Plan: Long TLRY for an intraday momentum continuation on cannabis rescheduling headlines and elevated short interest. 1) Upside math (meets ≥4–5% target) - Planned entry floor: 14.05. - Conservative exit floor: 14.75. - % Upside = (14.75 − 14.05) / 14.05 ≈ 0.70 / 14.05 ≈ 4.98%. - Exit ceiling 15.10 gives ~7.5% upside from 14.05 if momentum overshoots. This supports a realistic 5–7% intraday profit window. 2) Technical setup - Last price 14.10, just above prior close 13.94, with intraday high 14.70 – strong recent range. - 10D SMA ≈ 9.06, 20D SMA ≈ 9.10, 50D SMA ≈ 12.24. Price is meaningfully above all key averages, indicating an established short-term uptrend and a medium-term trend reversal above the 50D. - 9D EMA 10.25 and 21D EMA 9.96 are far below price, confirming strong upside extension. This favors momentum continuation but also implies volatility and potential sharp pullbacks. - MACD line -0.206 vs signal -0.959 with histogram +0.754 and state flagged as bullish_momentum: MACD is crossing up from negative toward zero, a typical early-to-mid uptrend phase. - RSI ~65.7: bullish but not yet classic overbought (>70), suggesting room for additional upside before momentum exhausts. - ATR(14) ≈ 1.45 on a ~14 stock (~10% of price) – very high intraday volatility, consistent with 4–8% swings in a day. 3) Catalyst & news - Cannabis policy is the primary driver. A Yahoo Finance report notes Trump is expected to sign an EO to reclassify marijuana to Schedule III as soon as Monday, which has already caused cannabis stocks to jump: - "Trump expected to sign EO to reclassify marijuana as soon as Monday, CNBC says" (Yahoo Finance, id 3448ab4…). - Seeking Alpha coverage specifically on Tilray highlights the Class III reclassification angle as a key upside driver, framing TLRY as a high-risk, policy-sensitive play: - "Tilray Brands: A Hold On This High-Risk Cannabis Bet Amid Possible Reclassification" (Seeking Alpha, id 4bfba4e…). - Another article shows TLRY was among the most active movers recently, confirming strong trading interest: - "Stocks to Watch Friday Recap: Broadcom, Lululemon, Tilray Brands" (Yahoo Finance, id b2e2c7f…). This is a clear, ongoing regulatory narrative that can continue to fuel intraday retail and momentum flows. 4) Positioning, sentiment, and short dynamics - 1D move: +27.54%; 5D: +72.31%; 1M: +29.07%; 6M: +262.83%. This is a textbook high-momentum regime, with recent explosive upside tied to the policy theme. - Social mentions rank jumped from 65 to 13, with trend up, signaling growing retail focus exactly when volatility and volume are high. - Short interest ~110.3M shares vs avg daily volume ~45.7M implies ~2.42 days to cover and rising short interest (+11.8% vs prior), with short-volume ratio ~55.6% and flagged as elevated. Squeeze score 60/100. This combination supports continued intraday squeezes if buyers push early. 5) Liquidity & risk - Market cap ~1.64B, average 20D volume ~14.3M, but 2-week average ~22.4M and recent day volume ~5.96M already mid-session, so full-day trade likely highly liquid. - High beta (~1.30) and ATR make it appropriate for intraday momentum but require tight risk controls. 6) Trade structure - Entry: 14.05–14.25, ideally on early consolidation above 14 after first volatility spike. This slightly above last price allows avoiding chasing an immediate opening spike beyond risk parameters. - Stop: 13.40 (≈4.6% below 14.05). This is just under the prior session low of 13.71, allowing normal noise while cutting risk if yesterday’s breakout fails and price loses the 13.7–13.8 zone. - Intraday targets: - First target/exit floor 14.75 (~5% from 14.05) near the prior intraday high area, expecting resistance and potential profit-taking there. - Stretch target 15.10 (~7.5% from 14.05) if policy optimism and short-covering extend the move. - Time horizon: 2–5 hours after open; this is a same-day trade only, with exit by close regardless of price. Given strong regulatory catalyst, elevated short/retail positioning, bullish technicals, and ample volatility, the setup reasonably supports ≥5% intraday upside with defined ~4–5% downside risk, justifying a confidence level in the high-70s for a day-trade long.

Recommendation is internally consistent and feasible vs the provided current price (last=13.91). Key risk drivers: very high intraday volatility (ATR ~1.404, ~10% of price), elevated short interest (~2.4 days to cover) that can magnify intraday moves, and a relatively tight stop (<1 ATR) which increases chance of being stopped out by normal intraday noise. Liquidity appears adequate for intraday sizing. Adjusted confidence lowered from the submission (78) to 65 to reflect elevated volatility and short-interest–driven event risk despite supportive catalyst.