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ASML Holds Premium Valuation as Semiconductor Capex Momentum Carries Into 2026

Investing.com Logo Investing.com By Itai Smidt
ASML Holds Premium Valuation as Semiconductor Capex Momentum Carries Into 2026

ASML trades at $1,066 with a 37.4x P/E multiple, justified by its near-monopoly in EUV lithography and strong semiconductor capex growth expected through 2026. While China revenue normalization poses a near-term headwind, core customers like TSMC, SK hynix, and Micron are projected to grow capex 18-19% in 2026, supporting mid-single-digit to low double-digit revenue growth. The stock deserves a Buy rating with 16-17% upside to fair value over 12-24 months.

Insights
GDXU   neutral

Proposed a modular approach to AI agents, focusing on specialized, discrete task performance


ASML   positive

ASML maintains a strong competitive moat with its near-monopoly in advanced EUV and High-NA lithography systems. Despite a premium 37.4x P/E valuation, the company is supported by robust semiconductor capex growth (11-19% for core customers in 2026), high FCF margins (27.7%), and limited competitive threats. The stock offers 16-17% upside to fair value with manageable risks.