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MU

Target Hit - Profit/Loss: 1.63%
Micron Technology, Inc.
Recommendation Date: 12/25/2025 Update: 12/26/2025 07:32 AM (3 updates)
Trade Plan
Risk Score
37
Entry $286.68-$289.00
Exit $305.00-$305.00
Stop Loss $284.00
Horizon 7d
Original Confidence 92%
Updated Confidence 92%
Score 0.960
Evidence
Price at Pick:$286.68
Prior Close:$276.27
MACD Value:12.087325
MACD Signal:8.388289
MACD Histogram:3.699036
Trend:Bullish Momentum
Support Est:$250.00
Resistance Est:$289.30
Current Quote
Price
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Change
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Open
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Volume
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Rationale
HBM factory go brrrr. Micron just printed a 229% YTD face-melter because every AI GPU from Jensen and Lisa needs their HBM3E and the Street is finally reading the memo: 132% revenue growth, 480% earnings growth, and all of 2026 HBM4E already spoken for. That’s not vibes, that’s sold-out inventory. Chart is a straight ski slope the *wrong* way for shorts: new all-time/52-week highs at 289.30, price at 286.68 riding miles above the 9-day EMA (262.67) and 21-day EMA (249.99). MACD is a rocket (12.09 vs 8.39 signal) with a fat positive histogram, RSI at 67.8 says strong but not full nosebleed. Shorts are adding (25.15M shares short, days_to_cover ~1.21) but short-volume ratio is slipping, meaning bears are getting steamrolled, not reloading. You’re not catching a bottom here, you’re jumping on a freight train with AI printed all over the side. Tight stop under the breakout, aim for low 300s and let the AI mania squeeze a little more juice out of this memory pig.
Risk Analysis
Entry/exit ranges and stop are internally consistent and feasible vs current price. ATR (16.25) implies ~5.7% daily movement; stop at 272 is ~-5.1% (≈0.9 ATR) which is relatively tight for a 7-day swing. Upside targets (305-312) are ~6.4–8.7% above current and are roughly 1.1–1.5 ATR — plausible but subject to short-term volatility. No upcoming earnings in the provided structured data. Overall setup is tradeable but has moderate volatility and a stop placed within ~1 ATR.
Updates
12/26/2025 07:32 AM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 312 Exit Min: 305 Entry Max: 289 Entry Min: 286.68 Stop Loss: 284 Horizon Days: 7
extended_above_emas ai_thematic_crowding gap_and_run_after_200pct_ytd
Initial upside target zone has effectively been reached. Entry was filled at 286.68 and last is 291.34, putting the trade up ~1.6% overnight with strong continuation and no technical damage. However, the explicit plan calls for taking profits once price trades at or above 305 (exit_min) within a 7-day horizon, and given we are still below that, the strict target rule is not yet met. Momentum (MACD bullish, RSI ~68, price extended well above short EMAs/SMAs) plus positive news and rising social interest all support staying in the trade for the original low-300s target, but risk-reward is compressing due to the parabolic extension and crowded AI sentiment. I am keeping the position ACTIVE, slightly tightening the stop to lock in more of the move while leaving upside open toward 305–312. No thesis invalidation; just risk management in a very extended winner.
Confidence 92%
12/26/2025 06:32 AM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 312 Exit Min: 305 Stop Loss: 282 Horizon Days: 7
gap_up_after_entry_increases_reversal_risk elevated_rsi_but_not_extreme short_interest_rising_but_not_squeeze_setup early_hours_liquidity_can_exaggerate_moves
Position remains active and is working well. Price has moved favorably from the 286.68 fill to ~291.78, maintaining strong bullish momentum with MACD and RSI still constructive and price well above key EMAs/SMAs. No stop-loss (278) breach and no target (305–312) reached, and the 7-day horizon is still intact (day 2 of 7). Positive news flow and rising social interest support the original AI/HBM thesis. Given the quick run toward the lower 300s, risk management focus should now be on protecting gains if a sharp reversal occurs while still allowing room for continuation into the 300–310 zone.
Confidence 89%
12/26/2025 05:32 AM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 312 Exit Min: 305 Entry Max: 289 Entry Min: 286.68 Stop Loss: 278 Horizon Days: 7
gap_up_after_entry elevated_rsi_not_extreme trend_acceleration short_interest_rising_but_not_extreme intraday_volatility_risk tightened_stop_to_protect_profits
Trade remains valid and is working: entry was filled at 286.68 and price is now 293.60, moving cleanly toward the 305–312 target band with strong bullish momentum (MACD positive, RSI elevated but not extreme) and supportive AI/hypergrowth news flow. No stop, target, or time-based exit has been triggered (horizon runs to 2026-01-01). Given the fast move post-entry and the stock sitting near recent highs, risk should be tightened to lock in some downside protection while still allowing room for continuation into the low 300s. Social and news sentiment remain positive and short data do not suggest imminent squeeze risk or breakdown, so the long thesis is intact.
Confidence 86%
Active Tracking
12/26/2025 07:32 AM
Active
$291.34 (1.22%)
12/26/2025 07:31 AM
Active
$291.13 (1.14%)
12/26/2025 07:30 AM
Active
$291.13 (1.14%)
12/26/2025 07:29 AM
Active
$291.13 (1.14%)
12/26/2025 07:28 AM
Active
$290.99 (1.09%)
12/26/2025 07:27 AM
Active
$291.00 (1.10%)
12/26/2025 07:26 AM
Active
$291.10 (1.13%)
12/26/2025 07:25 AM
Active
$291.10 (1.13%)
12/26/2025 07:24 AM
Active
$290.73 (1.00%)
12/26/2025 07:23 AM
Active
$290.73 (1.00%)
12/26/2025 07:22 AM
Active
$290.73 (1.00%)
12/26/2025 07:21 AM
Active
$290.74 (1.01%)
12/26/2025 07:20 AM
Active
$291.00 (1.10%)
12/26/2025 07:19 AM
Active
$291.05 (1.12%)
12/26/2025 07:18 AM
Active
$291.05 (1.12%)
12/26/2025 07:17 AM
Active
$291.27 (1.19%)
12/26/2025 07:16 AM
Active
$291.38 (1.23%)
12/26/2025 07:15 AM
Active
$291.50 (1.27%)
12/26/2025 07:14 AM
Active
$291.60 (1.31%)
12/26/2025 07:13 AM
Active
$291.60 (1.31%)
12/25/2025 09:40 AM
Entered
$286.68 (-0.40%)
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