State of Market: Close 11/07/25
At the bell: Tech lags while small caps, energy and financials steady the tape; gold climbs as long-end rates edge higher
Shutdown strains, mixed labor signals and valuation jitters frame a rotation-heavy finish: SPY little changed, QQQ underperforms, IWM leads; gold and oil firm, euro gains vs. dollar; bitcoin rebounds above 100,000 despite bearish headlines
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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Markets closed a choppy week with a mixed, rotation-driven session that featured continued pressure on mega-cap technology and relative strength in small caps, financials and energy. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) finished fractionally higher, the Dow proxy (DIA) was modestly positive, while the Nasdaq 100 tracker (QQQ) underperformed. Under the surface, sector leadership reflected shifting macro currents—firmer commodity prices and a softer dollar aided energy and precious metals, while bond ETFs sent a nuanced signal with slight gains at the front and belly of the curve but a dip in long duration.
Macro backdrop: policy, growth and inflation expectations
The policy environment remained a key overhang. Reports highlighted that the record government shutdown is “starting to bite the economy,” with the Senate struggling to forge a deal and the FAA set to reduce flight capacity at 40 major airports by 10% (MarketWatch; CNBC). Consumer sentiment was described as falling toward near-record lows as shutdown anxiety persists (MarketWatch). On the labor front, signals were mixed: Challenger reported October job cuts at a 22-year high (CNBC), yet state-level jobless claims analysis suggested conditions aren’t as bleak as headlines imply (MarketWatch), while other commentary characterized the job market as cooling but not collapsing (CNBC). Those crosscurrents have contributed to wide swings in Treasurys as investors debate the trajectory for growth (MarketWatch).
Against that backdrop, the Treasury yield snapshot shows a modestly upward-sloping curve from the 2-year to the 10-year: 2-year at 3.63%, 5-year at 3.76%, 10-year at 4.17%, and 30-year at 4.74% (data as of 11/05). Inflation readings (September CPI index 324.368 and core CPI 330.542) and expectations remain contained in the medium term: market-based 5-year and 10-year breakevens at roughly 2.36% and 2.31%, with a 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A one-year model estimate around 2.74% sits above those medium-term anchors. In plain terms, markets are still pricing inflation close to the low-2% range over time, even as near-term uncertainty about growth and policy lingers.
Equities: rotation tempers headline weakness
Major index ETFs underscored the day’s rotation narrative. SPY ended near flat, up about 0.1% versus its prior close. QQQ fell approximately 0.3%, extending a week in which several articles chronicled Big Tech leadership fatigue, valuation concerns, and even technical support breaks (MarketWatch). DIA gained roughly 0.1%, and small caps led: IWM climbed about 0.5%. That mix aligns with headlines emphasizing that tech stocks have been leading markets lower amid worries over elevated valuations and rising AI capex (MarketWatch), while investors selectively favored less-crowded corners of the market.
Sector performance was equally telling among the funds provided. Financials (XLF) rose about 0.7%, aided by steeper long-end yields and relatively healthy credit-market functioning discussed in several items (MarketWatch). Energy (XLE) outperformed, up around 1.4%, in tandem with higher oil prices (USO). Health Care (XLV) posted a modest gain (~0.1%), while Technology (XLK) fell approximately 0.3%. The dispersion mirrors the week’s media narrative: strong tech earnings alone haven’t quelled valuation worries (MarketWatch), and Microsoft’s extended losing streak alongside broader Big Tech pullbacks reflect investor rotation and scrutiny of AI spending ramps (MarketWatch). Technical voices cautioned that prior support levels in the S&P 500 have cracked and that volatility metrics deserve attention (MarketWatch), while others noted that the bond market’s appetite for recent Big Tech bond deals suggested the “AI bubble” may not be on the brink (MarketWatch). The result is a market that is de-risking at the margin in megacap tech while not abandoning equities wholesale.
Bonds: curve nuance and ETF tells
Treasury ETFs pointed to a subtle curve dynamic rather than a one-way move. The 1–3 year SHY inched up (~0.05%), the 7–10 year IEF also edged higher (~0.04%), but the long-duration TLT slipped (~0.2%). With the 10-year yield sitting at 4.17% and the 30-year at 4.74% in the latest snapshot, the small downtick in TLT suggests mild steepening pressure at the long end, consistent with the week’s theme of uncertainty about long-run growth and fiscal considerations. Press coverage of “wide Treasury-market swings” (MarketWatch) captures investor indecision as they weigh softening sentiment, mixed labor signals, and the economic hit from the shutdown against still-anchored medium-term inflation expectations.
Commodities: gold and silver bid; oil firms; gas slips
Gold (GLD) advanced roughly 0.6% and silver (SLV) gained about 0.8%, a move directionally in line with Bloomberg’s note that gold steadied as traders reassessed the path of U.S. rates. The combination of a softer dollar (see EUR/USD below), macro policy uncertainty and long-end rate volatility likely supported precious metals. Broad commodities (DBC) were modestly higher (~0.2%), driven in part by oil: USO rose about 0.6%. One report noted an unusual development in physical oil flows, with a large Indian refiner offering West Asian cargoes for sale (Bloomberg), underscoring the fluidity of supply/demand dynamics that can ripple through crude benchmarks. Natural gas (UNG) diverged, falling about 1.7%.
FX and crypto: euro firms; bitcoin rebounds
EUR/USD strengthened intraday, trading between 1.1516 and 1.1586 and closing above 1.156, up versus its open. A softer dollar tends to be commodity-supportive and can ease some financial conditions, though the magnitude today was modest. In digital assets, bitcoin (BTCUSD) rebounded above 100,000 by the close and traded up from its session open, with an intraday range spanning roughly 99,170 to 103,897. Ether (ETHUSD) also finished above its open. The news flow remains mixed: several articles flagged bitcoin slipping into bear-market territory earlier in the session or week and questioned the likelihood of a year-end return to records (MarketWatch), while others argued that after deleveraging, bitcoin may have “significant upside” relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis (MarketWatch). Another piece highlighted the close correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq and suggested watching crypto as a tell for Big Tech direction (MarketWatch). Today’s tape—crypto strength alongside tech underperformance—suggests the correlation is not one-to-one at high frequency, even if broader risk cycles remain intertwined.
Company and theme highlights from the news flow
- Policy and growth: The shutdown’s economic impact intensified, with the FAA curbing flights at 40 major airports by 10% (CNBC) and commentary warning the closure is starting to “bite” (MarketWatch). Consumer sentiment was reported near record lows on shutdown anxiety (MarketWatch), while labor signals were mixed: a surge in reported corporate job cuts (CNBC) contrasted with calmer interpretations of jobless claims data (MarketWatch).
- Tech and AI: Multiple pieces chronicled a tough week for Big Tech, noting valuation pressure, technical damage, and concerns around heavy AI investment (MarketWatch). Yet the corporate credit market’s strong demand for recent Big Tech bond deals was cited as evidence against an imminent AI unwind (MarketWatch). On the semiconductor front, reports highlighted a premarket rally in Marvell on M&A chatter (MarketWatch) and detailed updates from Qualcomm, including a sizable tax charge that weighed on the stock despite upbeat fundamentals ex-charge (MarketWatch).
- Consumer and travel: Despite FAA flight reductions, airlines were said to be having a surprisingly good week (MarketWatch), and several travel-related firms echoed steady demand—Expedia cited an improved demand backdrop (MarketWatch), and Airbnb guided to resilient sales albeit with expected profit impacts from new initiatives and regulatory battles (MarketWatch).
- Platforms and payments: DoorDash logged its steepest drop ever amid spending concerns (MarketWatch; CNBC). Block posted results ahead of expectations, though some nitpicks weighed on the stock (MarketWatch). Robinhood reported a sharp revenue increase, citing traction in newer businesses including prediction markets (MarketWatch).
- Media and telecom: Comcast was reported exploring aggressive M&A, including talks for assets at ITV and potentially an approach to Warner Bros. Discovery (MarketWatch), while Warner Bros. Discovery’s TV drag sparked renewed debate over strategic alternatives (MarketWatch).
- Housing: Articles questioned whether home prices are overinflated, with sales depressed and investors ramping up purchases as would-be owner-occupiers retreat (MarketWatch). A real-estate platform CEO also emphasized an AI push aimed at achieving profitability (MarketWatch).
Taken together, the day’s news and price action describe a market searching for balance. Valuation-sensitive tech continues to digest a year of outsized gains and rising AI spend, while cyclicals and small caps find sponsorship on days when commodity strength, a softer dollar and steeper long-end yields come together. Gold’s bid and bond-market chop reflect the policy and growth uncertainty cited across headlines.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Policy resolution: The shutdown’s duration and scope remain a primary macro swing factor. FAA-related flight reductions and incremental disruptions risk compounding consumer and corporate caution the longer the closure persists (CNBC; MarketWatch).
- Labor and sentiment: Watch how mixed labor signals resolve—whether elevated layoff announcements seep into weekly claims and hiring, and whether depressed sentiment starts to dent spending in a more visible way (CNBC; MarketWatch).
- Rates path: With the curve modestly upward from 2s to 10s and long-end volatility elevated, the interplay among growth expectations, fiscal developments and inflation data will steer duration. Market-based inflation expectations near the low-2%s give policymakers room, but the long end remains sensitive to growth and supply dynamics.
- Tech breadth and valuations: Technical commentary warned of support breaks; AI-spend scrutiny persists. Whether leadership broadens beyond mega-cap tech will be pivotal.
- Credit signals: Coverage noted both anxiety about “cockroaches” in credit and reassurance from robust demand for recent Big Tech bond deals. Continued primary market reception will be a key tell.
- Crypto as a risk proxy: Several pieces suggested watching bitcoin as a barometer for risk appetite in tech. Today’s divergence cautions against overreliance on the link, but it remains a relevant cross-check.
Near-term risks
- Prolonged government shutdown: wider operational disruptions (e.g., air travel), weaker sentiment, and a potential drag on Q4 activity.
- Labor deterioration: rising layoff announcements could translate into claims and slower hiring.
- Valuation compression in megacap tech: further multiple normalization if AI spending envelopes widen or if growth expectations moderate.
- Long-end rate volatility: renewed steepening could pressure duration-sensitive assets and equity multiples.
- Credit-market opacity: adverse headlines or a liquidity shock could challenge the “learn to live with the cockroaches” narrative.
- Housing fragility: elevated prices amid weak sales and investor-led demand could amplify downside risks if financing conditions tighten.
- Policy changes in health care pricing: GLP-1 drug pricing arrangements and broader regulatory shifts could alter sector earnings trajectories.
Closing take
With SPY flat, QQQ lower and IWM higher, today’s tape reaffirmed a market rotating rather than capitulating. The combination of anchored medium-term inflation expectations, a softer dollar, firmer commodities and mixed but not catastrophic labor signals lends itself to ongoing cross-asset push-pull. Until the shutdown is resolved and the earnings calendar delivers clearer guidance on AI investment and margin durability, expect days like this—where sector selection and factor exposure matter as much as the index level—to remain the rule rather than the exception.
Markets closed a choppy week with a mixed, rotation-driven session that featured continued pressure on mega-cap technology and relative strength in small caps, financials and energy. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) finished fractionally higher, the Dow proxy (DIA) was modestly positive, while the Nasdaq 100 tracker (QQQ) underperformed. Under the surface, sector leadership reflected shifting macro currents—firmer commodity prices and a softer dollar aided energy and precious metals, while bond ETFs sent a nuanced signal with slight gains at the front and belly of the curve but a dip in long duration.
Macro backdrop: policy, growth and inflation expectations
The policy environment remained a key overhang. Reports highlighted that the record government shutdown is “starting to bite the economy,” with the Senate struggling to forge a deal and the FAA set to reduce flight capacity at 40 major airports by 10% (MarketWatch; CNBC). Consumer sentiment was described as falling toward near-record lows as shutdown anxiety persists (MarketWatch). On the labor front, signals were mixed: Challenger reported October job cuts at a 22-year high (CNBC), yet state-level jobless claims analysis suggested conditions aren’t as bleak as headlines imply (MarketWatch), while other commentary characterized the job market as cooling but not collapsing (CNBC). Those crosscurrents have contributed to wide swings in Treasurys as investors debate the trajectory for growth (MarketWatch).
Against that backdrop, the Treasury yield snapshot shows a modestly upward-sloping curve from the 2-year to the 10-year: 2-year at 3.63%, 5-year at 3.76%, 10-year at 4.17%, and 30-year at 4.74% (data as of 11/05). Inflation readings (September CPI index 324.368 and core CPI 330.542) and expectations remain contained in the medium term: market-based 5-year and 10-year breakevens at roughly 2.36% and 2.31%, with a 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A one-year model estimate around 2.74% sits above those medium-term anchors. In plain terms, markets are still pricing inflation close to the low-2% range over time, even as near-term uncertainty about growth and policy lingers.
Equities: rotation tempers headline weakness
Major index ETFs underscored the day’s rotation narrative. SPY ended near flat, up about 0.1% versus its prior close. QQQ fell approximately 0.3%, extending a week in which several articles chronicled Big Tech leadership fatigue, valuation concerns, and even technical support breaks (MarketWatch). DIA gained roughly 0.1%, and small caps led: IWM climbed about 0.5%. That mix aligns with headlines emphasizing that tech stocks have been leading markets lower amid worries over elevated valuations and rising AI capex (MarketWatch), while investors selectively favored less-crowded corners of the market.
Sector performance was equally telling among the funds provided. Financials (XLF) rose about 0.7%, aided by steeper long-end yields and relatively healthy credit-market functioning discussed in several items (MarketWatch). Energy (XLE) outperformed, up around 1.4%, in tandem with higher oil prices (USO). Health Care (XLV) posted a modest gain (~0.1%), while Technology (XLK) fell approximately 0.3%. The dispersion mirrors the week’s media narrative: strong tech earnings alone haven’t quelled valuation worries (MarketWatch), and Microsoft’s extended losing streak alongside broader Big Tech pullbacks reflect investor rotation and scrutiny of AI spending ramps (MarketWatch). Technical voices cautioned that prior support levels in the S&P 500 have cracked and that volatility metrics deserve attention (MarketWatch), while others noted that the bond market’s appetite for recent Big Tech bond deals suggested the “AI bubble” may not be on the brink (MarketWatch). The result is a market that is de-risking at the margin in megacap tech while not abandoning equities wholesale.
Bonds: curve nuance and ETF tells
Treasury ETFs pointed to a subtle curve dynamic rather than a one-way move. The 1–3 year SHY inched up (~0.05%), the 7–10 year IEF also edged higher (~0.04%), but the long-duration TLT slipped (~0.2%). With the 10-year yield sitting at 4.17% and the 30-year at 4.74% in the latest snapshot, the small downtick in TLT suggests mild steepening pressure at the long end, consistent with the week’s theme of uncertainty about long-run growth and fiscal considerations. Press coverage of “wide Treasury-market swings” (MarketWatch) captures investor indecision as they weigh softening sentiment, mixed labor signals, and the economic hit from the shutdown against still-anchored medium-term inflation expectations.
Commodities: gold and silver bid; oil firms; gas slips
Gold (GLD) advanced roughly 0.6% and silver (SLV) gained about 0.8%, a move directionally in line with Bloomberg’s note that gold steadied as traders reassessed the path of U.S. rates. The combination of a softer dollar (see EUR/USD below), macro policy uncertainty and long-end rate volatility likely supported precious metals. Broad commodities (DBC) were modestly higher (~0.2%), driven in part by oil: USO rose about 0.6%. One report noted an unusual development in physical oil flows, with a large Indian refiner offering West Asian cargoes for sale (Bloomberg), underscoring the fluidity of supply/demand dynamics that can ripple through crude benchmarks. Natural gas (UNG) diverged, falling about 1.7%.
FX and crypto: euro firms; bitcoin rebounds
EUR/USD strengthened intraday, trading between 1.1516 and 1.1586 and closing above 1.156, up versus its open. A softer dollar tends to be commodity-supportive and can ease some financial conditions, though the magnitude today was modest. In digital assets, bitcoin (BTCUSD) rebounded above 100,000 by the close and traded up from its session open, with an intraday range spanning roughly 99,170 to 103,897. Ether (ETHUSD) also finished above its open. The news flow remains mixed: several articles flagged bitcoin slipping into bear-market territory earlier in the session or week and questioned the likelihood of a year-end return to records (MarketWatch), while others argued that after deleveraging, bitcoin may have “significant upside” relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis (MarketWatch). Another piece highlighted the close correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq and suggested watching crypto as a tell for Big Tech direction (MarketWatch). Today’s tape—crypto strength alongside tech underperformance—suggests the correlation is not one-to-one at high frequency, even if broader risk cycles remain intertwined.
Company and theme highlights from the news flow
- Policy and growth: The shutdown’s economic impact intensified, with the FAA curbing flights at 40 major airports by 10% (CNBC) and commentary warning the closure is starting to “bite” (MarketWatch). Consumer sentiment was reported near record lows on shutdown anxiety (MarketWatch), while labor signals were mixed: a surge in reported corporate job cuts (CNBC) contrasted with calmer interpretations of jobless claims data (MarketWatch).
- Tech and AI: Multiple pieces chronicled a tough week for Big Tech, noting valuation pressure, technical damage, and concerns around heavy AI investment (MarketWatch). Yet the corporate credit market’s strong demand for recent Big Tech bond deals was cited as evidence against an imminent AI unwind (MarketWatch). On the semiconductor front, reports highlighted a premarket rally in Marvell on M&A chatter (MarketWatch) and detailed updates from Qualcomm, including a sizable tax charge that weighed on the stock despite upbeat fundamentals ex-charge (MarketWatch).
- Consumer and travel: Despite FAA flight reductions, airlines were said to be having a surprisingly good week (MarketWatch), and several travel-related firms echoed steady demand—Expedia cited an improved demand backdrop (MarketWatch), and Airbnb guided to resilient sales albeit with expected profit impacts from new initiatives and regulatory battles (MarketWatch).
- Platforms and payments: DoorDash logged its steepest drop ever amid spending concerns (MarketWatch; CNBC). Block posted results ahead of expectations, though some nitpicks weighed on the stock (MarketWatch). Robinhood reported a sharp revenue increase, citing traction in newer businesses including prediction markets (MarketWatch).
- Media and telecom: Comcast was reported exploring aggressive M&A, including talks for assets at ITV and potentially an approach to Warner Bros. Discovery (MarketWatch), while Warner Bros. Discovery’s TV drag sparked renewed debate over strategic alternatives (MarketWatch).
- Housing: Articles questioned whether home prices are overinflated, with sales depressed and investors ramping up purchases as would-be owner-occupiers retreat (MarketWatch). A real-estate platform CEO also emphasized an AI push aimed at achieving profitability (MarketWatch).
Taken together, the day’s news and price action describe a market searching for balance. Valuation-sensitive tech continues to digest a year of outsized gains and rising AI spend, while cyclicals and small caps find sponsorship on days when commodity strength, a softer dollar and steeper long-end yields come together. Gold’s bid and bond-market chop reflect the policy and growth uncertainty cited across headlines.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Policy resolution: The shutdown’s duration and scope remain a primary macro swing factor. FAA-related flight reductions and incremental disruptions risk compounding consumer and corporate caution the longer the closure persists (CNBC; MarketWatch).
- Labor and sentiment: Watch how mixed labor signals resolve—whether elevated layoff announcements seep into weekly claims and hiring, and whether depressed sentiment starts to dent spending in a more visible way (CNBC; MarketWatch).
- Rates path: With the curve modestly upward from 2s to 10s and long-end volatility elevated, the interplay among growth expectations, fiscal developments and inflation data will steer duration. Market-based inflation expectations near the low-2%s give policymakers room, but the long end remains sensitive to growth and supply dynamics.
- Tech breadth and valuations: Technical commentary warned of support breaks; AI-spend scrutiny persists. Whether leadership broadens beyond mega-cap tech will be pivotal.
- Credit signals: Coverage noted both anxiety about “cockroaches” in credit and reassurance from robust demand for recent Big Tech bond deals. Continued primary market reception will be a key tell.
- Crypto as a risk proxy: Several pieces suggested watching bitcoin as a barometer for risk appetite in tech. Today’s divergence cautions against overreliance on the link, but it remains a relevant cross-check.
Near-term risks
- Prolonged government shutdown: wider operational disruptions (e.g., air travel), weaker sentiment, and a potential drag on Q4 activity.
- Labor deterioration: rising layoff announcements could translate into claims and slower hiring.
- Valuation compression in megacap tech: further multiple normalization if AI spending envelopes widen or if growth expectations moderate.
- Long-end rate volatility: renewed steepening could pressure duration-sensitive assets and equity multiples.
- Credit-market opacity: adverse headlines or a liquidity shock could challenge the “learn to live with the cockroaches” narrative.
- Housing fragility: elevated prices amid weak sales and investor-led demand could amplify downside risks if financing conditions tighten.
- Policy changes in health care pricing: GLP-1 drug pricing arrangements and broader regulatory shifts could alter sector earnings trajectories.
Closing take
With SPY flat, QQQ lower and IWM higher, today’s tape reaffirmed a market rotating rather than capitulating. The combination of anchored medium-term inflation expectations, a softer dollar, firmer commodities and mixed but not catastrophic labor signals lends itself to ongoing cross-asset push-pull. Until the shutdown is resolved and the earnings calendar delivers clearer guidance on AI investment and margin durability, expect days like this—where sector selection and factor exposure matter as much as the index level—to remain the rule rather than the exception.