AVGO (Broadcom Inc. Common Stock Recommendation

AVGO

Expired - Profit/Loss: -1.17%

Broadcom Inc. Common Stock

Recommendation Date: 12/16/2025 Update: 12/16/2025 16:32 PM (7 updates)

Trade Plan

$343.00-$348.00

$348.00-$348.00

$334.00

0.860

Evidence

Price at Pick:$345.71

Prior Close:$339.81

MACD Value:5.641359

MACD Signal:9.632552

MACD Histogram:-3.991192

Trend:Bearish Momentum

Support Est:$335.06

Resistance Est:$376.69

Current Quote

Price

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Change

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Open

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Volume

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Rationale

Plan: YOLO the chip kang’s sadness bounce. The suits nuked AVGO ~16% after it printed fat AI numbers, raised the dividend, and still got slapped because margins weren’t galaxy-brain enough. Now you’ve got articles literally calling it an "unwarranted selloff" and comparing it favorably to Celestica while hyperscaler AI spend is still cranking. We’re sitting around $346, miles under the short-term MAs, RSI chilling below 40, ATR over $18. That’s a coiled spring. Social buzz is heating up, shorts already did their damage, and now every dip-buyer with a chart is eyeing the same reversal. Game plan: scoop calls or commons around $343–$348, ride the pain-train reversal to $359–$366, slap a tight-ish stop near $334 so you don’t get margin-called into oblivion. Risk ≈ -2.5%, potential payday ≈ +5% in a single session if AI panic cools off. No diamond hands here – in, grab 4–6%, and out before close. If it cracks the stop, admit the market hates you today and walk away.

Pre-market plan is to trade AVGO long for an intraday reflex-bounce after a sharp multi-day selloff tied to AI-margin fears. 1) Setup & upside math - Reference price ~345.71 (real-time quote). I’m setting an entry band at $343–$348 to allow for minor early volatility around that level. - Target exit: $359–$366. From the entry floor of $343, the minimum upside to $359 is (359 − 343) / 343 ≈ 4.7%. To the midpoint of the target range (~$362.5) is ≈ 5.7%. - Stop: $334, which is about 2.6% below the $343 entry floor, giving a favorable reward/risk profile (~1.8–2.1:1 depending on precise fill/exit). - ATR(14) is 18.32, so a 4–6% intraday swing (≈$14–$21) is well within the stock’s recent daily range. 2) Catalyst and sentiment - AVGO is coming off a 16%+ drawdown after earnings and guidance despite strong fundamentals and a dividend hike, per Yahoo: "Broadcom (AVGO) Is Down 16.4% After AI Margins Eclipse Strong Earnings And Dividend Hike – What’s Changed" (https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=dac610e4299b9075cf93dd17f583a885aae0f42d8a9dc3754e04ffce513d4283). - Another piece characterizes the selloff as overdone: "Broadcom Vs Celestica: Unwarranted Selloff Makes Both Strong Buys" (https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=8eb7da2f222e7518049653264e29a2abd7976b4704f8869f7a902ac440cc340e), arguing that AI networking demand and capex plans remain intact. This kind of "unwarranted selloff" framing often fuels dip-buying and intraday mean reversion. - Social attention is high (ApeWisdom rank 5, mentions trend up), which can amplify any bounce as retail traders pile into a perceived overreaction. 3) Technicals & positioning - Price (~346) is well below the 10-day SMA (~386) and 9-day EMA (~379), reflecting a deep short-term dislocation that often retraces part of the move once panic selling cools. - RSI at ~38.5 is just below neutral after a large drawdown, suggesting the stock has worked off some overbought conditions without yet fully entering a momentum breakdown zone; this is classic reflex-bounce territory if selling pressure abates. - MACD histogram is negative with a bearish momentum label, confirming recent downside, but that’s precisely the setup for a contrarian intraday bounce when paired with positive fundamental news and large ATR. - Short-interest days-to-cover is modest (~2.14), and short-volume ratio has dropped sharply vs. 5-day average (from ~44.9% to ~30.7%), which indicates that the heaviest shorting pressure may be easing. Reduced fresh shorting plus value/dip buyers can allow a clean upside push. 4) Liquidity & intraday timing - AVGO is mega-cap with ~33M average daily volume, easily supporting intraday entries and exits within a few cents of the tape. - ATR and recent volatility support a 4–6% intraday move; the plan is to hold 2–5 hours post-open, looking for a morning reversal and continuation into early/mid afternoon if buyers step in. 5) Risk considerations - The trade is counter-trend relative to the recent 5-day move (-15.3%), so discipline is critical: if price breaks and holds below ~$334, it implies continuation of the selloff rather than a bounce, and the trade thesis is invalidated. - Broader market tone in AI/semis (referenced in Yahoo’s AI bubble debate piece, https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=38dba521783134b60cadaf251d342bb5326a5667afa87dc713f45da2d1767e9b) could either turbocharge or cap the bounce; this is an intraday tactical play, not a multi-day swing. Given the strong fundamental backdrop, news-driven overreaction framing, high liquidity, large ATR, and a clearly defined 4–6% upside window vs. ~2.6% downside, I assign ~78% confidence to hitting the lower end of the target range intraday if the open doesn’t gap sharply lower. Time horizon: 2–5 hours intraday, no overnight hold.

Risk Analysis

Ranges and math are internally consistent and the entry band contains the current price. Trade is a high-liquidity intraday contrarian bounce post-earnings with elevated ATR. Primary risks are elevated intraday volatility (ATR ~17.5, stop < 1 ATR) and recent earnings-driven drawdown that may keep price action choppy. Overall a plausible intraday setup if executed with tight sizing and adherence to the stop.

Updates

12/16/2025 16:32 PM

Intraday-only plan with no overnight hold; horizon reached Price failed to reach minimum exit target; bounce weaker than expected Trend and momentum remain bearish (price well below short-term MAs, negative MACD histogram) Carrying beyond plan would change this from tactical intraday to unintended swing risk

Trade was an intraday reflex-bounce setup with a stated 2–5 hour holding window and a 1-day max horizon. Now in after-hours on 2025-12-16, the position has not hit the stop ($334) or the minimum target ($348); price is ~$340.70, below entry and still under all short-term moving averages with bearish MACD. Since the plan explicitly called for no overnight hold and the 1-day horizon is effectively over, the trade should be closed as EXPIRED rather than carried. Intraday thesis (fast bounce toward $359–$366) did not materialize; risk/reward no longer favors staying in beyond the planned window.

Confidence 0%

12/16/2025 15:32 PM

Hold

Exit Max: 358 Exit Min: 348 Stop Loss: 334 Horizon Days: 1

PRICE_BELOW_ENTRY COUNTER_TREND_SETUP BEARISH_MOMENTUM_PERSISTS INTRADAY_ONLY_NO_OVERNIGHT

Position remains active. Trade was filled at 344.74 and price is now ~342.40, modestly under water but well above the 334 stop and still within the original intraday plan. The reflex-bounce thesis is intact: price is deeply below short-term MAs, RSI has firmed to ~40 (off oversold but not extended), MACD remains in bearish momentum but that is consistent with a counter-trend bounce setup, and social attention continues to rise. No clear invalidation beyond normal intraday noise; however, the lack of a strong bounce so far warrants slightly higher vigilance into the afternoon. Maintain original stop at 334 and the lower exit target at 348 as the first scale-out/exit reference. If price reclaims 348–352 with strength, you can reassess holding for a push toward the high end of the original 359–366 swing, but given the remaining intraday window, prioritize taking profits near/above 348 if achieved today. Do not hold overnight; thesis is strictly intraday.

Confidence 65%

12/16/2025 14:32 PM

Hold

Exit Max: 358 Exit Min: 348 Stop Loss: 334 Horizon Days: 1

Price below entry but above stop; drawdown must be monitored closely. Bearish MACD and price still well below short-term MAs mean downtrend remains intact; bounce is tactical, not confirmed. Very high liquidity and volatility can accelerate moves in either direction into the close.

Trade is filled at 344.74 and remains comfortably between stop (334) and first target (348). Current price ~341.06 is a modest drawdown but not a technical breakdown: RSI remains just under neutral (~39), MACD still bearish but consistent with the original reflex-bounce thesis, and short-volume pressure has eased versus the 5-day average. Social buzz is rising, which can help an afternoon bounce. However, the stock has not shown a strong reversal yet, so realized probability of hitting higher targets intraday is lower than the pre-market 78%; I mark confidence at 60. With horizon strictly intraday/1 day, the priority is to respect the original stop and avoid widening risk. No explicit evidence that the thesis is invalidated yet; position can remain on with tight risk discipline and a willingness to take profits near the lower exit band (348+) if reached before close, even if the upper 350s are not tagged.

Confidence 60%

12/16/2025 13:32 PM

Tighten Stop

Exit Max: 358 Exit Min: 348 Stop Loss: 334 Horizon Days: 1

Price is moving against the position and is now uncomfortably close to the original stop, increasing the odds of a STOP_HIT if bearish momentum persists intraday. MACD histogram remains firmly negative with a bearish momentum label, indicating that selling pressure has not yet clearly abated. The original intraday bounce thesis is time-sensitive; if a reflex move does not materialize within the planned 2–5 hour window, consider exiting before the close even if the hard stop has not been hit to avoid overnight risk.

Trade is filled at 344.74 and currently trading around 338.52, down ~1.8% from fill and ~1.3% above the 334 stop. The intraday reflex-bounce thesis is under pressure but not yet invalidated: price is still above the hard stop, RSI remains in bounce territory (~38), MACD continues to show bearish momentum, and there is no new negative news flow. Given proximity to the stop and continued downside pressure, risk/reward is now less attractive than at entry, so confidence is reduced. However, the original plan allowed for intraday volatility within ATR and envisioned a 2–5 hour window, so mechanically exiting before the stop is hit would be premature if you’re adhering strictly to the plan. Maintain discipline: respect the 334 hard stop and avoid averaging down. If price accelerates toward 334 with heavy volume and no sign of stabilization (e.g., fast tape, persistent new lows), be prepared that the stop may trigger and the thesis will be considered failed for today.

Confidence 50%

12/16/2025 12:32 PM

Tighten Stop

Exit Max: 362 Exit Min: 352 Stop Loss: 334 Horizon Days: 1

Price below entry and trending down intraday Bearish MACD momentum persists after earnings selloff Counter-trend bounce attempt against a strong multi-day down move Stop is relatively tight; any acceleration lower could trigger a fast flush through 334 High volatility/ATR increases gap and whipsaw risk

Trade is filled long at 344.74 and price is now ~339.71, about 1.5% below entry but still well above the 334 stop and below the 355–362 target band. Intraday reflex-bounce thesis is dented but not broken: RSI remains just under neutral, MACD histogram still negative (bearish momentum), and price is deeply below short-term MAs, which keeps the potential for a mean-reversion bounce but also confirms ongoing downside pressure. Social/media backdrop and news tone remain constructive, but with the trade moving against you intraday, reward/risk is now less favorable than at entry. No explicit stop/target/horizon rules have been triggered yet, so the position should remain ACTIVE with tight risk discipline. I would not widen the stop here; if 334 breaks, the thesis is invalidated and the plan should be to exit. If price stages a bounce back toward 349–352 but stalls with weak momentum, consider discretionary partial profit-taking even before 355, but that is outside the original rules you set.

Confidence 55%

12/16/2025 10:33 AM

Tighten Stop

Exit Max: 362 Exit Min: 355 Stop Loss: 334 Horizon Days: 1

Price below entry and trending down intraday Bearish MACD histogram indicating continued downside momentum Still well below short-term MAs, bounce may not materialize within 1-day horizon Reward-to-risk compressed from current level vs original target band

Trade is filled at 344.74 and currently trading around 339.48, down ~1.5% from entry and still above the 334 stop. The reflex-bounce thesis is not broken yet, but price is leaning against you with bearish intraday momentum (negative MACD histogram, below short-term EMAs/SMA10) and no additional intraday positive catalyst beyond a generally constructive news piece. Social buzz and falling short-volume ratio still support the potential for a squeeze-y intraday bounce, but the window to realize the original 4–6% upside before close is narrowing. With the stop still intact and no hard invalidation signal, the position can remain active, but risk needs to be respected tightly on any further weakness. Consider taking partial profits or tightening risk if price retakes 348–352 and then stalls, as reclaiming the full 359–366 target band from current levels intraday is now less likely. No mechanical stop/target/horizon rule has been hit yet, so no forced close, but treat further downside toward 334 as a hard line with no widening of risk.

Confidence 70%

Active Tracking

12/16/2025 04:32 PM

Active

$340.70 (-1.39%)

12/16/2025 04:31 PM

Active

$340.61 (-1.42%)

12/16/2025 04:30 PM

Active

$340.65 (-1.40%)

12/16/2025 04:29 PM

Active

$340.75 (-1.38%)

12/16/2025 04:28 PM

Active

$340.61 (-1.42%)

12/16/2025 04:27 PM

Active

$340.75 (-1.38%)

12/16/2025 04:26 PM

Active

$340.60 (-1.42%)

12/16/2025 04:25 PM

Active

$340.58 (-1.43%)

12/16/2025 04:24 PM

Active

$340.42 (-1.47%)

12/16/2025 04:23 PM

Active

$340.41 (-1.47%)

12/16/2025 04:22 PM

Active

$340.51 (-1.44%)

12/16/2025 04:21 PM

Active

$340.47 (-1.46%)

12/16/2025 04:20 PM

Active

$340.52 (-1.44%)

12/16/2025 04:19 PM

Active

$340.60 (-1.42%)

12/16/2025 04:18 PM

Active

$340.59 (-1.42%)

12/16/2025 04:17 PM

Active

$341.30 (-1.22%)

12/16/2025 04:16 PM

Active

$341.30 (-1.22%)

12/16/2025 04:15 PM

Active

$340.50 (-1.45%)

12/16/2025 04:14 PM

Active

$340.44 (-1.47%)

12/16/2025 04:13 PM

Active

$340.40 (-1.48%)

12/16/2025 09:42 AM

Entered

$344.74 (-0.22%)