Plan: Long TLRY for an intraday move driven by U.S. marijuana rescheduling headlines. 1) Catalyst & news - Yahoo reports Trump is expected to sign an executive order to reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, with timing as soon as Monday (Trump expected to sign EO to reclassify marijuana as soon as Monday, CNBC via Yahoo, 2025-12-??, https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=3448ab43cd9ab00d5c6b74f7c8368d81e805a1a1a3021cf5652d6f4ad05842cd). - Seeking Alpha piece specifically frames Tilray as a high-risk bet amid possible reclassification (Tilray Brands: A Hold On This High-Risk Cannabis Bet Amid Possible Reclassification, https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=4bfba4eadfe634093bbd227b7d640361c323e730612882b7ef4bb0560581f0fa). This is a strong, sector-wide regulatory catalyst that can fuel speculative flows and sharp intraday ranges. 2) Price/volatility context - Last trade ~15.30 vs prior close 12.88 (about +18.8% on the session already), showing strong momentum and liquidity. - ATR(14) ≈ 1.47 on a ~15 stock (~9–10% of price), supportive of a 4–5% intraday swing target. 3) Technicals & momentum - Strong bullish setup: price is well above short-term averages (sma10 ≈ 9.65, ema9 ≈ 10.78, ema21 ≈ 10.22), confirming a breakout regime, not a minor bounce. - MACD line 0.043 vs signal -0.759, histogram +0.80, state = bullish_momentum, indicating momentum has flipped positive and is expanding. - RSI ~60.4: in bullish but not overbought territory, leaving room for further extension before exhaustion. - Short data: short interest days-to-cover ~2.4 with short-volume ratio ~56% and flagged as elevated. That combination with a regulatory catalyst raises odds of continued squeeze-y behavior intraday. 4) Reward/risk math - Proposed entry 14.90–15.20. Using the entry floor 14.90: • Bare-min target (exit_min 15.60) = (15.60 – 14.90) / 14.90 ≈ 4.7% upside. • Upper target (exit_max 16.00) = (16.00 – 14.90) / 14.90 ≈ 7.4% upside. - Stop at 13.90: downside from 14.90 is (14.90 – 13.90) / 14.90 ≈ 6.7%. - Reward:risk vs entry floor ≈ 4.7–7.4% upside vs 6.7% downside. On a pure R:R this is about 0.7–1.1:1, but the asymmetric catalyst and short positioning justify the trade if sized modestly. - Given ATR ~1.47, the 0.7–1.1 point profit zone is within a typical day’s range, making the 4–7% target realistic intraday. 5) Intraday plan & timing (pre-market context) - Horizon: 2–5 trading hours post-open. - Look to build position near the open on a controlled pullback or consolidation into 14.90–15.20 rather than chasing spikes. - If price rips straight above 16 without offering the entry zone, stand aside rather than forcing a chase. - Trail stop higher if price quickly tests 15.8–16.0 with strong tape; lock at least break-even once price holds above 15.7 on 5–15 min closes. Given the clear regulatory catalyst, strong short participation, and confirmed bullish momentum, a long bias with a realistic 4–7% intraday profit window is justified. Position sizing should account for TLRY’s high volatility and the relatively wide percentage stop.