Chosen: TLRY. 1) Catalyst & news - Core driver is the federal reclassification headline: Trump expected to sign an executive order to move marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, per CNBC/Washington Post coverage summarized on Yahoo Finance: "Trump expected to sign EO to reclassify marijuana as soon as Monday, CNBC says" (2025-12-15). - That headline already caused cannabis stocks to "jump" Friday and TLRY to be included among "Stocks to Watch" into today. - Regulatory reclassification is a sector‑wide structural catalyst that can sustain multi‑day/speculative momentum, especially in cannabis where prior episodes have produced double‑digit intraday moves. 2) Price, volatility, and upside math - Current price: 11.5696 vs previous close 12.15 (roughly –4.8% from prior close). - TLRY traded 11.40–12.5899 last session, with ATR(14) ≈ 1.13 — ~9.7% of price, signaling large typical intraday ranges. - Proposed plan: • Entry range: 11.50–11.80 (around current bid/ask; small allowance for open slippage). • Exit (target) range: 12.10–12.40. • Stop-loss: 10.90. - Upside math from entry floor: • Minimum target vs 11.50 = (12.10 – 11.50) / 11.50 ≈ 5.2%. • Upper target vs 11.50 = (12.40 – 11.50) / 11.50 ≈ 7.8%. - Downside to stop from entry ceiling: • (11.50 – 10.90) / 11.50 ≈ 5.2% downside if you enter near the bottom. • If you chase to 11.80, risk to 10.90 is ≈ 7.6%, which is why discipline on not buying above 11.80 is important. - Given ATR ≈ 1.13 and Friday’s high of 12.5899, a 0.6–0.9 move up from the low‑11s is realistic intraday under continued headline flow. 3) Technicals & positioning - Trend indicators: • 10‑day SMA ≈ 8.13 and 20‑day SMA ≈ 8.91 are well below the current price (11.57), confirming a strong recent run. • 50‑day SMA ≈ 12.38 is slightly above current price, making today’s target in the 12.1–12.4 area a sensible test of the 50‑day region / prior high zone. • EMA(9) ≈ 8.93, EMA(21) ≈ 9.42, EMA(50) ≈ 10.80 — price is above all EMAs; short‑term trend remains up. - Momentum: • RSI ≈ 62.3 — bullish but not yet overbought; still room for momentum continuation. • MACD line (–0.85) above signal (–1.28) with positive histogram 0.43 and state flagged as "bullish_momentum" — confirms positive momentum crossover from depressed levels. - All of this suggests a strong, but not fully exhausted, upside move with room to retest Friday’s highs. 4) Sentiment, short interest, and squeeze potential - Social: TLRY is rank 21 on ApeWisdom with improving ranking (21 vs 29 prior), and the supplied data labels mention trends as "up" — confirming rising retail focus. - Short interest: • Short interest ≈ 110.3M shares vs float ≈ 115.1M — extraordinarily high. • Short‑volume ratio on 2025‑12‑12: ~59.1% vs 5‑day average ~53.0%, with rising trend and elevated, accelerating flags. • Squeeze_score_0_100 = 70, si_rising = true. - This mix of high short interest, rising short volume, sector news, and social buzz makes a continued squeeze/cover bid plausible, supporting a 5–8% intraday continuation. 5) Trade structure & intraday horizon - Plan: Momentum continuation / squeeze‑support bounce. - Entry: Ideally on early pullbacks into 11.50–11.65 after open. Avoid chasing above 11.80; beyond that, risk/reward versus 10.90 stop deteriorates. - Exit: Scale 50% around 12.10–12.20 (prior close 12.15 region), and hold the rest toward 12.30–12.40 if momentum, tape, and volume remain strong. - Stop: Hard stop at 10.90. If the stock breaks under 11.00 with heavy selling and sector/catalyst headlines go quiet or reverse, exit rather than hoping for a re‑squeeze. - Time horizon: 2–5 hours after the cash open; this is a day trade keyed off the morning/early‑afternoon momentum window. Close position by end of day regardless. 6) Why TLRY over IRBT or AVGO - IRBT: Bankruptcy and "equity holders expected to be wiped out" create extreme downside tail risk and structurally negative fundamentals; while a bounce is possible, risk of a further collapse or trading halt makes the long side too speculative. - AVGO: Very liquid and volatile, but MACD is in bearish momentum and price is below short‑term EMAs, suggesting a possible continuation of post‑earnings digestion rather than a clear long setup for today; also share price ~350 makes % swings costlier in dollar terms per share and the expected 4–5% upside is less clearly supported by current technicals. - TLRY combines: sector‑wide regulatory catalyst, bullish technical momentum that is not fully overbought, massive short interest, and strong social chatter, giving a more coherent case for a 5%+ intraday risk‑defined upside. 7) Options (if used at all) - Given the sub‑$15 price and large intraday ranges, common shares are better suited. Intraday options would suffer from wide spreads and rapid time decay; recommend stock only for this plan. Overall: A focused intraday long on TLRY with tight entry discipline, a clearly defined stop at 10.90, and profit targets aligned with prior highs and the 50‑day SMA region offers a reasonable shot at a 5–8% move while managing downside risk.