines, and ongoing rotation within the AI complex, where hardware supply chains, in-house chips, and cloud infrastructure commitments continue to reset expectations.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields (last reported for 2025-11-24) show an upward slope from the 2-year to the long end: 2-year at 3.46%, 5-year at 3.61%, 10-year at 4.04%, and 30-year at 4.68%. The very short end is roughly flat to the 10-year (1-month 4.03%, 3-month 3.91%, 1-year 3.61%), suggesting a curve that has moved closer to normal over recent weeks, with term premiums evident beyond the 10-year. A curve configuration like this typically supports Financials via net interest margin dynamics and tempers near-term recession signaling that dominated during deep inversions.
Inflation data (latest available September 2025) show headline CPI at 324.368 and core CPI at 330.542 (index levels). Market-based inflation expectations remain anchored near the Federal Reserve’s long-run goalposts: 5-year breakeven 2.36%, 10-year breakeven 2.31%, and a 5y5y forward at 2.25%. Model-implied expectations sit at 2.74% for 1 year, 2.32% for 5 years, 2.29% for 10 years, and 2.42% at 30 years. In practical terms, that mix—anchored long-run expectations with a near-term inflation print that has cooled from prior peaks—helps keep the long end contained near 4%–5% and reduces the odds of a near-term policy shock, a constructive cocktail for risk assets into year-end.
At the same time, the policy and labor tapes matter for discount rates and growth assumptions. New headlines point to jobless claims dropping to a seven-month low, indicating a still-stable labor market, while a separate piece underscores rising business investment, especially tied to AI-related spending, even as traditional manufacturing remains sluggish. Mortgage rates have eased on expectations for policy-rate cuts, which, if sustained, could bolster housing affordability at the margin and consumer sentiment into 2026. All of this supports a soft-landing narrative for now, albeit with known policy and geopolitical caveats.
Equities: broad indices
- SPY 681.13 vs 675.02 previous close: large caps are firmer, consistent with stable long rates and supportive inflation expectations.
- QQQ 615.52 vs 608.89: tech-led benchmarks are up, tracking an ongoing reset in the AI complex where leadership is rotating among platform owners, chip suppliers, and server integrators.
- DIA 475.32 vs 471.18: industrials-heavy exposures are bid as investors balance weak manufacturing commentary with stronger capex on AI and resilient labor prints.
- IWM 247.48 vs 245.13: small caps participate, helped by curve re-steepening and hopes for easing financing conditions in 2026.
Sectors: leadership and laggards
- Financials (XLF 53.06 vs 52.54): up alongside a curve that’s no longer deeply inverted from the front end to the long end, a tailwind for bank net interest margins and insurer asset yields.
- Technology (XLK 284.47 vs 280.46): higher, with the AI narrative evolving. Reports highlight Alphabet’s progress on in-house AI chips, including potential sales to major platforms, and a bullish sell-side view that the company could sell 1 million AI chips by 2027. Elsewhere, servers and integrators see constructive reads as one PC-and-server maker boosted its AI outlook, while some discrete chipmakers face pressure amid competitive concerns and memory cost dynamics. The net effect: rotation within tech, but the sector remains broadly supported.
- Energy (XLE 89.96 vs 88.81): firmer, tracking crude (USO higher) and headlines on financing channels for non-sanctioned Russian oil flows via Indian banks, while U.S. gasoline price narratives into Thanksgiving remain benign after inflation adjustment.
- Health Care (XLV 158.52 vs 158.77): a touch softer. The tape includes mixed drug-pricing and policy headlines and a positive trial update from a weight-loss-drug leader, underscoring continued dispersion within pharma and biotech.
Bonds: duration mixed, long end steadier
Long duration is modestly higher in price at midday: TLT 90.46 vs 90.24 prior close. The 7–10-year proxy is essentially flat to a hair lower (IEF 97.58 vs 97.59), and the short end (SHY 83.07 vs 83.09) is just below yesterday’s mark. This is consistent with a curve that has limited near-term policy-risk premium but retains some term premium farther out the curve. With market-based inflation expectations hovering near 2.3%–2.4%, the 10-year around 4.04% implies a real yield consistent with a modest growth path—supportive for equities so long as earnings delivery remains credible.
Commodities: precious metals and energy bid
- Gold (GLD 383.40 vs 380.08): higher. Interest in strategic allocations remains supported by anchored long-run inflation expectations, policy-uncertainty headlines, and fresh calls for structurally higher gold prices later in the decade. A noted bank forecast highlighted the potential for significantly higher nominal price targets by 2026–2027, which may be contributing to dip-buying psychology.
- Silver (SLV 48.21 vs 46.67): extends gains, often moving with gold and cyclical reflation proxies.
- Crude oil (USO 69.69 vs 69.25): firmer into the holiday period, with global trade and financing headlines intersecting with OPEC+ supply discipline narratives (not updated in today’s feed) and seasonal considerations. Broad commodities (DBC 22.74 vs 22.52) also advance, consistent with firmer energy and metals.
- Natural gas (UNG 14.07 vs 13.83): up, reflecting ongoing weather, storage, and LNG-flow sensitivities into winter.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD 1.1588 vs an open of 1.1570 (mark): the euro is marginally higher, implying a slightly softer U.S. dollar tone at midday. A gentler dollar tends to be supportive for commodities and multinational earnings translations.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD 90,368 mark vs 87,200 open; day range observed in the feed 86,258–90,462) and Ether (ETHUSD 3,039 mark vs 2,930 open; day range 2,887–3,047) are both higher. While one column argues Bitcoin remains in a bear market and overvalued relative to a fair-value estimate, today’s price action shows dip demand ahead of lower-liquidity holiday trading. As always, volatility remains elevated.
Notable themes and company headlines
- AI platform and chip dynamics: Reports highlight Alphabet’s momentum, including potential chip sales to peers and a path to selling 1 million AI chips by 2027. That strength has, at times, weighed on other AI chip leaders amid concerns over custom-silicon competition and rising memory costs, though some argue recent selloffs are fear-driven rather than fundamental. Separately, a server OEM boosted its outlook on AI systems, and another mega-cap cloud provider detailed plans to spend up to $50 billion building AI infrastructure for the U.S. government starting in 2026. Taken together, the AI capex cycle is broadening across hyperscalers, sovereigns, and enterprises.
- Retail and the consumer: The holiday shopping season is in focus. Multiple reports caution that not all Black Friday deals are true discounts due to price cycling and tariffs, while a department-store chain delivered better-than-expected results and rallied earlier in the week. An apparel retailer also posted upside on a turnaround at its namesake brand. Meanwhile, a specialty off-price retailer missed on sales amid weather-related traffic issues, illustrating dispersion within consumer discretionary. Box office projections for Thanksgiving are solid but below last year’s record, keeping expectations realistic for media names.
- Industrials and cyclicals: An agriculture and construction equipment manufacturer offered a disappointing outlook, suggesting the ag downcycle has not yet bottomed. In contrast, business investment tied to AI continues to accelerate, offsetting manufacturing softness in some subsectors. Such crosscurrents are visible in the Dow proxy’s gains alongside lingering caution in old-economy niches.
- Health policy and pricing: Headlines point to easing mortgage rates, ongoing debate over rate cuts, and potential policy shifts at the Federal Reserve, with speculation about leadership changes before Christmas. In health care, drug-pricing developments for Medicare beneficiaries and new trial data for weight-loss treatments continued to drive stock-specific moves, even as the sector ETF edged slightly lower midday.
- Commodities and geopolitics: Reports that Indian banks may finance non-sanctioned Russian oil trades suggest continued adaptability in global energy flows. Metals markets remain attuned to supply/disruption narratives, and a high-profile gold forecast is aiding sentiment in precious metals.
Bottom line
The midday tone is constructive: equities higher, commodities firmer, crypto bid, the dollar a touch softer, and the Treasury curve modestly steeper than at the start of autumn. With long-run inflation expectations anchored and the labor market steady, positioning into a holiday-shortened week favors a tentative risk-on skew—so long as policy and earnings surprises remain contained. Within tech, leadership breadth depends on the balance between custom silicon initiatives, third-party chip providers, and the pace of AI server absorption. In cyclicals, Energy strength contrasts with lingering caution in agriculture and certain consumer segments.
What to watch next
- Macro: upcoming labor-market signals (claims, job openings, wage trends) and any guidance from Fed officials on the pace and timing of prospective rate cuts.
- Policy: headlines around potential changes at the Federal Reserve and the contours of the administration’s health-care proposals.
- AI capex and supply chain: further clarity on cloud and sovereign demand, memory pricing, and delivery timelines for AI servers and accelerators.
- Holiday consumer data: real-time spending patterns through Black Friday/Cyber Monday, retailer commentary on promotions, and margin implications.
- Energy and metals: oil trade financing developments, inventory data, and any updates that could influence the supply/demand balance into year-end.
Risks
- Policy uncertainty: potential Fed leadership changes and shifting rate-cut expectations could quickly alter discount-rate assumptions.
- Competitive dynamics in AI: in-house chip developments and memory-cost swings can re-rate parts of the tech complex.
- Consumer sensitivity: uneven promotional activity and tariff-related price increases could weigh on discretionary spending and retailer margins.
- Geopolitical energy risks: evolving mechanisms for financing and moving crude could alter price dynamics and volatility.
- Liquidity: holiday-thinned markets can amplify price moves across equities, commodities, and crypto.
Overview
U.S. equities are firmer at midday on the eve of Thanksgiving, with gains broadening across large caps and small caps while key macro backdrops—yields, inflation expectations, and the dollar—remain supportive. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) is trading at 681.13, up from yesterday’s close of 675.02. The Nasdaq-100 proxy (QQQ) is at 615.52 versus 608.89 previously, the Dow proxy (DIA) sits at 475.32 versus 471.18, and small caps (IWM) are at 247.48 versus 245.13. The advance aligns with a modestly steeper Treasury curve, resilient labor and investment headlines, and ongoing rotation within the AI complex, where hardware supply chains, in-house chips, and cloud infrastructure commitments continue to reset expectations.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields (last reported for 2025-11-24) show an upward slope from the 2-year to the long end: 2-year at 3.46%, 5-year at 3.61%, 10-year at 4.04%, and 30-year at 4.68%. The very short end is roughly flat to the 10-year (1-month 4.03%, 3-month 3.91%, 1-year 3.61%), suggesting a curve that has moved closer to normal over recent weeks, with term premiums evident beyond the 10-year. A curve configuration like this typically supports Financials via net interest margin dynamics and tempers near-term recession signaling that dominated during deep inversions.
Inflation data (latest available September 2025) show headline CPI at 324.368 and core CPI at 330.542 (index levels). Market-based inflation expectations remain anchored near the Federal Reserve’s long-run goalposts: 5-year breakeven 2.36%, 10-year breakeven 2.31%, and a 5y5y forward at 2.25%. Model-implied expectations sit at 2.74% for 1 year, 2.32% for 5 years, 2.29% for 10 years, and 2.42% at 30 years. In practical terms, that mix—anchored long-run expectations with a near-term inflation print that has cooled from prior peaks—helps keep the long end contained near 4%–5% and reduces the odds of a near-term policy shock, a constructive cocktail for risk assets into year-end.
At the same time, the policy and labor tapes matter for discount rates and growth assumptions. New headlines point to jobless claims dropping to a seven-month low, indicating a still-stable labor market, while a separate piece underscores rising business investment, especially tied to AI-related spending, even as traditional manufacturing remains sluggish. Mortgage rates have eased on expectations for policy-rate cuts, which, if sustained, could bolster housing affordability at the margin and consumer sentiment into 2026. All of this supports a soft-landing narrative for now, albeit with known policy and geopolitical caveats.
Equities: broad indices
- SPY 681.13 vs 675.02 previous close: large caps are firmer, consistent with stable long rates and supportive inflation expectations.
- QQQ 615.52 vs 608.89: tech-led benchmarks are up, tracking an ongoing reset in the AI complex where leadership is rotating among platform owners, chip suppliers, and server integrators.
- DIA 475.32 vs 471.18: industrials-heavy exposures are bid as investors balance weak manufacturing commentary with stronger capex on AI and resilient labor prints.
- IWM 247.48 vs 245.13: small caps participate, helped by curve re-steepening and hopes for easing financing conditions in 2026.
Sectors: leadership and laggards
- Financials (XLF 53.06 vs 52.54): up alongside a curve that’s no longer deeply inverted from the front end to the long end, a tailwind for bank net interest margins and insurer asset yields.
- Technology (XLK 284.47 vs 280.46): higher, with the AI narrative evolving. Reports highlight Alphabet’s progress on in-house AI chips, including potential sales to major platforms, and a bullish sell-side view that the company could sell 1 million AI chips by 2027. Elsewhere, servers and integrators see constructive reads as one PC-and-server maker boosted its AI outlook, while some discrete chipmakers face pressure amid competitive concerns and memory cost dynamics. The net effect: rotation within tech, but the sector remains broadly supported.
- Energy (XLE 89.96 vs 88.81): firmer, tracking crude (USO higher) and headlines on financing channels for non-sanctioned Russian oil flows via Indian banks, while U.S. gasoline price narratives into Thanksgiving remain benign after inflation adjustment.
- Health Care (XLV 158.52 vs 158.77): a touch softer. The tape includes mixed drug-pricing and policy headlines and a positive trial update from a weight-loss-drug leader, underscoring continued dispersion within pharma and biotech.
Bonds: duration mixed, long end steadier
Long duration is modestly higher in price at midday: TLT 90.46 vs 90.24 prior close. The 7–10-year proxy is essentially flat to a hair lower (IEF 97.58 vs 97.59), and the short end (SHY 83.07 vs 83.09) is just below yesterday’s mark. This is consistent with a curve that has limited near-term policy-risk premium but retains some term premium farther out the curve. With market-based inflation expectations hovering near 2.3%–2.4%, the 10-year around 4.04% implies a real yield consistent with a modest growth path—supportive for equities so long as earnings delivery remains credible.
Commodities: precious metals and energy bid
- Gold (GLD 383.40 vs 380.08): higher. Interest in strategic allocations remains supported by anchored long-run inflation expectations, policy-uncertainty headlines, and fresh calls for structurally higher gold prices later in the decade. A noted bank forecast highlighted the potential for significantly higher nominal price targets by 2026–2027, which may be contributing to dip-buying psychology.
- Silver (SLV 48.21 vs 46.67): extends gains, often moving with gold and cyclical reflation proxies.
- Crude oil (USO 69.69 vs 69.25): firmer into the holiday period, with global trade and financing headlines intersecting with OPEC+ supply discipline narratives (not updated in today’s feed) and seasonal considerations. Broad commodities (DBC 22.74 vs 22.52) also advance, consistent with firmer energy and metals.
- Natural gas (UNG 14.07 vs 13.83): up, reflecting ongoing weather, storage, and LNG-flow sensitivities into winter.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD 1.1588 vs an open of 1.1570 (mark): the euro is marginally higher, implying a slightly softer U.S. dollar tone at midday. A gentler dollar tends to be supportive for commodities and multinational earnings translations.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD 90,368 mark vs 87,200 open; day range observed in the feed 86,258–90,462) and Ether (ETHUSD 3,039 mark vs 2,930 open; day range 2,887–3,047) are both higher. While one column argues Bitcoin remains in a bear market and overvalued relative to a fair-value estimate, today’s price action shows dip demand ahead of lower-liquidity holiday trading. As always, volatility remains elevated.
Notable themes and company headlines
- AI platform and chip dynamics: Reports highlight Alphabet’s momentum, including potential chip sales to peers and a path to selling 1 million AI chips by 2027. That strength has, at times, weighed on other AI chip leaders amid concerns over custom-silicon competition and rising memory costs, though some argue recent selloffs are fear-driven rather than fundamental. Separately, a server OEM boosted its outlook on AI systems, and another mega-cap cloud provider detailed plans to spend up to $50 billion building AI infrastructure for the U.S. government starting in 2026. Taken together, the AI capex cycle is broadening across hyperscalers, sovereigns, and enterprises.
- Retail and the consumer: The holiday shopping season is in focus. Multiple reports caution that not all Black Friday deals are true discounts due to price cycling and tariffs, while a department-store chain delivered better-than-expected results and rallied earlier in the week. An apparel retailer also posted upside on a turnaround at its namesake brand. Meanwhile, a specialty off-price retailer missed on sales amid weather-related traffic issues, illustrating dispersion within consumer discretionary. Box office projections for Thanksgiving are solid but below last year’s record, keeping expectations realistic for media names.
- Industrials and cyclicals: An agriculture and construction equipment manufacturer offered a disappointing outlook, suggesting the ag downcycle has not yet bottomed. In contrast, business investment tied to AI continues to accelerate, offsetting manufacturing softness in some subsectors. Such crosscurrents are visible in the Dow proxy’s gains alongside lingering caution in old-economy niches.
- Health policy and pricing: Headlines point to easing mortgage rates, ongoing debate over rate cuts, and potential policy shifts at the Federal Reserve, with speculation about leadership changes before Christmas. In health care, drug-pricing developments for Medicare beneficiaries and new trial data for weight-loss treatments continued to drive stock-specific moves, even as the sector ETF edged slightly lower midday.
- Commodities and geopolitics: Reports that Indian banks may finance non-sanctioned Russian oil trades suggest continued adaptability in global energy flows. Metals markets remain attuned to supply/disruption narratives, and a high-profile gold forecast is aiding sentiment in precious metals.
Bottom line
The midday tone is constructive: equities higher, commodities firmer, crypto bid, the dollar a touch softer, and the Treasury curve modestly steeper than at the start of autumn. With long-run inflation expectations anchored and the labor market steady, positioning into a holiday-shortened week favors a tentative risk-on skew—so long as policy and earnings surprises remain contained. Within tech, leadership breadth depends on the balance between custom silicon initiatives, third-party chip providers, and the pace of AI server absorption. In cyclicals, Energy strength contrasts with lingering caution in agriculture and certain consumer segments.
What to watch next
- Macro: upcoming labor-market signals (claims, job openings, wage trends) and any guidance from Fed officials on the pace and timing of prospective rate cuts.
- Policy: headlines around potential changes at the Federal Reserve and the contours of the administration’s health-care proposals.
- AI capex and supply chain: further clarity on cloud and sovereign demand, memory pricing, and delivery timelines for AI servers and accelerators.
- Holiday consumer data: real-time spending patterns through Black Friday/Cyber Monday, retailer commentary on promotions, and margin implications.
- Energy and metals: oil trade financing developments, inventory data, and any updates that could influence the supply/demand balance into year-end.
Risks
- Policy uncertainty: potential Fed leadership changes and shifting rate-cut expectations could quickly alter discount-rate assumptions.
- Competitive dynamics in AI: in-house chip developments and memory-cost swings can re-rate parts of the tech complex.
- Consumer sensitivity: uneven promotional activity and tariff-related price increases could weigh on discretionary spending and retailer margins.
- Geopolitical energy risks: evolving mechanisms for financing and moving crude could alter price dynamics and volatility.
- Liquidity: holiday-thinned markets can amplify price moves across equities, commodities, and crypto.