State of Market: Close 11/12/25
Dow leads into the close as financials and health care outperform; gold surges while oil slides with shutdown end in sight
10-year Treasury sits at 4.11% and curve remains positively sloped vs 2-year; SPY ends marginally higher, QQQ slips, DIA outperforms; GLD and SLV rally as USO drops; euro firms versus dollar while crypto softens
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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Overview
A mixed but orderly close wrapped a session defined by rotation beneath a calm headline index tape. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) finished essentially flat-to-up, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) edged lower and the Dow (DIA) outperformed. Sector leadership skewed toward financials and health care, with technology mixed and small caps softer. In macro, the last available Treasury snapshot shows a positively sloped curve from 2s to 10s and a higher long end, consistent with the mild bid for duration seen in bond ETFs into the close. Commodities diverged sharply: gold and silver rallied, crude oil fell, and broad commodities weakened. The euro firmed against the dollar, while Bitcoin and Ether slipped.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Based on the latest Treasury data provided (as of 2025-11-07), the 2-year yield stands at 3.55%, the 5-year at 3.67%, the 10-year at 4.11%, and the 30-year at 4.70%. The curve between 2s and 10s is positively sloped by roughly 56 basis points, and the additional term premium is evident out the curve with 30s at 4.70%. While today’s tick-by-tick yield moves are not provided, the shape of the curve aligns with a market that has recalibrated away from the deepest inversion of prior periods.
Inflation data in the payload remain the September CPI index level at 324.368 and core CPI index at 330.542 (both index levels, not growth rates). Inflation expectations are anchored in the low-2s on a market-implied basis: 5-year at 2.36% and 10-year at 2.31%, with the 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A 1-year model estimate sits higher at 2.745%, a familiar pattern where near-term readings run above longer-term anchors. That configuration is not inconsistent with today’s cross-asset performance: a bid for gold and silver as hedges or portfolio ballast can coexist with contained long-term inflation breakevens and steady longer-dated real rates.
The policy and data calendar remains unusually fluid due to the prolonged federal government shutdown, which is reportedly nearing an end. The White House indicated October jobs and inflation reports may not be released at all, underscoring potential gaps in the data that investors typically rely on to calibrate macro views. Multiple outlets also detail how the reopening could be operationally complex, with a flood of delayed releases possible after government operations resume. In the interim, a MarketWatch summary cited weekly ADP figures pointing to private-sector job shedding in late October, suggesting a softer labor pulse heading into Q4. Each of these elements contributes to the market’s current posture: measured in risk assets, supported by cyclical rotation, but hedged with precious metals and duration.
Equities
At the index level, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) last traded at 683.33 versus a previous close of 683.00, a marginal gain of about 0.05%. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) finished at 621.04 versus 621.57, down about 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) led with a last trade at 482.78 compared with 479.41 previously, up roughly 0.70%. Small caps lagged: the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed at 243.64 versus 244.24, down about 0.25%.
The intra-market rotation was consistent with the news flow and sector tape. Several articles highlighted the prospect of the shutdown ending and a subsequent catch-up in withheld government data releases. That backdrop can favor economically sensitive exposures embedded in the Dow, even as the Nasdaq’s technology concentration makes it more idiosyncratic to company-specific AI and semiconductor headlines. Indeed, technology narratives were two-sided in the feed. MarketWatch noted that AMD shared large long-term targets at its investor day, and CNBC flagged the tech-led tone early on. Offsetting that enthusiasm, MarketWatch reported SoftBank fully exited Nvidia to pursue broader AI bets, a reminder that capital allocation across the AI stack may evolve even for marquee names. Likewise, articles around CoreWeave were mixed—one highlighting an earnings beat and the endurance of the AI trade, another pointing to a data-center delay—reinforcing the idea that today’s tech tape was mixed rather than unidirectional.
Sector performance
- Financials (XLF) outperformed, closing at 53.67 versus 53.21 the prior day, up approximately 0.87%. A reliable forward curve and a cyclical tilt can support financials, and today’s Dow leadership was consistent with that bid.
- Technology (XLK) ended at 293.99 vs. 293.01, up about 0.33%, reflecting the mixed but net-positive tone across mega-cap and semiconductor stories in the headlines.
- Health Care (XLV) was a standout, rising to 152.805 from 150.68, a roughly 1.41% gain. Health care’s defensive growth profile can play well when investors balance cyclical exposure with earnings resilience.
- Utilities: The provided quote object shows a utilities symbol (XLU) with a last trade of 89.92 versus 89.71 previously, up about 0.23%, suggesting a modest bid for defensives. (Note: the object key labeled “XLE” references an instrument with symbol XLU; we reference the symbol as provided.)
Several industry-specific headlines dovetail with the sector picture. A MarketWatch note on Eli Lilly’s momentum as it cuts certain drug prices underscores secular tailwinds within health care. On the industrials and energy infrastructure front, CNBC reported Toyota opened a major U.S. battery plant and outlined additional domestic investments, a positive medium-term marker for select industrial supply chains. Additionally, a CNBC feature discussed the growing political scrutiny of AI data centers’ electricity demand in PJM states—an increasingly relevant topic for utilities and grid equipment providers. While we do not have sector-level prints for industrials (XLI) or consumer sectors (XLY/XLP) today, the Dow’s outperformance suggests broader participation beyond the largest-cap tech winners.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs were little changed to modestly higher. The long-duration iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) last traded at 90.115 versus 89.96, up about 0.17%. The 7–10 year segment (IEF) edged up to 96.875 from 96.86, a gain of roughly 0.02%, while the short end (SHY) was essentially flat to slightly lower at 82.855 versus 82.88 (-0.03%). The modest bid for duration lines up with the provided curve snapshot showing higher yields at the long end but a positive slope vs. 2s, and with investors maintaining hedges into policy and data uncertainty around the shutdown resolution.
Commodities
Precious metals rallied decisively. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose to 386.06 versus 379.87, up about 1.63%. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) advanced to 48.345 from 46.45, a roughly 4.08% gain. The move is consistent with portfolio hedging demand as investors balance cyclical equity exposure with hard-asset ballast amid a fluid data backdrop and headline risk.
Energy diverged. United States Oil Fund (USO) fell to 69.79 versus 72.72, down roughly 4.03%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) ticked up to 14.635 from 14.56, up about 0.52%. Broad commodities (DBC) slipped to 23.03 from 23.30, down about 1.16%. Today’s oil weakness arrived alongside a MarketWatch report that the IEA now sees oil and gas demand growing through 2050 on current trajectories—an important long-horizon signal, even as near-term price action reflects shifting supply-demand and macro factors. Additional energy-related headlines highlighted India’s evolving crude sourcing and the operational challenges and political scrutiny of data centers’ power needs, both of which could influence energy markets and infrastructure over time.
FX and crypto
The euro strengthened modestly versus the dollar, with EURUSD marked at about 1.1582, above its provided open. A firmer euro aligns with today’s risk tone outside of tech and with a gentle bid in duration and precious metals. In digital assets, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was marked near 101,560, down from an open of about 103,236 and within a day range of roughly 100,769 to 105,353. Ether (ETHUSD) traded around 3,413, below its open near 3,444, within a range of about 3,370 to 3,589. A soft crypto tape alongside gains in gold and silver suggests diversified hedging behavior across investor cohorts.
Notable developments from the news flow
- Shutdown dynamics: Multiple reports indicate the House planned to vote to end the shutdown today, with flight cancellations easing and carriers warning of lingering schedule adjustments even after reopening. The White House cautioned that October jobs and inflation data may never be released, which could complicate macro assessment. MarketWatch also highlighted that stocks and gold had been rallying on hopes of a resolution—consistent with today’s mix of positive equity rotation and precious metals strength.
- Labor and data: A MarketWatch piece flagged ADP’s weekly data reflecting private sector job losses in late October, a reminder that the labor market may be slowing on the margin even as risk assets remain resilient.
- Technology and AI: AMD’s investor day “giant numbers” energized segments of the tech complex, according to MarketWatch, while the SoftBank exit from Nvidia underscored that capital commitments to AI may be broadening beyond a single name. Meanwhile, CNBC coverage of rising electricity prices and data-center power demands spotlights a growing cost and infrastructure issue for utilities, grid equipment, and the tech ecosystem.
- Energy: MarketWatch cited the IEA’s updated view that oil demand could keep growing through 2050 on current paths. Separately, Bloomberg detailed shifts in Indian purchases of Russian crude. These long- and near-term energy currents contrast with today’s sharp drop in oil proxies, reminding investors to disentangle structural trajectories from cyclical price action.
- Corporate and policy: Toyota confirmed major U.S. battery investments, which support domestic industrial activity. On the policy front, MarketWatch reported Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s planned retirement next year, opening a future personnel aperture for the administration. MarketWatch also noted discussion of potential $2,000 checks to households tied to tariffs; while details are fluid, such proposals add to the mosaic of fiscal-policy uncertainty investors are weighing.
Bottom line
Into the close, the tape showed a rotation-friendly profile: Dow strength, financials and health care leadership, and a gentle bid to duration and precious metals. Technology was mixed, small caps lagged, and oil weakened—an internally diverse session against a backdrop of nearing shutdown resolution, data gaps, and evolving narratives in AI, energy, and policy. With the curve’s 2s–10s spread positive in the provided data and long-run inflation expectations steady, investors appear to be balancing cyclical exposure with quality and hedges rather than crowding into a single macro bet.
What to watch next
- Timing and mechanics of the shutdown’s end, including the cadence of delayed economic data releases once agencies reopen.
- Any confirmation on whether October jobs and inflation reports will be published, and if not, how agencies will bridge data continuity.
- Follow-through in sector leadership: do financials and health care maintain relative strength if the Dow’s outperformance persists?
- Energy price stability after today’s oil decline; watch whether utilities and grid-related narratives around AI data-center power demand continue to influence factor leadership.
- Tech leadership breadth in light of AMD-related enthusiasm, SoftBank’s Nvidia exit, and mixed CoreWeave headlines.
Overview
A mixed but orderly close wrapped a session defined by rotation beneath a calm headline index tape. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) finished essentially flat-to-up, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) edged lower and the Dow (DIA) outperformed. Sector leadership skewed toward financials and health care, with technology mixed and small caps softer. In macro, the last available Treasury snapshot shows a positively sloped curve from 2s to 10s and a higher long end, consistent with the mild bid for duration seen in bond ETFs into the close. Commodities diverged sharply: gold and silver rallied, crude oil fell, and broad commodities weakened. The euro firmed against the dollar, while Bitcoin and Ether slipped.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Based on the latest Treasury data provided (as of 2025-11-07), the 2-year yield stands at 3.55%, the 5-year at 3.67%, the 10-year at 4.11%, and the 30-year at 4.70%. The curve between 2s and 10s is positively sloped by roughly 56 basis points, and the additional term premium is evident out the curve with 30s at 4.70%. While today’s tick-by-tick yield moves are not provided, the shape of the curve aligns with a market that has recalibrated away from the deepest inversion of prior periods.
Inflation data in the payload remain the September CPI index level at 324.368 and core CPI index at 330.542 (both index levels, not growth rates). Inflation expectations are anchored in the low-2s on a market-implied basis: 5-year at 2.36% and 10-year at 2.31%, with the 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A 1-year model estimate sits higher at 2.745%, a familiar pattern where near-term readings run above longer-term anchors. That configuration is not inconsistent with today’s cross-asset performance: a bid for gold and silver as hedges or portfolio ballast can coexist with contained long-term inflation breakevens and steady longer-dated real rates.
The policy and data calendar remains unusually fluid due to the prolonged federal government shutdown, which is reportedly nearing an end. The White House indicated October jobs and inflation reports may not be released at all, underscoring potential gaps in the data that investors typically rely on to calibrate macro views. Multiple outlets also detail how the reopening could be operationally complex, with a flood of delayed releases possible after government operations resume. In the interim, a MarketWatch summary cited weekly ADP figures pointing to private-sector job shedding in late October, suggesting a softer labor pulse heading into Q4. Each of these elements contributes to the market’s current posture: measured in risk assets, supported by cyclical rotation, but hedged with precious metals and duration.
Equities
At the index level, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) last traded at 683.33 versus a previous close of 683.00, a marginal gain of about 0.05%. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) finished at 621.04 versus 621.57, down about 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) led with a last trade at 482.78 compared with 479.41 previously, up roughly 0.70%. Small caps lagged: the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) closed at 243.64 versus 244.24, down about 0.25%.
The intra-market rotation was consistent with the news flow and sector tape. Several articles highlighted the prospect of the shutdown ending and a subsequent catch-up in withheld government data releases. That backdrop can favor economically sensitive exposures embedded in the Dow, even as the Nasdaq’s technology concentration makes it more idiosyncratic to company-specific AI and semiconductor headlines. Indeed, technology narratives were two-sided in the feed. MarketWatch noted that AMD shared large long-term targets at its investor day, and CNBC flagged the tech-led tone early on. Offsetting that enthusiasm, MarketWatch reported SoftBank fully exited Nvidia to pursue broader AI bets, a reminder that capital allocation across the AI stack may evolve even for marquee names. Likewise, articles around CoreWeave were mixed—one highlighting an earnings beat and the endurance of the AI trade, another pointing to a data-center delay—reinforcing the idea that today’s tech tape was mixed rather than unidirectional.
Sector performance
- Financials (XLF) outperformed, closing at 53.67 versus 53.21 the prior day, up approximately 0.87%. A reliable forward curve and a cyclical tilt can support financials, and today’s Dow leadership was consistent with that bid.
- Technology (XLK) ended at 293.99 vs. 293.01, up about 0.33%, reflecting the mixed but net-positive tone across mega-cap and semiconductor stories in the headlines.
- Health Care (XLV) was a standout, rising to 152.805 from 150.68, a roughly 1.41% gain. Health care’s defensive growth profile can play well when investors balance cyclical exposure with earnings resilience.
- Utilities: The provided quote object shows a utilities symbol (XLU) with a last trade of 89.92 versus 89.71 previously, up about 0.23%, suggesting a modest bid for defensives. (Note: the object key labeled “XLE” references an instrument with symbol XLU; we reference the symbol as provided.)
Several industry-specific headlines dovetail with the sector picture. A MarketWatch note on Eli Lilly’s momentum as it cuts certain drug prices underscores secular tailwinds within health care. On the industrials and energy infrastructure front, CNBC reported Toyota opened a major U.S. battery plant and outlined additional domestic investments, a positive medium-term marker for select industrial supply chains. Additionally, a CNBC feature discussed the growing political scrutiny of AI data centers’ electricity demand in PJM states—an increasingly relevant topic for utilities and grid equipment providers. While we do not have sector-level prints for industrials (XLI) or consumer sectors (XLY/XLP) today, the Dow’s outperformance suggests broader participation beyond the largest-cap tech winners.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs were little changed to modestly higher. The long-duration iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) last traded at 90.115 versus 89.96, up about 0.17%. The 7–10 year segment (IEF) edged up to 96.875 from 96.86, a gain of roughly 0.02%, while the short end (SHY) was essentially flat to slightly lower at 82.855 versus 82.88 (-0.03%). The modest bid for duration lines up with the provided curve snapshot showing higher yields at the long end but a positive slope vs. 2s, and with investors maintaining hedges into policy and data uncertainty around the shutdown resolution.
Commodities
Precious metals rallied decisively. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose to 386.06 versus 379.87, up about 1.63%. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) advanced to 48.345 from 46.45, a roughly 4.08% gain. The move is consistent with portfolio hedging demand as investors balance cyclical equity exposure with hard-asset ballast amid a fluid data backdrop and headline risk.
Energy diverged. United States Oil Fund (USO) fell to 69.79 versus 72.72, down roughly 4.03%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) ticked up to 14.635 from 14.56, up about 0.52%. Broad commodities (DBC) slipped to 23.03 from 23.30, down about 1.16%. Today’s oil weakness arrived alongside a MarketWatch report that the IEA now sees oil and gas demand growing through 2050 on current trajectories—an important long-horizon signal, even as near-term price action reflects shifting supply-demand and macro factors. Additional energy-related headlines highlighted India’s evolving crude sourcing and the operational challenges and political scrutiny of data centers’ power needs, both of which could influence energy markets and infrastructure over time.
FX and crypto
The euro strengthened modestly versus the dollar, with EURUSD marked at about 1.1582, above its provided open. A firmer euro aligns with today’s risk tone outside of tech and with a gentle bid in duration and precious metals. In digital assets, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was marked near 101,560, down from an open of about 103,236 and within a day range of roughly 100,769 to 105,353. Ether (ETHUSD) traded around 3,413, below its open near 3,444, within a range of about 3,370 to 3,589. A soft crypto tape alongside gains in gold and silver suggests diversified hedging behavior across investor cohorts.
Notable developments from the news flow
- Shutdown dynamics: Multiple reports indicate the House planned to vote to end the shutdown today, with flight cancellations easing and carriers warning of lingering schedule adjustments even after reopening. The White House cautioned that October jobs and inflation data may never be released, which could complicate macro assessment. MarketWatch also highlighted that stocks and gold had been rallying on hopes of a resolution—consistent with today’s mix of positive equity rotation and precious metals strength.
- Labor and data: A MarketWatch piece flagged ADP’s weekly data reflecting private sector job losses in late October, a reminder that the labor market may be slowing on the margin even as risk assets remain resilient.
- Technology and AI: AMD’s investor day “giant numbers” energized segments of the tech complex, according to MarketWatch, while the SoftBank exit from Nvidia underscored that capital commitments to AI may be broadening beyond a single name. Meanwhile, CNBC coverage of rising electricity prices and data-center power demands spotlights a growing cost and infrastructure issue for utilities, grid equipment, and the tech ecosystem.
- Energy: MarketWatch cited the IEA’s updated view that oil demand could keep growing through 2050 on current paths. Separately, Bloomberg detailed shifts in Indian purchases of Russian crude. These long- and near-term energy currents contrast with today’s sharp drop in oil proxies, reminding investors to disentangle structural trajectories from cyclical price action.
- Corporate and policy: Toyota confirmed major U.S. battery investments, which support domestic industrial activity. On the policy front, MarketWatch reported Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s planned retirement next year, opening a future personnel aperture for the administration. MarketWatch also noted discussion of potential $2,000 checks to households tied to tariffs; while details are fluid, such proposals add to the mosaic of fiscal-policy uncertainty investors are weighing.
Bottom line
Into the close, the tape showed a rotation-friendly profile: Dow strength, financials and health care leadership, and a gentle bid to duration and precious metals. Technology was mixed, small caps lagged, and oil weakened—an internally diverse session against a backdrop of nearing shutdown resolution, data gaps, and evolving narratives in AI, energy, and policy. With the curve’s 2s–10s spread positive in the provided data and long-run inflation expectations steady, investors appear to be balancing cyclical exposure with quality and hedges rather than crowding into a single macro bet.
What to watch next
- Timing and mechanics of the shutdown’s end, including the cadence of delayed economic data releases once agencies reopen.
- Any confirmation on whether October jobs and inflation reports will be published, and if not, how agencies will bridge data continuity.
- Follow-through in sector leadership: do financials and health care maintain relative strength if the Dow’s outperformance persists?
- Energy price stability after today’s oil decline; watch whether utilities and grid-related narratives around AI data-center power demand continue to influence factor leadership.
- Tech leadership breadth in light of AMD-related enthusiasm, SoftBank’s Nvidia exit, and mixed CoreWeave headlines.